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Essayist; writes Astral Codex Ten, previously Slate Star Codex.

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  Cheap superforecasting could revolutionize clinical trials and FDA regulation.

  Their words

  I run an advocacy group that works on reforming clinical trials and the FDA, and I think cheap superforecasting could revolutionize our field.

  AI Superforecasting Should Transform The FDAastralcodexten.com

Writes Stratechery, a subscription newsletter on the business and strategy of technology, and hosts the Dithering and Sharp Tech podcasts.

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  Making AI agent hardware and software free to consumers dramatically lowers the barrier to entry and brings AI's benefits to ordinary people who otherwise wouldn't adopt it.

  Their words

  what Meta has assembled is free (to consumers) hardware and software that dramatically reduces the barrier to entry for ordinary people looking to harness the power of agents, making the AI upside a lot more accessible to the masses who don't want to buy a Mac Mini.

  2026.37: Duo Threatsstratechery.com

Founder of Trilogy Software and principal of Alpha School, the private school network built around two hours a day of AI-delivered mastery learning.

From one piece How to Accelerate Learning & Improve Education | Joe Liemandt 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there

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  One-to-one tutoring has always been the best way to teach anybody anything; the only reason schooling was never built that way is that it was not affordable.

  Their words

  Individualized tutoring is the best model. A one-on-one model is the best model. A mentorship model, an apprentice mentor, that is the best model. It's not cost-effective.

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  The central defect of American schooling is that an eighth grader is delivered eighth-grade content by law, whatever he actually knows.

  America

  Their words

  And that's the problem in our current education system today is we are taking eighth graders and we are delivering them eighth grade content because that's what an eighth grade teacher does by law. They need to stand up and deliver the eighth grade content.

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US science and technology adviser to the president, director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy; previously US chief technology officer and chief operating officer of Scale AI.

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  AI will transform how scientific discovery is done, and within two or three years a working scientist's job will already look dramatically different.

  Their words

  If you are working on material science, if you are working on pharmaceuticals, if you are working on chemistry, you in 2 3 years or even today are doing your role as a scientist dramatically different because of artificial intelligence.

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Professor at Stanford working on robot learning and meta-learning; co-founded Physical Intelligence.

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  It is the diversity of a robot data set, not its size, that produces generalization: dropping the most diverse slice hurts far more than dropping a random fifth.

  Their words

  we find that the performance on held out tasks decreases dramatically. Whereas if we um just take out a random 20% of the data that's less diverse than the most diverse subset, the performance um only decreases a little bit. And so this suggests that actually having really diverse data plays an important role in enabling it to generalize to new tasks.

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Founder and CEO of Social Capital, a venture firm; co-host of the All-In podcast and an early Facebook executive. Writes an annual letter and a weekly newsletter on markets and technology.

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  Recursive self-improvement will increase AI capability very quickly from here.

  Their words

  Recursive self improvement will dramatically increase capability very quickly from here.

  @chamath on Xx.com

Novelist and critic, author of The Body Scout and Metallic Realms; writes the newsletter Counter Craft on fiction craft and the publishing industry.

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  A first-person 'I' narrator and a collective 'we' narrative voice produce dramatically different narrative effects.

  Their words

  Narratively, there is a dramatic difference between an "I" narrator and a collective "we" narrative voice.

  There Are More than Five POVscountercraft.substack.com

Geneticist at Harvard; reads ancient DNA to work out how populations moved and mixed, and wrote Who We Are and How We Got Here.

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  The selection signal on the genetics of schooling is not a European artefact: the same variants predict years of school in China, a population disconnected from Europe for the whole period.

  EuropeChina

  Their words

  So we just could not see a way this could happen by chance and once we saw that we really felt quite convinced that this was a real signal and that really somehow there has been natural selection to increase the genetic changes that today manifest themselves as more years of school at predicting more years of schooling.

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Mathematician at UCLA, working mainly in harmonic analysis and partial differential equations. Writes What's new, a long-running blog on their research, open problems and expository notes.

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  AI will revolutionise mathematics by giving it an experimental side: large-scale data on which methods work, rather than the careful solving of individual problems.

  Their words

  So, I think AI-type tools we really will will actually revolutionize the ex- the experimental side of math where where um you don't care so much about uh individual problems and and the process of solving them, but you you want to gather just large-scale data about about what things work, what things don't.

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Writer and academic, author of The Cult of Smart and How Elites Ate the Social Justice Movement; writes a daily newsletter on politics, education and culture.

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  The golden age of American schooling that reformers want to return to never existed anywhere.

  America

  Their words

  But please, stop saying things like “I just want us to get back to a world where kids were graduating high school with basic skills!” Because the world you’re referring to never existed.

  freddiedeboer.substack.com

Executive coach for product leaders. Previously a partner at GV (Google Ventures) and a product manager at Google. Writes at Bring the Donuts, including a standing essential-reading list for product managers.

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  The 15 Commitments of Conscious Leadership

  Their words

  This book dramatically changed me as a leader and as a person. It will help you develop self-awareness and connect deeply with your sense of purpose as a leader. If I could recommend one book to help you develop the human skills behind the

  bringthedonuts.com

Co-founder and chief scientist of Safe Superintelligence Inc., and previously co-founder and chief scientist of OpenAI.

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  The most fundamental thing wrong with today's models is not scale or efficiency but that they generalize dramatically worse than people do.

  Their words

  The thing which I think is the most fundamental is that these models somehow just generalize dramatically worse than people.

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Founding member of OpenAI and former director of AI at Tesla; creator of nanoGPT and the term "vibe coding".

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  Early schooling is not for accumulating knowledge but for booting up a brain, and physics does that better than any other subject.

  Their words

  It's about booting up a brain and I think physics uniquely boots up the brain the best.

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Founder of Telegram, and before it of VK.

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  Maths is essential schooling: it trains you to split big problems into small ones and to think for yourself, the same skill programming, project management and founding a company need.

  Their words

  Yeah. I still think math is essential. It's something that shapes your brain, it teaches you to rely on your logical thinking to split big problems into smaller parts, put them in the right sequence, solve them patiently, trying again if it doesn't work.

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Writer and academic, author of The Cult of Smart and How Elites Ate the Social Justice Movement; writes a daily newsletter on politics, education and culture.

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  Children settle into a band of academic performance early in life and stay in it, whatever their schooling does.

  Their words

  The brute reality is that most kids slot themselves into academic ability bands early in life and stay there throughout schooling.

  Education Doesn't Work 3.0freddiedeboer.substack.com

Writer and former McKinsey/BCG strategy consultant; author of The Pathless Path and Good Work, about leaving the default career track. Publishes the Boundless newsletter and podcast.

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  The Way Home: Discovering the Hero's Journey to Wholeness at Midlife

  Their words

  Ben's personal reflections on reinventing himself at "midlife" (though relatable at any age). I love how he leaned into a new version of himself without dramatically blowing up his life.

  pathlesspath.com

Founding member of OpenAI and former director of AI at Tesla; creator of nanoGPT and the term "vibe coding".

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  YubiKey

  Their words

  basically I strongly recommend the use of 2-3 YubiKeys to dramatically strengthen your digital security.

  karpathy.bearblog.dev

Founder and chief analyst of SemiAnalysis; reports on semiconductor supply chains, AI datacentre economics and what the chip export controls actually do.

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  Completely in-sourcing semiconductor manufacturing to the United States is possible, and it would take a decade and a trillion dollars.

  America

  Their words

  And so going back, can the US build it here? Yes, but it's going to take a ton of money. I truly think to revolutionize and completely in-source semiconductors would take a decade and a trillion dollars.

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Development economist; writes Global Developments, on growth, history and the numbers behind them.

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  South Korea and Taiwan began their miracles with far more schooling than their income implied, and African states with far less.

  Their words

  At independence, South Korea and Taiwan had far higher rates of primary education than most of Sub-Saharan Africa.

  global-developments.org

Writer on the intersection of technology and finance. Author of the Bits about Money newsletter and host of the Complex Systems podcast; previously at Stripe.

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  Margin Call

  Their words

  What it is stellar at—almost unmatched in fiction—is depicting archetypes that are both dramatically compelling and reasonably true to those working at various levels in the industry.

  bitsaboutmoney.com

Co-founder and CEO of Perplexity, an AI answer engine; previously a research scientist at OpenAI and a PhD student at UC Berkeley.

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  Real reasoning will have arrived when spending more compute at inference time reliably buys a dramatically better answer.

  Their words

  I think if we can achieve that amount of inference compute, where it leads to a dramatically better answer as you apply more inference compute, I think that will be the beginning of real reasoning breakthroughs.

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Economist at George Mason University. Writes Overcoming Bias on prediction markets, signalling and the far future, and wrote The Age of Em and The Elephant in the Brain.

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  Paying parents large sums of cash directly is the pronatal policy most likely to work, because every indirect policy has to guess what the real obstacle is.

  Their words

  Similarly, most recent discussions of how to promote fertility discuss how we might promote housing, inequality, schooling, day-care, etc., but few consider directly paying parents big amounts to have kids. As indirect approaches require us to guess what are the actual main obstacles to fertility, they are more likely to fail.

  Five Fertility Failsovercomingbias.com

Founder of Amazon in 1994 and of the space company Blue Origin in 2000.

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  Getting to orbit was solved in the 1950s and 60s, and the only interesting problem left in spaceflight is making access to orbit dramatically cheaper.

  startups

  Their words

  The only interesting problem is dramatically reducing the cost of access to orbit, which is, if you can do that, you open up a bunch of new endeavors that lots of start-up companies everybody else can do. One of our missions is to be part of this industry and lower the cost to orbit, so that there can be a renaissance, a golden age of people doing all kinds of interesting things in space.

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Co-founder of Netscape and of the venture firm Andreessen Horowitz. Argues at length for building things, mostly in short form.

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  AI will improve warfare by cutting wartime death rates, because commanders now decide under pressure on sharply limited information.

  Their words

  I even think AI is going to improve warfare, when it has to happen, by reducing wartime death rates dramatically. Every war is characterized by terrible decisions made under intense pressure and with sharply limited information by very limited human leaders.

  Why AI Will Save The Worldpmarca.substack.com

Co-founder of Netscape and of the venture firm Andreessen Horowitz. Argues at length for building things, mostly in short form.

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  Mass schooling was designed as a factory a century ago, has run on autopilot since, and does not fit the world it now serves.

  Their words

  we built that system and then we set it on autopilot um and it's been on autopilot for 100 years and here we are and it doesn't fit at all to the world we live in today.

  youtube.com

Singaporean writer and author of FRIENDLY AMBITIOUS NERD; blogs at visakanv.com about ambition, writing and thinking in public.

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  Antifragile

  Their words

  I remember Antifragile blowing my mind several times when I first read it. It didn't exactly have anything dramatically new to say that I hadn't heard before in some way, but it brought together things in a way that I found compelling. It made me rethink and reevaluate a lot of my life and gave me a useful frame for making sense of things with.

  visakanv.com