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20 September
Working on @ampcode. Writing registerspill.thorstenball.com. Once authored interpreterbook.com and compilerbook.com.
This blew up beyond anything I expected. The responses are surprising too: 40% says that, duh, this is already the reality at my job. Yes, at mine too. Another 40% agrees with some adjustments and different timelines. Then 20% disagree. Of those that disagree, some, of course, call me an idiot and that I only build CRUD apps and so on. Not surprising, it's the Internet after all. But there are two other categories of criticism that I find fascinating. One is that people say I work on AI and that is why I would predict AI to take over. The shovel seller says you should dig, is the criticism. I… Quoting @thorstenball Most predictions I see are still way too conservative. Here's mine Related
18 September
Mac and iOS developer at the Iconfactory, where he has worked on apps including Twitterrific and Tot. He writes about development at furbo.org.
Pulling up a keyboard on a closed Duo is likely to be a surprise: don’t forget to check it. Related
Distributed-systems safety researcher; runs the Jepsen consistency-testing project and wrote the Riemann monitoring system.
A boy at camp introduced me to 3M Microfoam tape gags and oh wow, it's all the fun of duct tape but very little of the hair-pulling pain after. Related
Web designer and writer; founded A List Apart and Happy Cog, co-founded the An Event Apart conference, and wrote Designing With Web Standards.
Mastodon “Let me make it clear: without people at the top of their game sharing their experience and knowledge—regardless of whatever ‘game changing’ technology is in place—we are pulling up the ladders and committing our industry to stagnation and death.” bell.bz
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Bluesky “Let me make it clear: without people at the top of their game sharing their experience and knowledge—regardless of whatever ‘game changing’ technology is in place—we are pulling up the ladders and committing our industry to stagnation and death.” bell.bz
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17 September
Former options market maker who writes Moontower, a newsletter on trading, volatility, decision-making and how to think about risk outside markets too.
Smart followers. Would love to see the same poll run on some other timelines. Quoting @KrisAbdelmessih Interest rates are 0, no dividends, stock is at $100. Assume 1 year to expiration. What is the maximum fair-value of the $100-strike straddle? If the straddle trades at its max value, what is the straddle’s delta? Related
16 September
Economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury. Author of Slouching Towards Utopia and writer of the Grasping Reality newsletter.
15 September
Writes The Diff, a newsletter on inflections in finance and tech read by hedge fund managers, founders and VCs. Previously worked in finance at SAC Capital/Point72.
11 September
Writes The Diff, a newsletter on inflections in finance and tech read by hedge fund managers, founders and VCs. Previously worked in finance at SAC Capital/Point72.
9 September
Technology writer of Spyglass, a newsletter about technology and media. Previously a reporter at TechCrunch and an investor at GV.
"One more thing." Ternus, pulling out all the hits and stops. #AppleEvent Related
Writes Don't Worry About the Vase, a near-daily account of what is happening in AI and what they think it means. Former Magic: the Gathering pro and trader; unusually willing to put a number on a belief and to grade their own past calls.
Their words
We could not possibly know that such a model is aligned. If that is all it takes to get a generation ahead of Astra, and we are willing to move this fast, these pauses in training are not going to end up meaning very much, time is even shorter than we knew
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thezvi.substack.com
4 September
Writes Where's Your Ed At and hosts Better Offline; runs a tech PR firm, and argues at length that the AI business does not add up.
Security technologist and author of books including Applied Cryptography and Data and Goliath; writes the Schneier on Security blog and the monthly Crypto-Gram newsletter.
3 September
Investor and writer. Previously a partner at Andreessen Horowitz and a product leader at Twitter, Facebook, Snap and Microsoft. Writes essays and memos at sriramk.com.
1 September
Co-founder of Sundial; former vice president of product design at Facebook; author of The Making of a Manager; writes The Looking Glass.
28 August
Writes Where's Your Ed At and hosts Better Offline; runs a tech PR firm, and argues at length that the AI business does not add up.
14 August
Ancient and military historian; writes A Collection of Unmitigated Pedantry, long series checking what history actually says against how popular culture tells it.
7 August
Usability pioneer; co-founder of Nielsen Norman Group and founder of UX Tigers; author of the ten usability heuristics and of Jakob's Law.
4 June
Economist at Oxford's Global Priorities Institute; works on what advanced AI would do to growth, saving and the long-run economy.
AGI
Their words
I would prioritize trying to index, but just given how fast AI could, you know, hit the world. But, um I definitely wouldn't just rely on that because like it could the the sort of um messy middle type cases or the just a long timelines cases on which like you we don't get it anything like AGI all that soon.
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youtube.com
2 June
Co-founder and CTO of Honeycomb; previously an infrastructure engineer at Parse, Facebook and Linden Lab, and co-author of Observability Engineering.
6 April
Cryptography engineer; maintains Go's cryptography libraries as a full-time open-source maintainer, funded directly by companies that use them.
25 March
American open-source program lead working on WordPress; a WordPress core contributor and release lead who writes at jeffpaul.com.
LEGO Minifigure – 1000 Piece Puzzle Another puzzle down, and this LEGO minifigure one kept pulling us back to the table. Tricky in places, fun in others, and somehow the perfect excuse for the kids to stall homework just a little longer. jeffpaul.com
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13 March
Founder and chief analyst of SemiAnalysis; reports on semiconductor supply chains, AI datacentre economics and what the chip export controls actually do.
AGI America
Their words
But I don't know like I don't know what fast timelines means, right? Like I I like don't think you have to believe in AGI to have the timelines where the US wins.
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youtube.com
28 February
Genomics researcher and writer on science, biotech and the culture of research.
Their words
Even if AI can help design more effective drugs, timelines will not compress until we solve the operational and regulatory bottlenecks of trials.
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writingruxandrabio.com
13 February
Co-founder and CEO of Anthropic; previously VP of research at OpenAI.
Their words
given the serious dangers that I lay out in adolescence of technology around things like the you know, kind of biological weapons and bioterrorism, autonomy risk and the timelines we've been talking about, like 10 years is an eternity. Like that's that's a that's a I I think that's a crazy thing to do.
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youtube.com
9 February
Data scientist at Our World in Data and author of Not the End of the World. Writes By the Numbers, working through energy and climate questions with the numbers in front of them, and revising in public when they say something unexpected.
10 January
Software engineer and a long-time technical lead of the Go programming language; author of plan9port and of the research.swtch.com essays.
27 November 2025
Environmental writer and campaigner; author of Six Degrees, The God Species, Seeds of Science and Our Final Warning.
Is nuclear power too expensive? Exhibit A is the UK's Hinkley C, over budget and overdue... will copy Sizewell C suffer the same problems? As some project a financing cost of £100bn for Sizewell, MD Julia Pyke tells me that it will actually save consumers £2bn/yr. weplanet.org
energy Related
21 November 2025
Author of The 4-Hour Workweek and Tools of Titans, and host of The Tim Ferriss Show podcast.
Their words
This is, bar none, the best sled I have ever used for pushing or pulling. It isn't cheap, but I use it infinitely more than the cheaper sleds I've bought in the past.
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tim.blog
12 September 2025
Professor at Berkeley working on robot learning; co-founded Physical Intelligence, and argues that robots will learn from data rather than be programmed.
Their words
So to me like what what I tend to think about a lot in terms of timelines is not the date when it will be done but the date when it will when like the flywheel starts basically.
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youtube.com
25 June 2025
Co-founder of Microsoft and of the Gates Foundation. Writes Gates Notes on global health, energy and climate, and on whatever they have been reading.
In the last 25 years, @gavi has helped over a billion kids live better, healthier lives. Pulling the organization’s funding would have devastating consequences: more sick kids who fall behind in school, more overcrowded hospital wards, and eventually more grieving parents. I’m urging Congress to rethink this decision, fund Gavi, and help save millions more lives. Quoting @MSuzman Today, world leaders reaffirmed their commitment to protecting children from vaccine-preventable diseases, raising $9 billion for @gavi. This reflects strong global confidence in vaccines as one of the most effective investments in global health. As a founding partner, the @gatesfoundation committe… Related
14 June 2025
Mathematician at UCLA, working mainly in harmonic analysis and partial differential equations. Writes What's new, a long-running blog on their research, open problems and expository notes.
Their words
Yeah, that was a leading candidate for many decades. I think it's slowly pulling out of fashion. It's not matching experiment.
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youtube.com
1 April 2025
Director of strategy at Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology; an OpenAI board member until November 2023, and writes Rising Tide.
21 January 2025
Development economist; writes Global Developments, on growth, history and the numbers behind them.
Europe
Their words
The relative absence of pre-colonial states meant that the newly independent African states were largely European inventions; modern Kenya, for instance, inherits the boundaries of British East Africa, which was created by pulling together the Kikuyu, Luo, Luhya, Kalenjin, and Kamba ethnic groups.
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global-developments.org
1 December 2024
Novelist and critic, author of The Body Scout and Metallic Realms; writes the newsletter Counter Craft on fiction craft and the publishing industry.
18 March 2024
Co-founder and CEO of OpenAI; previously president of Y Combinator.
AGI
Their words
And I’ve said for a long time that you think of a quadrant of slow timelines for the start of AGI, long timelines, and then a short takeoff or a fast takeoff. I think short timeline, slow takeoff is the safest quadrant and the one I’d most like us to be in. But I do want to make sure we get that slow takeoff.
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youtube.com
26 January 2024
Software engineer who writes the blog Made of Bugs about performance, debugging and understanding computer systems. Previously worked at Anthropic on interpretability, at Stripe on Sorbet, and at Ksplice.
I am slowly trying to figure out Nix/NixOS. I just realized something I'm very confused by: Is it really the case “pinning’ in NixOS prototypically means “pinning a single version of the entire package repository, and then pulling in whatever versions it contains”? I mean, "it's all just code" and it seems to be *possible* to mix and match via `fetchTarball`. But is pinning the universe as-a-unit really the normal pattern? Nix Related
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