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Tiago Forte x.com
There are four ways to learn AI. Three of them are failing you.
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20 September
16 September
14 September
2 September
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Their words
I worry a lot about reliances on continuity failing at exactly the most dangerous time.
1 September
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Their words
sometimes I talk to people in DC and their their natural inclination is to say why don't you punish the model for doing these bad things like why don't you like bring it under heel and like uh like you know show it who's boss and that is a very dangerous way to address these issues right
31 August
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Their words
The key to developing a child is that they struggle and fail on their road to success supported by a caring adult. And you just want to run that loop.
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korrents.com
The U.S. military campaign against Iran is failing and has imposed massive strategic costs on the United States.Their words
the United States is not winning that war and the strategic costs have been massive.
25 August
11 August
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korrents.com
There is essentially no cognitive task humans do where AI improvement is failing to transfer at all.Their words
it's really hard for me to think of examples of cognitive tasks humans do where we're not seeing some transfer from AI improving.
7 August
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Their words
we've both come to believe that when transformation fails repeatedly, it's time for something different, and one of the tools that leaders need to add to their tool belts (and probably use a lot more frequently than they do today), is starting fresh, creating new entities (agencies and departments, for example) and either endowing them with new authorities or transferring authorities from legacy institutions to the new ones.
30 July
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Their words
And if they're completely failing, that's probably a good sign. If they're kind of able to do some of it but not very well, that's maybe not a great sign because that's a probably a a sign that the capability is starting to be present in those models and with more training data or larger scale models or or whatever it's likely to get better. So um you know look for something where the model succeeds 0% or 1% of the time not not 20%.
29 July
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The original point of the China Shock 1.0 discourse was not to foreground the unfairness of Chiense competition, so much as the malfunctioning of US policy and societal institutions in the face of concentrated globalization shocks.
27 July
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Their words
If you do not adjust the data for known biases, you're getting the wrong answer.
17 July
15 July
9 June
From one piece Sarah Paine - Why Putin and Xi can't escape geography 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
One, you're surrounding yourself by failing states. You can look at Russia and China and they're surrounded by some of the most dysfunctional places on the planet and you go, "Gee whiz, are they unlucky or they complicit?"
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Their words
You set them up to fail, you destabilize the rising, you ingest the failing, and you set up buffer zones in between, and you await the opportune moment to pounce and absorb. This is Vladimir Putin's game.
27 May
25 May
27 April
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Extending the lifespan of a brittle system just means the system eventually fails more spectacularly.
14 April
13 February
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The counterarguments against it are I'll politely call them fishy. Um, uh and yet it doesn't happen and we sell the chips because there's there's so much money. There's so much money riding on it.
25 December 2025
15 November 2025
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There is a feeling that a lot of tail-chasing in industrial improvement is due to interactions not being recognized.
5 October 2025
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And the third one is like we did a lot of actually PR uh prior to the service going out just to get the word out. Um and you know PR has has its time and place. Uh but I think doing it before you have validation that customers definitely want the thing is quite risky. It can lead to a lot of sunk cost uh once you get it out because you're you're just you know you need to see it through.
28 September 2025
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korrents.com
Academic talent is normally distributed, so some students failing is inevitable rather than anybody's fault.Their words
Academic talent is normally distributed throughout the population, and so some degree of failure is literally inevitable.
There Are No Miracles in Educationfreddiedeboer.substack.com
16 July 2025
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Their words
So, you while we kind of saved the system a lot, we bailed a lot of people out, they made us pay 5 billion dollars on the more the bad mortgages that Bear Stearns had done. And that's what made me make the statement I wouldn't do it again.
25 April 2025
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korrents.com
Comparing code coverage between passing and failing test runs is a cheap, effective way to localize a bug quickly.Their words
Differential coverage is cheap to compute and display, and when it's right, it can save a lot of time.
16 March 2025
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Their words
One of the most common megaproject failure modes is to not freak out soon enough, and having a concrete plan is the best antidote.
13 February 2025
6 January 2025
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I suspect that both Substack and OnlyFans may become a Girardian bubble. Everyone joins after hearing from the few people who succeed; the thousands who slink away after months of effort netted them a mere 17 subscribers usually do so quietly.
30 September 2024
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korrents.com
The Maya did not collapse; they moved a few kilometres out into perishable houses, and archaeology could not see it.Their words
I think it’s a failing of archeology to properly see what was happening. I think that most of those cities populations moved no more than 20 to 40 kilometers out and started their own farm, and they lived in perishable houses.
26 March 2024
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Their words
The only way to learn is by doing things. That we can read about how to swim and we can read about how to make uh uh uh a vegetarian maki roll, but you will not learn how to do it until you do it. And the reading, the listening is important preparation, but learning is the act of failing on our way to mastery.
4 March 2024
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Their words
So in historical terms and intellectual terms, what is happening today in the war between Russia and Ukraine is the vision on one level or another level that was formulated by the noble laureate Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, half Russian, half Ukrainian.
20 February 2024
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Their words
When a company fails, most people blame the CEO. I generally blame the board. Because the board's job is to make sure the right person's running the company, and if they're failing, help the person.
21 December 2023
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Their words
Unlike other interventions EA has sponsored, there are scant metrics for tracking the success or failure of investments in existential risk mitigation.
11 October 2023
1 October 2023
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It is a sign that Hayek was not so great at seeing the viewpoints of other people, and that (political moralizing aside) also should count as a weakness of him as an economist and social scientist.
11 October 2022
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Initial massive exaggeration of the importance of an effect gives way to more realistic, much smaller effects (which might still be useful) after people start doing better studies.
10 June 2022
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Their words
unaligned operation at a dangerous level of intelligence kills everybody on Earth and then we don’t get to try again.
28 October 2020
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Tested Advertising MethodsTheir words
If you want to learn the art and science of copywriting, then this is the book for you. An expert copywriter for decades, Caples breaks down in detail what makes a great ad versus a failing one. It's loaded with examples and the kind of insights only a veteran can provide. You do need to provide a little imagination as he focuses on mail in based advertising in magazines, which isn't common today. But really, how different is that from downloading free whitepapers today?
18 July 2019
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Their words
For one, if you don’t learn to hear the sounds in a new language, you’re doomed to have a hard time remembering it.
Discover the Key To Learning Pronunciationblog.fluent-forever.com
30 May 2019
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korrents.com
Failing to credit someone who deserves it does more harm than mistakenly crediting someone who doesn't.Their words
the harm of not crediting someone who deserves it is often greater than the harm of crediting someone who doesn't deserve it.
29 July 2018
24 April 2018
From one piece Institutional Failure as Surprise 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
The easiest way for an institution to protect its reputation is to stop attempting anything that could visibly fail.Their words
An easy way to avoid spoiling a reputation is by never failing, and an easy way to never visibly fail is to never undertake a task.
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Their words
Discerning whether an institution is near failure is a difficult epistemic problem. There are many outwardly visible pieces of institutions that do not reflect their actual health.
13 April 2018
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