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Ray Dalio Newsletter
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19 September
18 September
16 September
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Their words
If the useful life of an NVIDIA H100-vintage cluster turns out to really be three years rather than six, the capex cycle's economics invert, and the leverage that looked prudent looks reckless.
15 September
14 September
6 September
3 September
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Their words
We are going to keep doing this ‘omg the new Chinese model is so good, America is cooked’ cycle for a while. Best get used to it.
30 August
25 August
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korrents.com
A portfolio you cannot hold through an ordinary market cycle is not a portfolio but a bet.Their words
Because if you can’t handle standard market cycles, then you don’t have a portfolio, you have a bet.
Why I Was Wrong to Be Bearish on U.S. Stocksofdollarsanddata.com
21 August
From one piece How Countries Go Broke: The Dynamic Behind What is Happening Now 2 beliefs · raydalio.substack.com
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Their words
Early in the final stage of the Big Debt Cycle, the market action reflects this dynamic via interest rates rising led by long-term rates, the currency declining especially relative to gold, and the central government’s treasury department shortening the maturities of its debt offerings because of a shortage of the demand for long-term debt.
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Their words
Because one can measure these things, one can monitor this debt dynamic happening, so it’s easy to see problems approaching. I’ve used this diagnostic process in my investing and I’ve kept it to myself, but I’m now explaining it in detail in How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle because it is too important to keep to myself.
7 August
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Their words
This is a little bit different than actually literally I vector centrality but it's very similar and so we call this technique IGEN reviews and I've become convinced that this is more or less the right way to do performance reviews.
3 August
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Their words
And that's why every hype cycle produces a wave of absolutely spectacular demos and very few real products. And the recurring mistake of every cycle is spending on the demo when you should be saving for the nines.
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Their words
Looking at the results and capabilities from the various labs over the past few weeks I would say we are firmly in this loop now.
28 July
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Their words
I think startups tend to win when um the sort of like technology landscape is moving very quickly. uh when costs are coming down when cycle times are short and all of those things are happening right now.
12 July
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Their words
new laws are like code that is pushed live to production without even being read (let alone tested), often in the face of tremendous opposition, affecting millions of citizens, with minimal monitoring to ensure they’re producing the desired results, an extremely slow customer feedback cycle, and few ways to truly opt out.
7 July
26 June
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korrents.com
Evaluating a model properly would mean delaying its release, and competitive pressure means no lab will.Their words
It's actually very difficult because, yeah, you would have to the only way to to really do the evaluations is then delay the model release cycle. Um and you know there's a lot of competitive pressure right now to not do that.
9 June
8 June
25 May
13 May
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Their words
That was always the idea, and that that goes back even to the predecessor of Turbo Pascal, this idea that it's not just a compiler. It's an experience, right? I mean, you don't just compile your programs. You also edit them. You also run them. You also debug them. You also have a runtime library. It all has to like fit together.
7 April
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Recommendstheir ownrcmnd.app
Principles for Dealing with the Changing World OrderTheir words
Many of the indicators I use to track unfolding events are explained in Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. I especially recommend Chapter 6, “The Big Cycle of External Order and Disorder,” and, if you are interested in the unimaginable-in-peacetime investment-related developments that typically happen during wars, I recommend Chapter 7, “Investing in Light of the Big Cycle.”
23 March
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Their words
And so this loop, this cycle, is gonna go on and on and on. It kinda comes down to basically intelligence is gonna scale by one thing, and that's compute.
4 March
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Their words
As more people build software and cycle time compresses, they'll start to absorb lessons that it took their colleagues decades to learn.
24 February
30 September 2025
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korrents.com
Action comes before motivation: you do first and feel afterwards, not the other way round.Their words
If you’re stuck in a depressive cycle, even when you really, really, really, really don’t want to do anything, to do something. Try to make progress because the good feeling comes on the end of that. The whole point is to do first and then feel, not feel and then do.
15 September 2025
4 September 2025
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Their words, before
There are obvious pricing problems in this scenario. With a new fab, a company can’t turn a profit selling a lagging-edge chip at the price that was previously dictated by a fully depreciated fab. Prices have to go up.
Their words now
The COVID super-cycle, plus a new China supply line that does not care about capacity economics, points to a forever glut.
16 July 2025
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korrents.com
In financial services it is very often the new products that blow up, because they have not yet been through a cycle.Their words
So, if you look at the financial services, very often it's the new products that blow up. It takes a while. They haven't been through a cycle.
30 April 2025
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Their words
We'd constantly be improving the tools and just the iterative process and the speed at which that improves products is the critical element to success in games. The slower the iteration cycle, if you make a build every week and you prove, you go through one iteration every week, you're going to be way way way worse by the end of your project than a game company that makes new stuff every day.
5 December 2024
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Their words
A number of studies, conducting full life-cycle analyses, have found that vertical farms currently have a higher carbon footprint than conventional outdoor farming.
30 September 2024
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Their words
I mean, if that’s right, that means the Maya and the people of Mesoamerica will all share it together, when they thought about, “We need a count of time for us,” they didn’t look up into the heavens, they looked into their bodies. “What’s the first cycle that we actually go through as humans?” and they picked this nine-month thing. It really is our cycle, and no other culture on the planet looked inside themselves to create their calendar like that.
18 February 2024
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Their words
The more addicts rely on these stimuli, the less pleasure they receive. At a certain point, this cycle creates anhedonia—the complete absence of enjoyment in an experience supposedly pursued for pleasure.
21 January 2023
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Their words
Here is how platforms die: first, they are good to their users; then they abuse their users to make things better for their business customers; finally, they abuse those business customers to claw back all the value for themselves.
24 October 2022
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