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18 September
14 September
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Their words
The winner would then be the AIs, not us. That is not to say that the China issue is not real, hence the export controls and attempted international agreement.
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korrents.com
Robots will not be able to beat the best human basketball players in a full game by 2040.Their words
I bet against this timeline and say they will not. The winner has to buy a round of gelato.
13 September
7 September
4 September
2 September
31 August
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Their words
The level of academics that those students know is very low because the parents have basically abandoned that and said, "I care all about the life skills." For parents who really care about academics, those kids crush it.
27 August
19 August
14 August
12 August
From one piece Stop being skeptical about AI for development with Charity Majors 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Kind leaders usually do beat sociopaths in the same role, but only if they are also good at business.Their words
it's it's not enough to be a good person. I believe that people who are kind and care about people can and and usually do do better than sociopaths in the same roles, but only if they're good at business.
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Their words
It's like they have all the wisdom of their most senior engineers looking at every single diff and that is fantastic. Which means that you don't have to worry about remembering and looking and nitpicking and all the things that we're not good at anyway
11 August
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Their words
I would say that I expect like full automation of AR&D perhaps somewhere around like 2031 2030 and then getting to like the like beats all humans on the job milestone. Maybe I expect median around 2033
30 July
From one piece Jeff Dean: The 1% Rule for Building in AI 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I mean I think like if you look at uh my colleagues work on say alpha fold that was a very specific model for uh protein folding and it was highly successful um and was able to really handle that domain quite well so that all of a sudden you now have this amazing tool and model that can give you answers to questions about proteins and their structure um really effectively um but it's not a general model it's a very specific one and there are other I domains where that kind of approach can work really well. Uh maybe in material science or chip design or things like that that uh will enable you to leverage the capabilities of a very accurate but but niche model uh to do things that are hard today.
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Their words
Yeah, I mean it's a little different, but I think uh you're going to see more and more uh uh high performance and um low energy uh inference hardware systems because I think everyone is now realizing that inference is the key to making you know these agent-based systems be available to more and more people and that latency is really important and that specialization of the hardware is a really key way you can make uh things that are more energy efficient and lower latency than more general purpose uh computational devices like say GPUs or TPUs
28 July
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Their words
I think startups tend to win when um the sort of like technology landscape is moving very quickly. uh when costs are coming down when cycle times are short and all of those things are happening right now.
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Their words
it it won't work to try to repatriate uh the the manufacturing that left the US. Um that's a uh you you don't you don't beat China at its own game. What you do is invent the future, invent the next wave of manufacturing uh and build that here.
22 July
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On changing their mind
If you had asked me this question in the lead up to my 2019 book, Ultralearning, I would have said no. I was a strong advocate for doing hard problem solving and the associated mental effort it requires as a way to learn difficult skills.
14 July
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Lovedrcmnd.app
Apple Pro Display XDRTheir words
Now I just run everything off the XPS 14, connected to an Apple XDR 6K 32" (nobody has yet managed to beat this, and I've owned it for years). It's a great, simple setup.
9 July
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Their words
But they just by virtue of having less people to coordinate they can often move faster and make um better decisions a little bit less design by committee.
9 June
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Their words
Also, not only is it far cheaper to send things by sea, it is far more secure. If you're going to run the Belt Road thing, uh or it's it's the belt part of it, the land part, um you've got to control the whole thing end to end. You're going through some of the most unstable places there are.
12 May
9 February
23 January
1 January
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Their words
The bar for good enough for AI GTM is not as high as we think.
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Their words
But you cannot outwork the person who's working on a better thing. And so um it is possible if you really grind maybe you can work 10% harder or 20% harder than you are now. But if you work on the right thing you get 100x of the results or thousandx the results. And so what you need I I almost feel like we should change the definition of what it means to work hard. It should not only mean putting in the hours. It should also mean outthinking the other person.
22 October 2025
16 October 2025
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korrents.com
In a product review a prototype beats a static mock, and a static mock beats a lot of words.Their words
at least my product reviews and uh product conversations, I feel like prototypes beat static mocks and static mocks beat lots of words.
7 October 2025
5 October 2025
From one piece Finding hidden growth opportunities in your product | Albert Cheng (Duolingo, Grammarly, Chess.com) 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I saw some of the highest performers just being people that had very high agency, had that clock speed, had that energy. Um, yes, they they cared about the mission, but they didn't necessarily need to have deep experience on that matter. And in fact, sometimes that experience could be a crutch in certain ways. Especially in this world where the grounds are shifting so fast with AI, a lot of your like learn habits actually need to be intentionally discarded. You know, you need to have a beginner's mind on this type of stuff.
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Their words
I think if you have especially a B2B feature where you may have some lock in reverse trials can be super powerful. You just want to get people in there. You don't need to ask for their credit card because they're using your CRM or they're investing quite a lot of time in like building out, you know, material and content. And so by the time that window drops, you actually like feel, oh man, I probably should keep this and and start paying. I think for a lot of consumer products, it's a little bit harder for that to work. And so I've typically seen more just normal free trials be be the norm.
12 September 2025
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Their words
Like people are people and robots are robots. Like the the better analogy for the robot, it's it's like your car or a bulldozer. Uh like uh it has much lower maintenance requirements. You can put them into all sorts of weird places and they don't have to look like people at all.
11 September 2025
4 September 2025
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Their words
You're dominant in contests, particularly with conspecifics. If you're trying to win a territory or win mating rights, bigger things usually beat up smaller things. So there's going to be selection favoring them. But then big things don't usually do well in extinction events, so that tends to reset the clock by killing off the big stuff, and then smaller stuff does better again.
24 August 2024
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Their words
If you buy a handful of index funds, sit on them for decades and never do another thing, you're likely to outperform nearly everyone who tries to beat the market by trading-including most professionals.
5 July 2024
23 May 2024
19 December 2023
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Lovedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Archives of Joy: Reflections on Animals and the Nature of BeingTheir words
The secret pulse-beat of joy is what Jean-François Beauchemin explores in Archives of Joy: Reflections on Animals and the Nature of Being
17 November 2023
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Their words
A lot of people think that to make deterrence work, you have to be able to beat the Chinese and therefore, you need a much bigger military. And I don't think over time that's possible. I think it's probably not even possible now to beat the Chinese in a war over Taiwan or in a war in the South China Sea.
31 October 2023
12 October 2023
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