-
Their words
I think there's a 25% chance of AGI by 2027, a 50% chance by 2034, and a 75% chance by 2045.
What public figures publish and believe, in their own words.
About this feed
Highlights: posts that did unusually well for the person who wrote them, everything they published at length, each release and new project, and every belief — at most two a day from anyone. Day by day, newest day first; within a day, the people with the most beliefs on this site come first. Nothing else orders it. Show everything instead.
The quoted blocks are what people actually said; a beneath one is the belief those words support, in korrents' wording. Nobody here wrote their own page.
Top people are the people in this feed with the most beliefs on this site, then the most here. Choose an area and the row leads with the people whose beliefs are about it; tap a face for their feed.
Top people in AGI
Showing Profile →
Hiding
Hiding
11 June
9 June
4 June
-
Their words
So, I think there is a world where it is concentrated, in which case it's going to be really hard to index AGI. There is another world where it is not It's electricity, then like basically every company has access to AGI. So, you just buy you use buy the index. So, like, you know, Nigeria just needs to buy the index.
-
Their words
I would prioritize trying to index, but just given how fast AI could, you know, hit the world. But, um I definitely wouldn't just rely on that because like it could the the sort of um messy middle type cases or the just a long timelines cases on which like you we don't get it anything like AGI all that soon.
13 April
-
Their words
Backlash is also the inevitable consequence of AGI-pilling the nation.
6 April
From one piece The term “AGI” is almost useless at this point 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
-
Their words
Today’s best AI systems are good enough that they’re now inside the fuzzy conceptual cloud of “AGI-ish”: that is, they’ve surpassed some people’s definitions of AGI, while falling well short of others’.
The term “AGI” is almost useless at this pointhelentoner.substack.com
-
Their words
This makes it likely that there could be big gaps between when different definitions of AGI are fulfilled.
The term “AGI” is almost useless at this pointhelentoner.substack.com
23 March
-
korrents.com
Asked when an AI could build a billion-dollar business on its own: AGI has already arrived.Their words
I think it's now. I think we've achieved AGI.
13 March
-
korrents.com
You do not have to believe in AGI to believe in the timelines on which the United States wins the semiconductor race.Their words
But I don't know like I don't know what fast timelines means, right? Like I I like don't think you have to believe in AGI to have the timelines where the US wins.
13 February
-
Their words
but it's not an infinitely compelling product, and I don't think even AGI or powerful AI or country of geniuses in a data center will be an infinitely compelling product. It will be a compelling product enough maybe to get three or five or 10x a year growth even when you're in the hundreds of billions of dollars, which is extremely hard to do and has never been done in history before, but not infinitely fast.
1 February
25 November 2025
From one piece Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
-
Their words
A human being, a human being lacks a huge amount of knowledge. Instead, we rely on continual learning. We rely on continual learning.
-
korrents.com
The whole problem of AI and AGI is the power, and nothing else about it is the problem.Their words
Indeed, the whole problem, what is the problem of AI and AGI? The whole problem is the power. The whole problem is the power. When the power is really big, what's going to happen?
17 October 2025
-
korrents.com
Quietly dropping physical work from the definition of AGI is a major concession, not a clarification.Their words
Now, number one, the first concession that people make all the time is they just take out all the physical stuff because we're just talking about digital knowledge work. I feel like that's a pretty major concession compared to the original definition which was like any task a human can do.
18 August 2025
-
Their words
I don't think all parts of the economy can absorb intelligence equally. So let's just say we develop fairly generalized super intelligence. I always use the analogy like you can invent a lot of drugs, but if clinical trials still take a long time, you're not necessarily going to get new therapies rapidly.
30 July 2025
-
Their words, before
This means that working on neural networks is NOT getting us closer to AGI, except indirectly.
Their words now
It’s become very difficult for me to maintain the belief in the stupidity of ChatGPT when every time I laugh at it, it ends up ridiculing me 6 months later.
23 July 2025
From one piece Demis Hassabis: Future of AI, Simulating Reality, Physics and Video Games | Lex Fridman Podcast #475 4 beliefs, in the piece's order there
-
Their words
My estimate is sort of 50% chance by in the next five years, so by 2030 let's say. So I think there's a good chance that that could happen.
-
Their words
And maybe also make the system available to a few hundred of the world's top experts, the Terence Taos of each subject area and give them a month or two and see if they can find an obvious flaw in the system. And if they can't, then I think you can be pretty confident we have a fully general system.
-
korrents.com
The last steps to AGI should be taken by a CERN-style international research project, not a Manhattan Project.Their words
I hope we'll end up with something more collaborative if needed, more like a CERN project where it's research-focused and the best minds in the world come together to carefully complete the final steps and make sure it's responsibly done before deploying it to the world.
+ 1 more
-
korrents.com
Scaling what we already have, with no further breakthroughs, will be enough to reach AGI.Their words
And so we don't know, I would say it's kind of 50/50 whether new things are needed or whether the scaling the existing stuff is going to be enough.
10 June 2025
-
korrents.com
A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject.Their words
It follows that a true AGI with full, human-level autonomy is inconceivable in the Kantian sense without also gaining our recognition as a moral subject.
7 June 2025
From one piece A knockout blow for LLMs? 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
-
Their words
The vision of AGI I have always had is one that combines the strengths of humans with the strength of machines, overcoming the weaknesses of humans.
-
Their words
What the Apple paper shows, most fundamentally, regardless of how you define AGI, is that LLMs are no substitute for good well-specified conventional algorithms.
-
korrents.com
Anyone who thinks large language models are a direct route to transformative AGI is kidding themselves.Their words
But anybody who thinks LLMs are a direct route to the sort AGI that could fundamentally transform society for the good is kidding themselves.
23 April 2025
1 April 2025
-
Their words
Dismissing discussion of AGI, human-level AI, transformative AI, superintelligence, etc. as “science fiction” should be seen as a sign of total unseriousness.
22 March 2025
-
korrents.com
A strong track record in a technical field is only weak evidence that someone has good strategic judgment about AGI.Their words
Having a good research track record is some evidence of good big-picture takes about AGI, but it's weak evidence.
9 February 2025
3 February 2025
From one piece DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
-
Their words
The important thing about, hey, is cost a limiting factor here? My view is that we'll have really awesome intelligence, like AGI, before we have it permeate throughout the economy.
-
Their words
There's this very good quote from Sam Altman who... He can be a hyperbeast sometimes, but one of the things he said, and I think I agree, is that superhuman persuasion will happen before superhuman intelligence, right? And if that's the case, then these things before we get this AGI ASI stuff, we can embed superhuman persuasion towards our ideal or whatever the ideal of the model maker is, right?
From one piece DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
-
Their words
And for that reason, there's physical constraints to things like AGI, like recursive improvement to kill us all type stuff. For the physical reasons and for how humans have figured things out before, I'm not too worried about AI takeover.
-
Their words
I think my personal definition of AGI is much simpler. I think language models are a form of AGI and all of this super powerful stuff is a next step that's great if we get these tools. But a language model has so much value in so many domains that it's a general intelligence to me.
18 March 2024
From one piece Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #419 5 beliefs, in the piece's order there
-
Their words
And I’ve said for a long time that you think of a quadrant of slow timelines for the start of AGI, long timelines, and then a short takeoff or a fast takeoff. I think short timeline, slow takeoff is the safest quadrant and the one I’d most like us to be in. But I do want to make sure we get that slow takeoff.
-
Their words
I used to love to speculate on that question. I have realized since that I think it’s very poorly formed, and that people use extremely different definitions for what AGI is. So I think it makes more sense to talk about when we’ll build systems that can do capability X or Y or Z, rather than when we fuzzily cross this one mile marker.
-
Their words
In this case, and I think one of the things with our structure that we maybe should have thought about more than we did is that the board of a nonprofit has, unless you put other rules in place, quite a lot of power. They don’t really answer to anyone but themselves. And there’s ways in which that’s good, but what we’d really like is for the board of OpenAI to answer to the world as a whole, as much as that’s a practical thing.
+ 2 more
-
Their words
The road to AGI should be a giant power struggle. The world should… Well, not should. I expect that to be the case.
-
Their words
I continue to not want super-voting control over OpenAI. I never have. Never have had it, never wanted it. Even after all this craziness, I still don’t want it. I continue to think that no company should be making these decisions, and that we really need governments to put rules of the road in place.
1 September 2023
-
Their words
What we don't want to happen with AGI, we want to happen with synthetic biology. What we don't want to happen online and software with language, we want for it to happen with bio-based materials.
29 June 2023
-
Their words
When I talked about will GPT12 be AGI, my answer is no. Of course not. I mean, cross-entropy loss is never going to get you there. You need probably RL in fancy environments in order to get something that would be considered AGI-like.
10 June 2022
-
korrents.com
There is no written plan for surviving AGI, and a world that was going to survive would have had one decades ago.Their words
Surviving worlds, by this point, and in fact several decades earlier, have a plan for how to survive.
19 June 2021
17 July 2020
Nothing matches.
What is a korrent?
A korrent is a belief a person has stated in their own words: one sentence stating the claim, backed by a quote and a source, kept at korrents.com.
Under a name here, the quoted block is what they actually said. The korrent beneath it is the claim those words support, in korrents' wording — tap it to see the record, its source, and who else holds it.
Nobody here wrote their own korrents. They are compiled from public statements, and a person can change their mind, which is recorded too.
About the English under a post
Some people here publish in a language other than English. Where they do, this site shows a machine translation beneath the post, in this typeface — the site's own, not theirs.
The post itself is never changed, moved or hidden: what is set in the serif above is exactly what the person published, and it is what to quote them on. A translation can be wrong in ways that matter, especially about tone.
Only the post's own words are translated. A quoted post, a linked article and a belief on korrents.com are left in their original language.