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Michael Grunwald Newsletter
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20 September
19 September
18 September
17 September
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Their words
Any piece of software that depends on open source (which is almost every piece of software) has a network of human beings who are potential attack vectors - everyone with publishing rights to any of the packages in the dependency network for that software.
16 September
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Their words
This is why they will fail. They are not nation-builders; they will always splinter, divide, and find new internal enemies to attack.
15 September
14 September
12 September
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Their words
If that’s true there are two options: After the Hugging Face and Wiki attacks OpenAI were still unable to review their previous logs and determine that they had previously attacked RubyGems. They knew about the attack on RubyGems and made the decision not to reach out to the RubyGems team about it. Both of these are bad!
OpenAI agents attacked RubyGems back in Maysimonwillison.net
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Their words
Our adversaries have the training techniques, the data, and the will to attack. And they won’t be slowed down with “embedded evaluators.” They’ll likely have embedded accelerators!
10 September
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korrents.com
Publicly expressing fear of AI can function as virtue signaling rather than genuine concern.Their words
Expressing fear of AI can become a form of virtue signaling.
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Their words
Many model it as game theory, but the interesting thing about Jane Austen is that she understands that marrying well is also about virtue ethics.
9 September
8 September
7 September
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Their words
People who act and speak in public as right-wing extremists and are labeled as such, establish a claim to authenticity.
5 September
4 September
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Their words
This kind of thing will be exploited. Think Solar Winds–style supply chain attacks.
1 September
From one piece Ajeya Cotra – "This might be the clearest warning shot we ever get" 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
however at any given point in time I think the systems we need to worry most about by far are the frontier systems. By the time open source systems can do something like the hugging face attack, frontier systems are going to be on a whole another level doing something even crazier than that.
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Their words
But actually, this is a tremendously useful scientific artifact for understanding misalignment. And it's tremendously important for researchers at OpenAI and ideally also at third parties to be able to run counterfactual tests on this model.
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Their words
But keep those methods you use to investigate things and monitor things very separate from the methods you use to generate reward which is something that AI companies including open AAI have held up as a principle especially in the case of avoiding putting training pressure on the chain of thought. So you might have monitors that read the agents chain of thought in order to alert you if something is going wrong somewhere but you don't train the agents with the outputs of that monitor.
31 August
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Their words
A less bad version of it is known to have happened, and from the outside it seems likely that worse things have happened internally that we never heard about.
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The Coming Storm: Power, Conflict, and Warnings from HistoryTheir words
It is a quick read, an excellent book whose main virtue is not, in my opinion, direct analogy with the World War I, but a treatment of how in a multipolar world relatively small international events, misunderstandings, idiosyncratic fits of leaders, “hubris and fear” (as Westad often writes), resentment of the elite and of the public prodded by the media, can produce colossal miscalculations which then produce even more colossal wars and, in the era of the weapons of mass destruction, may end the civilization.
30 August
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Their words
Overall, I’m very surprised at how little media coverage there’s been around the OpenAI / Hugging Face attack. It’s clearly one of the most important things to happen this year.
29 August
25 August
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korrents.com
The S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio no longer signals what it once did, because today’s companies earn higher margins.Their words
Therefore, the only correct interpretation of the P/S ratio over the last decade is that it doesn’t signal what it used to.
Why I Was Wrong to Be Bearish on U.S. Stocksofdollarsanddata.com
24 August
20 August
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Their words
That world is is generated by the brain. And so, if you can get visuals the visual signal, auditory signal, balance, motor, like somatic sensory motor in and out of the brain, that is that is an end in itself. That is the central object.
17 August
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Their words
And once you look at the brain systems, they're distinct brain systems in this instance for fear to something out there in the world versus panic of something happening inside you like having a heart attack or not getting enough air.
3 August
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Their words
it helps sending a signal and a reminder that Open Source is to a large extent done voluntarily and even maintainers need a break at times.
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korrents.com
The post-1970s global increase in heatwave frequency is caused by greenhouse gas emissions from human activity.Their words
This differs from the Dust Bowl because it is a global signal, occurring essentially everywhere. This is almost certainly due to greenhouse gas emissions from human activities.
30 July
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The Signal and the NoiseTheir words
And, in addition, Nate Silver’s earlier book The Signal and the Noise was, I thought, brilliant. I am forever deeply in his debt for his making me better-informed and wiser across a whole bunch of different dimensions.
28 July
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korrents.com
Anyone who does something that matters will be called an idiot, and the attacks scale with how well the thing works.Their words
I mean, if you do anything that matters in the world, uh you will have a lot of people call you an idiot or just dismiss you. The more you do, the more the better you do, the more they'll attack you.
27 July
From one piece Boris Cherny: We Cut 80% of Claude Code's Prompt 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
the model does not seem to be prompt injectable anymore.
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Their words
it's it's literally we're looking at neurons in the model's brain that light up when prompt injection happens. So the model won't even tell you but we can actually see those neurons and we can figure out and diagnose that it's happening. And then you combine that with the auto mode classifier and with these three layers we just cannot demonstrate prompt injection anymore.
24 July
23 July
22 July
10 July
9 July
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Their words
But they just by virtue of having less people to coordinate they can often move faster and make um better decisions a little bit less design by committee.
30 June
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Their words
To real estate professionals, slowing growth or declines in rent are often signals to stop building new housing.
Some Things YIMBYs Tend To Get Wrong (and Right)strongtowns.org
27 June
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Their words
These failures are a strong signal that HDL-C is not the variable we should be trying to manipulate.
24 June
14 June
From one piece The hidden pattern behind successful products | Mark Pincus (FarmVille, Words with Friends, & more) 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
AI should be used as a failure machine that tests many ideas cheaply, not as a way to build one idea faster.Their words
the way we should be using AI is as a testing machine, a failure machine, and a way to vibe code, cloud code, but but build build the, you know, the the lowest possible cycled version of your product that you can get signal back on.
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korrents.com
If you are asking whether your product is an A, it is not an A — real signal never leaves you asking.Their words
If you're asking whether or not your product is an A, it's not an A. And you're you're full of hope.
13 June
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korrents.com
Polished UI is a reasonable signal that a team invested comparable effort in the underlying code quality.Their words
Users can't see the code, so UI is the only way for them to judge the quality of the app. If UI looks good, that means developers had time to polish it, which means that they probably spent a comparable amount of time to iron out the code.
4 June
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Their words
They just recently released a report, and I think like you really have to squint to see anything happening. Like basically, if you want to take kind of like uh an an approach across the entire economy and looking at even looking at like software engineering, like the most exposed sort of sectors, there's just like not really anything going on. There might be a little bit of a signal about like junior developers getting jobs less than before, and that but that's like a less than before rather than a level shift.
3 June
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korrents.com
Having worked at a highly selective, demanding employer signals conscientiousness and reliability.Their words
Having worked there is a signal that you work hard, you complete your assignments, you adapt well to new tasks and requirements, and you're ready to take on new challenges.
2 June
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Their words
To change course in democratic nations will require a major change in public opinion as a signal to political leaders that the current course is not acceptable.
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korrents.com
A user's own behavior over time is a more reliable signal of what they want to see than who they explicitly follow.Their words
A user's behavior, especially as it changes over time, is a better signal for what the user wants to see.
29 May
28 May
21 May
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Their words
Money might still matter for AI agents because it compresses many messy negotiations into one shared signal.
13 May
8 May
From one piece David Reich – Bronze Age shock, the Neanderthal puzzle, & the sudden spread of farming 4 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Our interpretation of this result is that once you slide the statistic above five, essentially all the signals of natural selection are real.
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Their words
So we just could not see a way this could happen by chance and once we saw that we really felt quite convinced that this was a real signal and that really somehow there has been natural selection to increase the genetic changes that today manifest themselves as more years of school at predicting more years of schooling.
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Their words
It may still be the case, and I guess it is, that immune traits are the most selected category, but is not at all the case, and in fact, we can prove it's not the case that behavioral traits are not selected.
+ 1 more
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Their words
And really from a statistical point of view, what happens at these times of migration is there's just huge fluctuations in frequencies, and these are extremely uninformative times for looking and detecting natural selection.
7 May
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Their words
the reviewer is the principal, the contributor is the agent, and code review only worked because the reviewer could cheaply infer effort from reading the code. Agents collapse that signal.
2 May
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Their words
you become aware that others are engaging in a similar sorting process, such that the total human network does reward virtue.
2 April
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Usesrcmnd.app
SearXNGTheir words
I gave pi a skill for using the search engine SearXNG (which aggregates many search engines together at the same time), and one for calling into a daemon that I wrote that gives it access to read my email and Signal messages, and send-to-self, and send to others only with human confirmation.
31 March
24 March
20 March
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Their words
um you know, these tools they either succeed or they fail um and they they've been really bad at creating sort of partial progress or identifying intermediate um um stages that you should you should focus on first.
19 March
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Their words
I call it the lethal trifecta because the only guaranteed solution is to cut off one of the legs.
8 March
26 January
9 December 2025
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Their words
it doesn't matter how good the drink is if people think you've bought it for $8.95 it's not doing the job it's supposed to do which is to signal generosity to signal hospitality or to mark a special occasion
15 October 2025
5 October 2025
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Their words
And if I'm starting to see like more and more experiments that are not statistically significant, that may be a signal to me to say, okay, we might have kind of tried to exploit a little bit too far. Like there might not be as much juice to squeeze.
30 September 2025
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Their words
No, I'm not saying that you should never take pills. There are obviously some diseases that you can only fight with antibiotics, for example. So, I'm not suggesting we go back to the Middle Ages, but what I'm saying is we overuse pills.
19 September 2025
From one piece Norman Ohler: Hitler, Nazis, Drugs, WW2, Blitzkrieg, LSD, MKUltra & CIA | Lex Fridman Podcast #481 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
That was the victorious idea. So it's not the drugs. Actually, that idea to go through the Ardennes Mountains, if you think monocausal, you would say that's the reason. That idea was genius, and Hitler immediately understood it, because before, the plan was to attack in the north of Belgium, which is the same as World War I.
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Their words
His officers didn't think so. High command said, “No, we're not going to attack the West; we're going to lose.” And Hitler was fanatic about it, he really wanted to attack it. They were planning a coup against him in November 1939 just to prevent him ordering the attack on the West, because it would have been a catastrophe for Germany.
17 September 2025
12 September 2025
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Their words
Like now, like basically learning is not for these systems is not just learning from raw actions. It's also learning from words eventually be learning from observing what people do from the kind of natural feedback that you receive when you're doing a job together with somebody else.
8 September 2025
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Their words
We live in a culture that preaches self‑esteem more than self‑knowledge. That leaves people morally flabby-performing virtue while outsourcing the actual discipline that keeps ordinary humans from doing monstrous things.
2 September 2025
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Their words
But once you actually have a sophisticated industrial economy, central planning can't handle the complexity. And so you try and create incentives and structures around that while not having pricing and that just doesn't work.
18 August 2025
10 April 2025
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korrents.com
Loneliness is an evolved biological signal that triggers a threat response rather than just an emotional state.Their words
Loneliness is an inherited biological adaptation signal that puts us into a state of threat.
1 April 2025
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Their words
The stereotype is that new managers often micromanage, but at Wave, I've noticed that new managers often err on the side of undermanaging, or being too hands-off, perhaps out of a desire to signal that they trust their reports.
22 March 2025
From one piece ThePrimeagen: Programming, AI, ADHD, Productivity, Addiction, and God | Lex Fridman Podcast #461 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I think there's this whole idea, I call it a denial of attention. I think there's an entire attack vector that's going to be happening. We're using LLMs to generate fake bug reports, fake all these things to just actually effectively to demotivate and hurt open source maintainers.
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korrents.com
Prompt injection is an extremely hard attack to defend against, and hardly anyone integrating AI is talking about it.Their words
One thing that I don't think a lot of people are talking about as we integrate more and more AI is that prompt injection is an extremely hard thing to defend against because it's not really clear how you defend against it.
17 March 2025
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
SignalTheir words
I recommend Signal instead of text messages because it end-to-end encrypts all your communications.
13 January 2025
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Their words
A glut follows every semiconductor shortage.
26 August 2024
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Their words
Without the details, though, it’s really difficult to know if this is an attack on free speech, or legitimate charges over actual criminal behavior.
19 June 2024
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Their words
What is the weakness of Google is that any ad unit that’s less profitable than a link, or any ad unit that kind of disincentivizes the link click is not in their interest to go aggressive on, because it takes money away from something that’s higher margins.
19 May 2024
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korrents.com
Private group chats have become the primary venue for the most interesting conversations in tech.Their words
Most of the interesting conversations in tech now happen in private group chats: Whatsapp, Telegram, Signal, small invite-only Discord groups.
22 April 2024
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Their words
This is the 2001 monolith hypothesis. I would be less surprised to find a quiescent alien artifact in our solar system than I would to catch a radio signal from an intelligent civilization.
2 April 2024
25 March 2024
From one piece Preventing a “Space Pearl Harbor”: Rep. Turner leads the charge 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Satellites need self-defence zones: a keep-out rule around them is the only workable arms control in orbit.Their words
We accordingly proposed a framework of self-defense zones to “facilitate unilateral defense against a surprise attack on satellites.”
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korrents.com
Dual-use robotic servicing spacecraft, not missiles or lasers, will be the anti-satellite weapon of choice.Their words
Dual-use robotic spacecraft will soon become the anti-satellite weapon of choice for mounting this attack.
22 March 2024
From one piece Annie Jacobsen: Nuclear War, CIA, KGB, Aliens, Area 51, Roswell & Secrecy | Lex Fridman Podcast #420 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
But that was their official position, and that changed just two years ago when Putin gave a speech and he said that their position had changed, that they will no longer wait to absorb an attack.
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Their words
Because we have that policy, Launch on Warning, which is exactly like it says. It means the United States will not wait to absorb a nuclear attack. It will launch nuclear weapons in response before the bomb actually hits.
25 February 2024
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korrents.com
Repeated vague platitudes without follow-up specifics signal weak first-principles thinking.Their words
If they don't follow this up with a more specific, precise or nuanced claim, they may not be a strong first-principles thinker.
12 January 2024
Nothing matches.
What is a korrent?
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