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Beware big swings in midterm forecasts
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20 September
Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.
17 September
Security technologist and author of books including Applied Cryptography and Data and Goliath; writes the Schneier on Security blog and the monthly Crypto-Gram newsletter.
16 September
Writes Hyperdimensional, a newsletter on AI policy and governance. A White House AI policy adviser in 2025; joined OpenAI on 6 July 2026 to lead its Strategic Futures team.
nobody should patronize those who newly have opinions about third party evaluators. non-experts forming opinions fast is part of the american tradition. the constitution itself was, in a very important sense, vibe coded by 20 somethings with concepts of a plan. but newbies being fleeced is also part of the american tradition. “caveat emptor” is a provision of a contract signed by an adult, not some god-given right to be treated as something other than a little child. you will be treated as a child no matter what. you are the buyer. it is your job to beware. America Related
14 September
Programmer and writer; co-founder of Stack Overflow and Discourse, and author of the Coding Horror blog, which he has written since 2004.
"The effort from Conway’s San Francisco-based investment firm SV Angel, dubbed Project Blueprint, intends to fill a vacuum between policymakers and the AI industry ahead of a midterm cycle where Democrats are poised to make gains in Congress" politico.com
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Economist; writes In My Tribe, and wrote The Three Languages of Politics.
12 September
Mathematical physicist at UC Riverside. Wrote This Week's Finds in Mathematical Physics and now the Azimuth blog on mathematics, physics and environmental science.
The Republican Party's midterm convention used the traditional red, white and blue decorations - but added Trump's favorite color: gold. I recommend that they use a new US flag. The traditional colors were red for blood, white for purity and blue for justice. The new version features red for blood, gold for wealth and purple for monarchy. Related
8 September
Writer on habits and decision-making; author of Atomic Habits and the 3-2-1 newsletter, and publisher of long-running book recommendation lists.
Beware the student of one teacher. A good idea spirals into dogma when it gets applied to everything and stretched beyond the areas where it is useful. Remain open and embrace a lot of teachers. Related
5 September
American historian of Central and Eastern Europe and the Holocaust; author of Bloodlands, On Tyranny and On Freedom, and writer of the newsletter 'Thinking about...'.
3 September
Writer and researcher, founder of New Science; writes essays on science funding, sleep research, productivity and ambition at guzey.com.
The "ex-OpenAI" safety grifters are on a whole another level. So many people who did nothing of substance for years now launder their former affiliation to sound like technical experts to spread propaganda and disinfo. Beware. OpenAI Related
Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.
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Beware big swings in midterm forecasts
2 beliefs · natesilver.net
2 September
Co-founder of Superlogical, started in 2026 to build server-side terminal infrastructure; creator of Ghostty. Co-founded HashiCorp and created Vagrant and Terraform before that.
Beware people obsessed with outcomes instead of building outcome machines. Its worse than ever with AI, but these people existed before. Short term results above all else, etc. Don't fall into the trap. Invest in building strong fundamentals, invisible supports, and outcomes flow like water. An outcome machine. Related
22 August
Brazilian software engineer, creator and maintainer of GoReleaser; works on Copilot CLI at GitHub. Writes about tooling and his setup at carlosbecker.com.
13 July
Writes Very Serious, a newsletter on politics, the economy and culture, and hosts the podcast of the same name.
8 May
Geneticist at Harvard; reads ancient DNA to work out how populations moved and mixed, and wrote Who We Are and How We Got Here.
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And really from a statistical point of view, what happens at these times of migration is there's just huge fluctuations in frequencies, and these are extremely uninformative times for looking and detecting natural selection.
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2 April
Professor of finance at NYU's Stern School of Business, known for his work on valuation. He publishes his data, spreadsheets and classes free at Damodaran Online and writes the Musings on Markets blog.
Beware the ides of March? That was true in 2026 as the month started with war, with questions about how long and to what end, and ended with war, and the same questions. Oil prices were up, stock prices were down, but the market was remarkably well-behaved. bit.ly
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