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Tim Urban x.com
Autonomous driving is amazing but the true dream will be when the car drops me off right where I’m going and goes off to deal with parking on its own, and then comes back and picks me up when I’m ready to leave
The subject this post names, from the same vocabulary the directory files beliefs under, and the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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18 September
16 September
14 September
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Recommendstheir ownrcmnd.app
Tesla self-drivingTheir words
Try Tesla self-driving. It will blow your mind!
13 September
11 September
10 September
8 September
6 September
4 September
From one piece How to Buy a Tesla and Get FSD For Free 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Tesla will eventually upgrade Hardware 3 cars to newer self-driving hardware, possibly for free.Their words
I think it's inevitable that a HW3 will be able to be upgraded, possibly for free.
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Their words
Even without new hardware, the pace of improvement is extremely fast.
3 September
1 September
31 August
25 August
21 August
19 August
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Their words
if I was stuck in this traffic every day in a car, I would go insane. No amount of self driving would change that. We need ACs, but the US badly needs to warm up to public transportation.
7 August
6 August
3 August
From one piece Waymo Co-CEO Dmitri Dolgov: The Demo Is Only 1% Of The Work 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
in the areas where we operate, the Waymo driver is about 17 times better than human drivers when it comes to crashes uh that cause serious injury.
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korrents.com
Waymo's demo took eighteen months and the product took fifteen years — the gap between the two is the whole job.Their words
It took us about 10 more years to begin providing a service, and then 5 more years to scale to half a million trips per week. So, the demo took 18 months, the product took about 15 years.
31 July
30 July
22 July
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korrents.com
France and Germany will ban Tesla's full self-driving to protect their own car industry.Their words
The French and Germans will ban Tesla FSD to protect their car industry that's being decimated by Chinese EVs and Tesla Allowing Tesla full self driving would make it so popular that it'd probably the end of their car industry Because no French or German car has self driving like Tesla, many customers would probably flock to Tesla
14 July
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Recommendsaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Wrong NumberTheir words
Following along as he picks data fallacies apart is a lot of fun, and I can't wait to read the whole book.
7 July
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Their words
Several companies have tried to declare they met a major milestone by having "nobody behind the wheel" and moving supervision to the passenger seat. It's a bad idea
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korrents.com
Robotaxis should be judged and regulated on comparable fleet-wide incident data, not on individual incidents.Their words
More data for better comparisons are good. Now everybody has to do it, and regulators and the public have to learn to look at only the data, and not individual incidents
26 May
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Their words
13 years ago, at the Wired 2013 event in London, I was asked when robotaxis would arrive there and as a joke, gave an answer of June 22, 2026 that turned out to be impossibly spot on.
14 May
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Their words
I wish Tensor the best, but I think this is going to be a hard sell.
14 April
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Their words
Self-driving cars seem to be just more cars, and people who dislike cars don't love that. But the electric robotaxi offers much more potential
3 April
2 April
22 March
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korrents.com
Release management is human group sense-making, and it does not scale to the volume of change AI now produces.Their words
so many times that process has been managed by humans because you're selecting the right candidate build and you're verifying it and you're thinking, you know, you're figuring out cherry picks and then you like rebundle and then you send it out and that doesn't scale if you have one or two or a handful of people trying to make group decisions and do group sense making.
12 February
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Their words
I- i- like, we are in a stage where I'm not building the code base to be perfect for me, but I wanna build a code base that is very easy for an agent to navigate.
1 January
From one piece Predictions Scorecard, 2026 January 01 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Tesla's robotaxi service is a facade rather than a real driverless service, and it is not on a path to becoming one.Their words
Tesla (owned by Tesla) has put on a facade of being operational, but it is not operational in the sense of the other two services, and faces regulatory headwinds that both Waymo and Zoox have long been able to satisfy. They are not on a path to becoming a real service.
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Their words
Systems which do require remote operations assistance to get full reliability cut into that economic advantage and have a higher burden on their ROI calculations to make a business case for their adoption and therefore their time horizon to scaling across geographies.
29 December 2025
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Lovedrcmnd.app
Karla’s ChoiceTheir words
His son Harkaway picks up where his father left off, adding a bracing entry to the canon.
25 November 2025
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korrents.com
A five-year-old's vision is already good enough to drive a car, on a tiny and strikingly undiverse amount of data.Their words
At least for me, when I remember myself being 5 years old, my I was I was very excited about cars back then, and I'm pretty sure my car recognition was more than adequate for self-driving already.
17 October 2025
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korrents.com
Self-driving has not removed the human from the car; it has moved them somewhere the passenger cannot see them.Their words
I think some of the times they are but they're certainly involved and there are people and in some sense we haven't actually removed the person we've like moved them to somewhere where we can't see them.
30 September 2025
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Their words
Well, it's in line with my overall philosophy. I think competition leads to progress. If you want to create an ideal process for selecting the most qualified people for certain specific tasks you have in mind, what can be better than a competition?
12 September 2025
From one piece Fully autonomous robots are much closer than you think – Sergey Levine 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
uh common sense meaning the ability to make inferences about what might happen uh that are reasonable guesses but that do not require you to experience that mistake and learn and learn from it in advance that's tremendously important and that's something that we basically had no idea how to do uh about 5 years ago but now uh you we can actually use LLMs and VLMs ask them questions and they will make reasonable guesses
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Their words
So, that's not an argument about robotics being easier than autonomous driving. It's just an argument for 2025 being a better year than 2009.
8 July 2025
From one piece What I learned watching 78 videos from Tesla's Austin robotaxis 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
These videos exceeded my expectations. Tesla’s robotaxi rollout wasn’t perfect, but it went as well as anyone could have expected.
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korrents.com
A good robotaxi demonstration in one city does not mean the company is ready to scale the service.Their words
But I don’t think Tesla’s accomplishments over the last two weeks—impressive as they are—mean that Tesla is ready to quickly scale up its service.
16 June 2025
22 April 2025
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Their words
That's much better than current FSD, but much worse than humans or Waymo.
26 March 2025
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Their words
Even if we assume all three of these crashes were Waymo’s fault, that would still mean that a large majority of the 38 serious crashes were not Waymo’s fault.
7 January 2025
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Their words
Personally, I would trust a self-driving car more than the average stranger to give me a lift.
1 January 2025
From one piece Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Waymo now has a service that looks and feels like this in San Francisco, 8 years earlier than I predicted. But it is not what every one was expecting. There are humans in the loop.
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korrents.com
Actual self-driving turned out to be far harder than almost everyone believed it would be.Their words
Actual self-driving is now generally accepted to be much harder than every one believed.
31 December 2024
9 September 2024
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korrents.com
Riding in a Waymo robotaxi is a better overall experience than being driven by a human driver.Their words
I found it to be a superior experience to a human driver, for a few key reasons.
Inflecting and Overtaking, SunPower, Waymonathanielbullard.com
19 June 2024
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Their words
I think the thing that most people get wrong after they’ve decided to start a company is work on things they think the market wants. Not being passionate about any idea but thinking, okay, look, this is what will get me venture funding. This is what will get me revenue or customers. That’s what will get me venture funding. If you work from that perspective, I think you’ll give up beyond the point because it’s very hard to work towards something that was not truly important to you.
17 June 2024
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Their words
At current deployment rates it will take Waymo about 20 years with ZERO fatalities to show they are net as safe as average human driver fatality rates (including the old cars, impaired drivers, etc. in that comparison baseline).
Perspective on Waymo's Safety Progresssafeautonomy.blogspot.com
16 June 2024
15 June 2024
4 June 2024
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Their words
But their latest study is for only 7.1 million miles. They need something like 40 times more data prove they are actually saving lives with statistical confidence (likely even more).
Waymo's Misleading Claim of Saving Livessafeautonomy.blogspot.com
3 June 2024
21 May 2024
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Their words
If Waymo vehicles were constantly asking for remote guidance, Waymo might need to hire so many remote operators that it negates the cost savings that come from not needing a driver.
29 December 2023
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Their words
At a higher level, the real event was a catastrophic failure of the industry's strategy of relentlessly shouting as loud as they can "Hey, get off our case, we're busy saving lives here!"
My Automated Vehicle Safety Prediction for 2024safeautonomy.blogspot.com
16 July 2023
From one piece AV Safety and the False Dilemma Fallacy 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
They frame the situation as a choice between continued human drivers killing people (without statistical context) vs. immature robotaxis who don't drink and drive (but make other mistakes).
AV Safety and the False Dilemma Fallacysafeautonomy.blogspot.com
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korrents.com
It is too early to know whether robotaxis are safer than human drivers where it counts, in fatal crashes.Their words
It is too early to know whether current robotaxi technology is safer than human drivers for fatalities.
AV Safety and the False Dilemma Fallacysafeautonomy.blogspot.com
28 August 2022
1 June 2020
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Welch LabsTheir words
this channel is full of high production quality and well-written videos. There are also several series on machine learning, the topics underlying self-driving cars, so this is certainly one of the more applied math channels out there.
23 April 2017
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