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Simon Willison Blog
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20 September
18 September
17 September
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Their words
But I think this impulse to gild the lily and attribute the rise of Hitler to deep intellectual trends is an example of a pretty common fallacy of assuming that an incredibly important world event must have incredibly important roots.
16 September
14 September
9 September
8 September
2 September
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korrents.com
Happier couples respond to a partner's lapses by assuming distraction or tiredness rather than indifference.Their words
Happier couples tend to give each other the benefit of the doubt. Rather than assuming "My partner doesn't care," they're more likely to consider that the other is tired, distracted, overwhelmed or simply unaware of the impact of their behavior.
26 August
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Their words
It's it's so massive that there is no way that your game will be organically noticed anymore pretty much period.
19 August
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I remember anytime I would work with a big site on their performance problems, uh you could easily spend half a day, um you know, just looking at traces before you've even written any fixes at all. And now that we have LLMs, it's very quick to like reason through massive stack traces and actually be able to get down to fixes you can make.
17 August
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Their words
This is not to be complacent about the risks, but it is to urge caution when assuming that shifting the perceptions of other societies will ever be straightforward.
25 July
20 July
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Their words
And both of those are perfectly reasonable states in which to perform. And assuming that you have to be in flow to perform just isn't true if you look at like how you know athletes perform in the moment.
6 July
5 July
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korrents.com
The finance industry is built on false mathematical precision and prone to systemic collapse.Their words
Finance only to find that it is a house of cards built on false precision, as the world collapsed around us
15 June
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korrents.com
Giving LLMs explicit instructions, rather than assuming alignment, prevents emergent problems in multi-model systems.Their words
the best way with LLMs usually is to be explicit, since otherwise even if they're aligned they cause emergent problems.
10 June
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Their words
To be clear, these criteria are not best derived by looking at what would have worked in the past and assuming that it will work in the future—i.e., data mining—or simply asking an AI what to do. They are based on logical understandings converted into decision-making systems.
Principled Thinking and AI Need to Go Togetherraydalio.substack.com
25 May
11 April
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Likedrcmnd.app
Peace and WarTheir words
I am quoting Raymond Aron, who wrote a very important book published in the 1960s called Peace and War
3 April
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Their words
the likelihood of inspiring someone to build a competitor was too high, and the return on sharing was too low to justify the exposure. That threshold has effectively collapsed to zero.
The Increasing Risk of Building in Publicthebootstrappedfounder.com
22 March
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Their words
right now, that whole front end has been like kind of smooshed because many times we can just like prototype really really rapidly and kind of solidify some of what we're thinking in terms of like ideas and coding. So I fully expect that part of the outer loop is just going to be collapsed as well, right?
13 March
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Their words
Um, and then you stack on 70 this year, 80 next year, growing to 100 by 2030. You're at like 700 EV tools by the end of the decade. Um, 700 EV tools, three and a half tools per gigawatt. um assuming it's all allocated to AI which it's not but three and a half tools per gigawatt gets you to 200 gigawatts worth of AI chips for the data centers to deploy
9 February
17 October 2025
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Their words
all of the samples you get from models are silently collapsed. They're silently, this is not obvious if you look at any individual example of it. They occupy a very tiny manifold of the possible space of um sort of thoughts about content.
29 July 2025
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korrents.com
Industrial policy that grows a poor country’s economy does not automatically reduce its poverty.Their words
But, peering past the hype around Morowali reminds us that we should be careful before assuming that industrial policy must be pro-poor.
23 July 2025
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korrents.com
Quoting a number for P(doom) is a ridiculous notion, because it implies a precision that nobody actually has.Their words
Well, look, I don't have a P-Doom number. The reason I don't is because I think it would imply a level of precision that is not there. So I don't know how people are getting their P-Doom numbers. I think it's a little bit of ridiculous notion because what I would say is it's definitely non-zero and it's probably non-negligible.
1 July 2025
28 May 2025
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Their words
Assuming you are still hiring junior engineers (you really should be even in this AI era), the good ones will learn quickly and want to see career progress in their first few years of working.
5 May 2025
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Their words
We don’t think that the universe has had enough time to make them from stars that just merge. We know that two black holes can merge and make a bigger black hole and then those can merge and make a bigger black hole. We don’t think there’s been enough time for that.
1 November 2024
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Their words
Nicolas Eberstadt speculates that it’s all about rising autonomy. But that can’t explain why fertility has also plummeted in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and India, where women are often heavily restricted.
16 October 2024
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Their words
Actually by condemning those alternative point of view, archaeologists make it much more likely that the general public will accept those alternative point of view, because there is a great distrust of experts in our society today.
5 September 2024
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Their words
The U.S. Navy estimates that China’s shipbuilding capacity is 232 times our own.
22 April 2024
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But then you draw some conclusions from this, and what you end up realizing is you’ve been hilariously presumptuous because by saying, “I’m a typical observer in the universe,” you’re saying, “Typical observers in the universe are like me,” and that is completely unjustified by anything.
7 April 2024
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korrents.com
Market history teaches why things behave as they do, never what happens next, because the details never repeat.Their words
you want to learn the big lessons about why things behave the way they do without assuming the past is a direct guide to the future, because it’s not – most of the details are not repeatable
4 March 2024
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What I think would happen one way or another is the Soviet collapse in a different form, on somebody else’s watch at some later period in time.
23 January 2024
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Their words
China built half of the world’s ships (by gross tonnage) in 2022, while the US had 0.2 percent of capacity: in practice, this meant that while China builds hundreds of new ships a year, the US builds three to five.
3 December 2023
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Their words
The interesting thing is that if some of the dark matter does radiate, and I like to call it dark light because it’s light that we don’t see, but dark matter would see. It could radiate that and then it could perhaps collapse into a disk the same way ordinary matter collapsed into the Milky Way disk.
15 August 2023
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