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David Spiegelhalter x.com
https://t.co/5MvjBuyABJ excellent blog by OSR's Ed Humpherson on the importance of looking at the variability in health metrics rather than just their average - and the tools available for doing this
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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18 September
12 September
11 September
9 September
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Their words
"Carbon intensity" is a greenwashing term: It measures pollution per barrel, allowing oil companies to claim climate progress even as rising production drives up total overall emissions.
7 September
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Their words
All those things you can easily measure in isolation, and you can also optimize for them quite locally. But these local optimizations do not produce global optimums, and the fewer of us are looking at the output, the less it matters.
Astra for Coding: Why Are We Doing This Again?lucumr.pocoo.org
5 September
2 September
24 August
11 August
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Facts and Fallacies of Software EngineeringTheir words
Facts and Fallacies of Software Engineering by Robert L. Glass. In essence, this is a book about an industry that refuses to learn. That was true 25 years ago when this book was published, and it's probably twice as true today. (Just think about all the AI adoption metrics being rolled out — back to productivity mistaken for lines of code produced, only more elaborate. And expensive). What I like about this book is that Glass doesn't present anything new. Quite the opposite, actually. Rather, it's about research lessons that we all should know, but tend to forget. Ever had to do an estimate, or plan according to a requirements spec? Or maybe you thought that enough eyeballs make all bugs shallow? Then this book is for you. A great work by a fantastic author.
8 August
4 August
3 August
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Their words
that your model is really table stakes, but eval and metrics, that's your most important. That's your strategic moat. So, build your eval before you build your technology.
2 August
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korrents.com
Deciding on averages is how product teams destroy the small group for whom a barely-used feature is everything.Their words
there are real downstream impacts to people's businesses that often come from just like a lack of nuance in understanding metrics, particularly averages.
31 July
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korrents.com
By every objective metric Stripe can see, there has never been a better time to start a business.Their words
Uh, business are uh, the time to revenue for new companies incorporated with Atlas is declining. And so, by all the kind of objective metrics we can look at, uh, it seems to be a better time than ever to start a business.
1 July
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Their words
Both hide the fact the company is simply choosing the climate-wrecking road, consciously.
25 June
16 June
3 May
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Their words
You can't delegate what you can't verify, so this requires first defining success criteria and metrics.
22 April
29 March
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Usesrcmnd.app
PostHogTheir words
Metrics, metrics, metrics. You can't improve what you don't measure.
22 March
13 March
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korrents.com
Anthropic saw the coming shortage of chips before Google did, and bought Google's own TPUs out from under it.Their words
Because Enthropic saw it before Google. And then Google had Nano Banano and Gemini 3 which caused their user metrics to skyrocket and leadership at Google was like oh and then they started making the statement of we have to double compute every is it 6 months or I don't remember the exact number that they said.
2 March
6 February
7 January
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Recommendsaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
How to Lie with StatisticsTheir words
Product managers need a solid foundation in statistics to be metrics-driven. This classic book is a lively and fun book will leave you smarter and more skeptical.
9 December 2025
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Their words
the marketing metrics the finance department has faith in and demands from marketing are not those metrics which are most conducive to building brand and customer value over time. They're the metrics which are most conducive to selling tech solutions to the companies.
27 November 2025
16 October 2025
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korrents.com
Striking down the boring blockers one by one moves retention and activation as visibly as any new feature does.Their words
we literally at some point had a team that would that was called blockers and they just went and one by one struck them down and each time we saw uh improvement in retention, improvement in activation the metrics for as we addressed each one you could literally see the change in the graph.
5 October 2025
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korrents.com
Growth is not metrics hacking: the job is to connect users to the value of the product.Their words
I like to describe growth as the the job is to connect users to the value of your product.
21 September 2025
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Their words
Because it's like okay we got these numbers and the numbers go up. It's like no, the fact that you still have to choose which things you look at is an art, not a science. And your interpretation of if the number went up 5%, is that good? Is that not good? Is also an interpretation and is an is an art, not a science.
25 June 2025
22 June 2025
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korrents.com
LLM-based evaluation methods are more reliable and nuanced than traditional automated metricsTheir words
This is why model-based evaluation is increasingly popular-it offers more reliable and nuanced evals than traditional metrics.
21 May 2025
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Their words
We live in the era of the symbolic executive, when "being good at stuff" matters far less than the appearance of doing stuff, where "what's useful" is dictated not by outputs or metrics that one can measure but rather the vibes passed between managers and executives that have worked their entire careers to escape the world of work.
18 April 2025
3 December 2024
19 June 2024
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Their words
So most people, when they advertise new context window increase, they talk a lot about finding the needle in the haystack sort of evaluation metrics and less about whether there’s any degradation in the instruction following performance. So I think that’s where you need to make sure that throwing more information at a model doesn’t actually make it more confused.
29 February 2024
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korrents.com
Accessibility has failed as a way to make computers usable for disabled users, after thirty years of trying.Their words
Accessibility has failed as a way to make computers usable for disabled users. My metrics for usable design are the same whether the user is disabled or not: whether it’s easy to learn the system, whether productivity is high when performing tasks, and whether the design is pleasant — even enjoyable — to use.
21 December 2023
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Their words
Unlike other interventions EA has sponsored, there are scant metrics for tracking the success or failure of investments in existential risk mitigation.
7 December 2022
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Their words
A handful of Silicon Valley executives made the choice for us, in pursuit of adoption metrics and a “magical” user experience.
Why encrypted backup is so importantblog.cryptographyengineering.com
28 October 2022
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