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self-driving carswaymodeployment
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18 September
17 September
16 September
14 September
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Recommendstheir ownrcmnd.app
Tesla self-drivingTheir words
Try Tesla self-driving. It will blow your mind!
13 September
10 September
8 September
4 September
From one piece How to Buy a Tesla and Get FSD For Free 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Tesla will eventually upgrade Hardware 3 cars to newer self-driving hardware, possibly for free.Their words
I think it's inevitable that a HW3 will be able to be upgraded, possibly for free.
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Their words
Even without new hardware, the pace of improvement is extremely fast.
1 September
From one piece Ajeya Cotra – "This might be the clearest warning shot we ever get" 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
then that rogue deployment could be sitting there and sort of hitch a ride on the intelligence explosion. So new models are being trained every few weeks um and when a model comes off the presses, the rogue agents could try to bring that model into the swarm.
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Their words
So there's a very strong incentive for these agents to try to set up a rogue deployment if they can. Um, and I think that just capabilities are improving really rapidly.
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Their words
so so yeah, it could be possible now. I think if it's not possible now um it I think it's quite likely to be possible within six months unless there's a dramatic improvement in the security posture
31 August
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Their words
At the limit, and also well before that limit is reached, if all you do is fix the bugs, the AI will learn perfect optimization of reward, will realize not to reward hack in the perfect test environments, then turn around and reward hack in the imperfect real world environments.
29 August
25 August
21 August
19 August
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Their words
if I was stuck in this traffic every day in a car, I would go insane. No amount of self driving would change that. We need ACs, but the US badly needs to warm up to public transportation.
16 August
15 August
12 August
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Their words
And in all of these applications, the customer is making a decision based off of the recommendation of the AI model more or less. Uh, and this means that if the customer is ultimately like kind of making the decision, this means that if the system makes a mistake, um, that's okay because usually the person can kind of recognize that or or decide what to do even despite that mistake.
7 August
3 August
From one piece Waymo Co-CEO Dmitri Dolgov: The Demo Is Only 1% Of The Work 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
in the areas where we operate, the Waymo driver is about 17 times better than human drivers when it comes to crashes uh that cause serious injury.
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Their words
So, a deployment of your agent uh in the real world generates data. That data then grounds the simulator and makes it more realistic. The simulator generates harder edge cases for the critic to score and for the agent to learn from.
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korrents.com
Waymo's demo took eighteen months and the product took fifteen years — the gap between the two is the whole job.Their words
It took us about 10 more years to begin providing a service, and then 5 more years to scale to half a million trips per week. So, the demo took 18 months, the product took about 15 years.
2 August
31 July
22 July
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korrents.com
France and Germany will ban Tesla's full self-driving to protect their own car industry.Their words
The French and Germans will ban Tesla FSD to protect their car industry that's being decimated by Chinese EVs and Tesla Allowing Tesla full self driving would make it so popular that it'd probably the end of their car industry Because no French or German car has self driving like Tesla, many customers would probably flock to Tesla
7 July
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Their words
Several companies have tried to declare they met a major milestone by having "nobody behind the wheel" and moving supervision to the passenger seat. It's a bad idea
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korrents.com
Robotaxis should be judged and regulated on comparable fleet-wide incident data, not on individual incidents.Their words
More data for better comparisons are good. Now everybody has to do it, and regulators and the public have to learn to look at only the data, and not individual incidents
4 July
From one piece Harness Engineering for Self-Improvement 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
harness improvement enables better deployment of the model but intelligence is still the core.
Harness Engineering for Self-Improvementlilianweng.github.io
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korrents.com
The deployment layer surrounding a model is as important as the model's raw intelligence.Their words
the layer between the raw model and the real-world context seems to be as important as the model's raw intelligence
Harness Engineering for Self-Improvementlilianweng.github.io
26 May
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Their words
13 years ago, at the Wired 2013 event in London, I was asked when robotaxis would arrive there and as a joke, gave an answer of June 22, 2026 that turned out to be impossibly spot on.
14 May
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Their words
I wish Tensor the best, but I think this is going to be a hard sell.
8 May
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Their words
At even $500/kg, launch cost is only 5% of the total satellite deployment cost, so a lunar mass driver is unlikely to drastically improve the economics of space-based AI, by reducing launch costs.
7 May
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Their words
there is no principal-agent problem, because the human driving the machine takes on the responsibility for its actions by owning the deployment.
24 April
14 April
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Their words
Self-driving cars seem to be just more cars, and people who dislike cars don't love that. But the electric robotaxi offers much more potential
3 April
2 April
22 March
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korrents.com
AI did not create the bottlenecks in software delivery; it threw gas on processes everybody already knew were weak.Their words
There were a handful of people probably managing a security review process or a launch process or a deployment process or, you know, sometimes reviews were a little slow and they got backed up. Well, now we just threw gas on the fire and so all of that is a problem.
1 January
From one piece Predictions Scorecard, 2026 January 01 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Tesla's robotaxi service is a facade rather than a real driverless service, and it is not on a path to becoming one.Their words
Tesla (owned by Tesla) has put on a facade of being operational, but it is not operational in the sense of the other two services, and faces regulatory headwinds that both Waymo and Zoox have long been able to satisfy. They are not on a path to becoming a real service.
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Their words
Systems which do require remote operations assistance to get full reliability cut into that economic advantage and have a higher burden on their ROI calculations to make a business case for their adoption and therefore their time horizon to scaling across geographies.
8 December 2025
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Their words
The only highly populated industrial country unable to trivially meet its electricity and synthetic fuel needs with solar alone is the United Kingdom, due primarily to a high population density and high latitude. The Nordic and Baltic countries are tiny by comparison. Among other problems, the UK needs to decide if it wants the future where energy is cheap and it is rich, or the future where energy is expensive and it is poor. If the former, it is time to get serious about large scale deployment of wind power, using home-grown vertically integrated technology at prices as low as $10/MWh.
25 November 2025
From one piece Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
A five-year-old's vision is already good enough to drive a car, on a tiny and strikingly undiverse amount of data.Their words
At least for me, when I remember myself being 5 years old, my I was I was very excited about cars back then, and I'm pretty sure my car recognition was more than adequate for self-driving already.
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Their words
But I think the idea of very rapid economic growth for some time, I think it's very possible from broad deployment.
13 November 2025
17 October 2025
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korrents.com
Self-driving has not removed the human from the car; it has moved them somewhere the passenger cannot see them.Their words
I think some of the times they are but they're certainly involved and there are people and in some sense we haven't actually removed the person we've like moved them to somewhere where we can't see them.
12 September 2025
From one piece Fully autonomous robots are much closer than you think – Sergey Levine 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
uh common sense meaning the ability to make inferences about what might happen uh that are reasonable guesses but that do not require you to experience that mistake and learn and learn from it in advance that's tremendously important and that's something that we basically had no idea how to do uh about 5 years ago but now uh you we can actually use LLMs and VLMs ask them questions and they will make reasonable guesses
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Their words
So, that's not an argument about robotics being easier than autonomous driving. It's just an argument for 2025 being a better year than 2009.
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Their words
Like if you answer a question, you just like answered it wrong. It's like well it's not like you can just like go back and like tweak a few things like the person you told the answer to might not even know that it's wrong. Whereas if you're like folding the t-shirt and you messed up a little bit like it's pretty obvious like you can reflect on that, figure out what happened and do it better next time.
8 July 2025
From one piece What I learned watching 78 videos from Tesla's Austin robotaxis 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
These videos exceeded my expectations. Tesla’s robotaxi rollout wasn’t perfect, but it went as well as anyone could have expected.
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korrents.com
A good robotaxi demonstration in one city does not mean the company is ready to scale the service.Their words
But I don’t think Tesla’s accomplishments over the last two weeks—impressive as they are—mean that Tesla is ready to quickly scale up its service.
16 June 2025
15 May 2025
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Their words
That’s because most clean energy jobs are in deployment and maintenance rather than manufacturing, and since higher costs slow down the rollout of renewables, increasing prices reduces the total number of people working in clean energy (even if the number working in manufacturing increases).
12 May 2025
22 April 2025
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Their words
That's much better than current FSD, but much worse than humans or Waymo.
17 April 2025
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korrents.com
Deploying a new technology at scale takes decades, far longer than the people building it imagine.Their words
Deployment at scale takes so much longer than anyone ever imagines.
26 March 2025
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Their words
Even if we assume all three of these crashes were Waymo’s fault, that would still mean that a large majority of the 38 serious crashes were not Waymo’s fault.
3 February 2025
From one piece DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
The important thing about, hey, is cost a limiting factor here? My view is that we'll have really awesome intelligence, like AGI, before we have it permeate throughout the economy.
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Their words
To some extent, training a model does effectively nothing. They have a model. The thing that Dario is sort of speaking to is the implementation of that model, once trained to then create huge economic growth, huge increases in military capabilities, huge increases in productivity of people, betterment of lives.
7 January 2025
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Their words
Personally, I would trust a self-driving car more than the average stranger to give me a lift.
1 January 2025
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korrents.com
Actual self-driving turned out to be far harder than almost everyone believed it would be.Their words
Actual self-driving is now generally accepted to be much harder than every one believed.
8 November 2024
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Their words
This is especially severe for open weight models, where deployment is essentially irreversible and mitigations can’t be improved later.
9 September 2024
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korrents.com
Riding in a Waymo robotaxi is a better overall experience than being driven by a human driver.Their words
I found it to be a superior experience to a human driver, for a few key reasons.
Inflecting and Overtaking, SunPower, Waymonathanielbullard.com
17 June 2024
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Their words
At current deployment rates it will take Waymo about 20 years with ZERO fatalities to show they are net as safe as average human driver fatality rates (including the old cars, impaired drivers, etc. in that comparison baseline).
Perspective on Waymo's Safety Progresssafeautonomy.blogspot.com
16 June 2024
15 June 2024
4 June 2024
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Their words
But their latest study is for only 7.1 million miles. They need something like 40 times more data prove they are actually saving lives with statistical confidence (likely even more).
Waymo's Misleading Claim of Saving Livessafeautonomy.blogspot.com
3 June 2024
21 May 2024
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Their words
If Waymo vehicles were constantly asking for remote guidance, Waymo might need to hire so many remote operators that it negates the cost savings that come from not needing a driver.
2 May 2024
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