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Morgan Housel x.com
Good line: “The longer your holding period, the more chance that something you can’t forecast occurs.”
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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20 September
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25 August
20 August
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Their words
The demand for explanations of low fertility is entirely a demand for variables which will reduce these technical trends to near zero.
We Actually Know A Lot About Fertility Declinelymanstone.substack.com
19 August
13 July
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korrents.com
Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful.Their words
Model agreement this strong is unusual, though I'd note that agreement is not the same thing as skill as I discuss later on.
13 February
From one piece Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential” 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
And if my if my revenue is not a trillion dollars, if it's even 800 billion, there's no force on Earth. There's there's no hedge on Earth that could stop me from going bankrupt if I if I buy that much compute.
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on the basic hypothesis of you know, as you put it, within 10 years we'll get to, you know, you know, what I call kind of country of geniuses in a data center. I'm at like 90% on that. Um and it's hard to go much higher than 90% cuz the world is so unpredictable.
6 January
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Their words
Cycles are so hard to predict, because it’s easier to forecast in straight lines.
9 December 2024
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Their words
Until we develop better ways to bridge this gap - aligning what analysts understand with what is formally forecast - we'll continue to see the same pattern: reality consistently outperforming conservative predictions.
17 January 2024
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korrents.com
Expecting AI or longer lives to arrive in time makes people skip having a plan for falling birth rates at all.Their words
And they don’t see a need for a plan B, in case their forecast fails.
5 May 2021
13 November 2019
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