A lot of UI exists because software can’t understand what you want. Menus, settings screens, dashboards, filters: much of it is a human-accessible API to a dumb machine. Smart machines need much less UI.
A model looking like it is becoming smarter, attempting shenanigans less often, and more often doing what you want, but getting better at hiding its actions when it wants to do that, is exactly the scary combination.
The smartest people I know have strong opinions weakly held and change them when new information arises The dumbest people I know keep their opinions the same just so they can remain consistent Time changes too fast try remain consistent, better to sail the waves to wherever they are taking you!
The strongest argument I see for continuing to train much smarter models quickly is the need to build defensive systems against the dangers posed by other AI.
every week i see a new benchmark that ranks claude code last
and everyone pats themselves on the back for not using claude code and being "smarter"
and it's still #1 and still growing faster than most of the other things on the list
this has been going on for a year
You're not actually getting a like smarter model. like the intelligence of the model is is what drives its ability to attend to all of the tokens in the context window to figure out on the next turn which parts of this 100k or 200k context window are the most relevant to making the decision of like what is the next tool we call and doing that over and over again in a loop.
it's not that humans have become smarter over it's not that they evolved to become smarter over, you know, the past 50,000 years. It's that humans are able to do a lot more today than they were back in caveman times because there have been billions of humans thinking for a long time and building off of each other's accumulated knowledge.
So you kind of got these two separate things that just for historically contingent reasons had both sort of matured around sort of let's say 1980 or so.
But, I can tell you that there are at least two more cycles left in this, and that means they will be at least 16 times smarter than they are today, and that is going to cause all of knowledge work to be subsumed by this stuff.
The bitter lesson is don't try to be smarter than the AI, okay? You think that you've got special knowledge. The humans bring special domain knowledge to this problem and we're going to teach it something to AI and it will be smarter. What we found was bigger is smarter. Always.
The the chatbot is already running into limitations of, you know, making it smarter doesn't really help the average consumer that much. But I don't think that's a limitation of AI models. I don't think that's evidence that, you know, the models are are the models are good enough and they're they're, you know, them getting better doesn't matter to the economy.
A product manager will be called upon to make scores of decisions every day. In none of these cases will you have all of the information you want, and you’ll rarely be 100% confident. Poker champion turned decision researcher Annie Duke will help you learn how to be comfortable with uncertainty.
Product managers need a solid foundation in statistics to be metrics-driven. This classic book is a lively and fun book will leave you smarter and more skeptical.
A decade on, it already feels possible that in the future, commentators will argue that this specific fruitful synthesis lit the fuse on evolutionary cultural anthropology’s explosion (with due apologies to earlier books from L. L. Cavalli-Sforza, E. O. Wilson, Peter Richerson and Robert Boyd).
the other thing I think people don’t often talk about is probability of doom without AI. So there’s all these other ways that humans can destroy themselves and it’s very possible, at least I believe so, that AI will help us become smarter, kinder to each other, more efficient.
But we do not have experience with the kinds of problems we’ll face if we build machines that are smarter and more capable than us, so I feel much less sanguine that an adaptation-based strategy will help us there.
And so for me, the only way I can learn how to work smart is by working very, very hard and knowing that there's no shortcuts. And then when I finally figure out what smart is, when I work smart and work hard, it is that much better.
My second book is about the science of productivity, and how to succeed with less stress and struggle, to get more done without sacrificing what we care about most.
And the punchline is the equation is much smarter than Albert Einstein because Albert Einstein did not know about the Big Bang, he didn’t know about gravitational waves, he didn’t know about black holes but his equation did.
The problem is, when humans went bipedal, our pelvises got smaller, and as humans got smarter, our heads got bigger. So evolution had to get creative. Its solution: all human babies would be premies, born when they were still small enough to pass through a human pelvis.
The Vanmoof is much smarter — the brain and software within it are refined, the app good, the acceleration curves smooth — but the bike is all custom components, and they aren't the highest quality at that.
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