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Dave Rupert Mastodon
I think what gets me the most about this whole "AI is going to destroy humanity" narrative is that the entire scenario was already meta-gamed by science fiction authors on typewriters in the 1930s and 40s before what we know as a computer even existed.
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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17 September
15 September
14 September
13 September
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Their words
It's hard to escape that economic engine, and easy to mistake its machinations for reality-a supply rising to meet demand, say, rather than a warped supply that whips up demand.
11 September
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korrents.com
A product can be technically impressive yet fail because it launched before a real market for it existed.Their words
It's certainly an impressive piece of technology, but it was clearly launched far too early, with no large market to find.
10 September
8 September
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korrents.com
Neural networks do not have a one-to-one mapping between individual neurons and concepts.Their words
researchers started by seeking a 1:1 mapping between neurons and concepts, like a neuron that always fired when the AI was thinking about cats, but quickly learned that nothing like that existed.
4 September
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Their words
In fact, conventional risk management tells us that, when consequences are severe, low-probability extreme outcomes can determine the response.
2 September
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Their words
Its worse than ever with AI, but these people existed before.
31 August
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korrents.com
Interacting AI agents or algorithms risk pushing each other into a Black-Monday-style cascading failure.Their words
I have said for many years now that the thing I'm worried about with the models is a Black Monday type scenario, where many algorithms work with each other and get us into weird basins of actions.
25 August
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Their words
As recently as a hundred years ago, leisure time existed in a media-free zone. Nobody expected you to make money for wealthy elites on your day off.
18 August
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have to abide by this rule that was written before LLMs were even a thing. And that shows how challenging sort of the the the situation is if you try to set the line too firm to begin with.
12 August
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Their words
Um, and while this generally improves the reliability of the model, uh, people eventually get tired and it's hard to get really, really high reliability with a person that's manually tuning this. And so what would be even better is if the AI system itself can iterate on the scenario in which you want it to have higher reliability where it on its own automatically seeks out places where it needs more data, where it needs more supervision.
11 August
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Lovedrcmnd.app
Structure and Interpretation of Computer ProgramsTheir words
Structure and Interpretation of Computer Programs (SICP) by Gerald Jay Sussman and Hal Abelson. SICP is my all-time favourite programming book. It's also where I learned about the power of wishful thinking when coding. SICP uses wishful thinking as a design tool: write code as if the abstraction already existed. Pretend. Then, once the ideal abstraction has taken shape, you go ahead and implement those functions. This meta-level is what made SICP so valuable. Ultimately, it's a book that teaches how to think about code and problem solving. I'm tempted to even say that SICP is more a work of art than a pure coding book, but I won't go there. A beautiful book.
10 August
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Their words
The next frontier of AI as I have been saying is beyond language because again humans develop first preverbally. evolution took, you know, 500 million years without verbal communication
3 August
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korrents.com
The 1930s U.S. Dust Bowl heat wave was caused by destructive farming practices rather than fossil-fuel emissions.Their words
The relevant human activity was not fossil-fuel combustion but bad farming practices that contributed to the Dust Bowl.
29 July
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Their words
frontier AI work is research. Like we are it is scientific work. We're exploring what can you do with these models? How can you push these models? What is the what are the reaches of what can be accomplished with these models which requires a totally different mindset and operating model than you know, existed for internet companies or internet products and what not.
27 July
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Their words
the heat of the 1930s was a regional event, due to a combination of unforced variability and human activities (poor agricultural land management).
22 July
1 July
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Their words
So, we're going to see people get into those where they're like, "Well, I vibe code the tip of the iceberg. I throw away the rest of the iceberg and now I'm in trouble because now I don't know what to do. Now I get to these downstream problems that I didn't even know existed." So, we're going to see on the on the side of the the the vibe coding replacers, we're going to see that kind of a naivity play out.
25 June
4 June
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Their words
I think in some ways like one of the worst scenarios is a drip scenario because of the political economy piece. Right? Because like you know, people essentially what you what you might see is like people not really being unemployed in mass, but kind of like moving into sectors that pay them less money, kind of basically getting uh what happened with phone operators in in in the mid-century of the of the between 1920 and 1940, phone operators were completely automated, right? But it took 20 years even though the technology existed.
27 May
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Their words
If you get your positioning right, the world just keeps handing you wins that you didn't even expect. So like we never predicted this exact scenario but like our fundamental understanding of the position was right. like if if there is a neutral party, all these companies with billions of dollars will kind of use a neutral party to advance their own like company's interests.
20 May
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Their words
And what this is is that in the guide level explanation, you explain your feature as if you were writing a guide as if the feature already existed. And in the reference level explanation, you explain your feature again as if it already existed, but as if it would be in the language reference instead of a tutorial.
10 May
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Their words
this idea is old enough that we now have a generation of people who have been raised as if this was a natural law. This is how capitalism has always been. But that's wrong. For the vast majority of the time, for hundreds of years, we have had joint stock corporations. Only the last 40 have we had this idea.
3 May
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Lovedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Victorinox CompactTheir words
There is no perfect SAK, but the Compact is the best SAK. And this is not a "smartest Kardashian" scenario. Over the years I have genuinely loved carrying the Compact. Adding the pocket clip and the excellent PDW scales has made it one of my most frequently carried items.
30 April
7 April
From one piece Michael Nielsen – Why aliens will have a different tech stack than us 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Ideas like public key cryptography are I mean, they're just incredibly deep um very non-obvious ideas uh which in some sense lay hidden uh already sort of in in the 1930s.
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Their words
People will sometimes talk about um you know, a theory of everything as a potential goal for for physics. And and then there's this presumption somehow that physics is done once you get there. And of course, this is this is not true at all if you think about computer science.
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korrents.com
Ultra-processed foods have epidemiological evidence of harm comparable to what existed for smoking.Their words
There's strong epidemiological evidence associating ultra-processed foods with a range of negative health outcomes, at least on par with the evidence we had for smoking.
0058: borrow-checking surprises, books, linksscattered-thoughts.net
22 March
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Burn Bright, Not OutTheir words
His book Burn Bright, Not Out - co-authored with Django De Gree - is what I wish had existed a long time ago.
12 March
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korrents.com
The golden age of American schooling that reformers want to return to never existed anywhere.Their words
But please, stop saying things like “I just want us to get back to a world where kids were graduating high school with basic skills!” Because the world you’re referring to never existed.
4 March
9 January
28 November 2025
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korrents.com
Dripper diameter, with other brew variables held fixed, does not change extraction or taste — only batch size.Their words
changing the dripper diameter, keeping all other important variables fixed, has no impact on the brew mechanics and the resulting cup, in an "idealized" scenario
31 October 2025
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Their words
You know, you were in, you were in these worlds, and you went there as a visitor, and they existed almost independent of you. It felt like when you turned up, the world was running. It didn’t feel like you’d started it.
17 October 2025
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Their words
and we'll gradually layer all this stuff everywhere and there will be fewer and fewer people who understand it and that there will be a sort of this like scenario of a gradual loss of control and understanding of what's happening that to me seems most likely outcome of how all this stuff will go down.
9 September 2025
4 September 2025
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Their words, before
There are obvious pricing problems in this scenario. With a new fab, a company can’t turn a profit selling a lagging-edge chip at the price that was previously dictated by a fully depreciated fab. Prices have to go up.
Their words now
The COVID super-cycle, plus a new China supply line that does not care about capacity economics, points to a forever glut.
1 September 2025
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korrents.com
Shipping a half-baked product permanently damages customer trust, even after it is later fixed.Their words
When AWS ships a service which is half-baked, it diminishes customer trust in AWS as a whole; even if the problems in that service ultimately get corrected (either by fixing them or in some cases by simply getting rid of a service which should never have existed in the first place) the memory of a failed launch will live on in customers' minds for years to come.
23 July 2025
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Their words
I mean potentially that's possible. I would say I'm not sure it's even desirable because that's a kind of hard takeoff scenario.
5 June 2025
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korrents.com
AI video will enable more filmmakers than have ever existed; the expansionary side of it is underestimated.Their words
There is no doubt in me that we will enable more filmmakers than have ever been. You're going to empower a lot more people. So I think there is an expansionary aspect of this, which is underestimated, I think.
24 May 2025
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Their words
And so, one of the reasons why you have this narrative that Britain was a bit rubbish and hanging on the shirttails of the Americans and all the blood was spilt in eastern front and Germany had the best army in the world and was only defeated because Hitler was mad and blah, blah, blah, that kind of traditional narrative, that narrative emerges through the prism of what was going on in the 1970s and what was going on in the 1980s and the changing world, rather than looking at it through the prism of the late 1930s or early 1940s.
12 March 2025
7 March 2025
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Their words
Essentially, vibe coding makes it trivial to create front-end code, so designers can skip static mockups and go straight to building a UI that works.
28 February 2025
16 October 2024
From one piece Graham Hancock: Lost Civilization of the Ice Age & Ancient Human History | Lex Fridman Podcast #449 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
It’s often said that I’m claiming to have proved that there was an advanced lost civilization in the Ice Age. And I am not claiming to have proved that. That is a hypothesis that I’m putting forward to answer some of the questions that I have about prehistory.
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Their words
The places to look are places that were hospitable and welcoming to human beings during the ice age. That, of course, includes the coastlines that are now underwater. Of course, it includes the Sahara Desert. Of course, it includes the Amazon rainforest as well.
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Their words
But what I do suggest is that there were very low platforms on the Giza Plateau that are much older and that when we look at the three Great Pyramids, we are looking at a renovation and a restoration and a enhancement of much older structures that had existed on the Giza Plateau for a much longer period before that.
30 September 2024
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korrents.com
Atlantis never existed; it was one of Plato's teaching parables, and Akrotiri is the nearest real thing to it.Their words
I don’t think that Atlantis existed. I do think it was one of Plato’s many parables talking about putting it in an interesting story as a teaching device in his school.
19 September 2024
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korrents.com
Biology keeps turning up whole classes of things nobody knew existed, and that is what defeats attempts to model it.Their words
The "unknown unknown" problem makes hash (in retrospect) of many attempts at biological theorizing and modeling, and I think that this problem will still accrue to ML models until we know an awful lot more.
22 April 2024
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Their words
I think that that story about the latter part is completely wrong, almost 180 degrees wrong. I think that Einstein understood quantum mechanics as well as anyone, at least up through the 1930s. I think that his philosophical objections to it are correct. He should actually have been taken much more seriously about that.
18 April 2024
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Their words
The optimal scenario is typically when the generators supply 1% of yearly electricity (shown below).
How to Make Off Grid Data Centers Affordableaustinvernon.site
17 November 2023
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Their words
And I believe that there is a good chance you would've had World War II in the absence of Hitler. I believe that Germany was very powerful, it was deeply worried about the balance of power in Europe, and it had strong incentives to behave aggressively in the late 1930s, early 1940s.
9 November 2023
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Their words
Because you think of how many electric motors are made in the world. There’s like tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of electric motor designs. None of them were suitable for a humanoid robot, literally none.
3 October 2023
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Their words
the most likely identifiable scenario by which fertility will rise again is via the growth of currently-small insular high-fertility subgroups like the Amish and Orthodox Jews
18 November 2017
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Their words
The world would have to move from an inequality level that is higher than that of South Africa to complete equality that has never existed in any recorded society.
12 November 2016
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