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Said and published

• Scott Sumner Newsletter 7 Aug Basil Halperin on sticky wage models
• Scott Sumner Newsletter 3 Aug Thoughts on inflation and monetary policy
• Matt Webb x.com 2 Sept llm naming inflation is out of control. Astra and Mythos pretty much maxing out in terms of scale, I mean where do you go from there
• Jason Furman x.com 10 Jun Three things about today's inflation report: 1. 12-month inflation increased (because May-26 > May-25) 2. 1-month inflation slowed (because May-26 < Apr-26) 3. Inflation came in below expectations. Here is core.
• Nick Maggiulli Blog 4 Aug Why $100 in Your 20s is Worth $500 in Your 60s
• Ben Carlson x.com 3 Sept Some questions: Would inflation be even worse if we weren’t in a housing recession? Are private markets the perfect place to hide fraud? Are colleges screwed? Is NVDA the anti-bubble? How important is the wealth effect…
• Brad DeLong Newsletter 1 Sept The Fed Chairman Who Would Prefer Not to Say: Warsh’s Silence as a Position, Not a Puzzle: TUESDAY MACRO OUTLOOK
• Jason Furman x.com 25 Jun PCE inflation came in high. And the details were even more worrying than the headline as the risk of inflation mounting outside the tariff/Iran affected sectors. Core PCE annual rate: 1 month: 3.9% 3 months: 3.5% 6…
• Jason Furman x.com 25 Jun PCE-based ecumenical underlying inflation measure was 3.5% in May. As most metrics are highly elevated.
• Nick Maggiulli x.com 4 Aug What if I told you that $100 at 25 is worth $500 at 65 even AFTER we adjust for inflation? My latest on why your money is worth a lot more when you're young:
• Jason Furman x.com 28 Jun This is the cut of the data that had people especially worried about inflation after this week's PCE infaltion release.
• Terence Eden Mastodon 8 Sept Finally gave in to lifestyle inflation and bought a fizzy water maker. So far I have only carbonated tap water. What things have you successfully bubbled that I should try? (I know how to search the Internet. I am…
• Michael Batnick Blog 29 Jul Animal Spirits: 45 Million Rich Households
• Michael Batnick Blog 27 Jul Talk Your Book: Is Crypto Dead?
• Michael Batnick Blog 22 Jul Animal Spirits: Say Bubble One More Time. I Dare You!
• Jason Furman x.com 10 Jun Looking at today's headlines on inflation I want to re-up this. Is a peculiarity that 100% of the jobs focus is 1-month while majority of inflation focus is 12-months. If May-25 jobs was 400K & May-26 was 300K the…
• Michael Batnick Blog 24 Jul The Compound and Friends: Secrets From the Greatest Fund Manager of All Time
• Jason Furman x.com 28 May Core PCE inflation in April was below expectations while still very high. Annual rates: 1 month: 2.9% 3 months: 3.8% 6 months: 3.8% 12 months: 3.3%
• Brian Potter Korrent 23 Apr It has virtually never got cheaper to build a house or an office: construction costs rise at or above general inflation, in every rich country and over a century of data. Construction costs tend to rise at, or above, the level of overall inflation, and it rarely (if ever) gets cheaper to build houses, offices, or other buildings.
• Scott Sumner Changed their mind 14 Jan 2023 The Federal Reserve's average inflation targeting framework is a real commitment to hold inflation near a 2% average across the 2020s, so an overshoot now has to be offset by undershoots later. I assumed they intended inflation to average roughly 2% during the 2020s.
• Dan Luu x.com 29 May In 10 years, will at least one of {Anthropic, OpenAI} be a public company valued at >= $1T in May 2026 dollars after adjusting for S&P 500 valuations (analogous to inflation adjustment, but using S&P 500 instead of CPI)?
• Jason Furman x.com 28 May Chair Warsh's preferred (?) inflation signal measure picking up a little but remains muted compared to other measures. Trimmed mean PCE which throws out extremes was a 2.5% annual rate in April and 2.3% over the last…
• Noah Smith Korrent 25 Jul 2022 Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022. Even more importantly, cash benefits seem to have contributed at least somewhat to the dangerous and painful inflation that the economy is now experiencing.
• Bryan Caplan Korrent 19 Feb 2025 The main function of education is signalling rather than building skill, so subsidising it mostly inflates credentials. Since signaling, not building human capital, is the main function of education, the main effect of government subsidies is credential inflation.
• Olivier Blanchard Korrent 1 Jun 2022 Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total. …just their composition. And it does not automatically lead to more inflation: It increases the size of the balance sheet of the central bank, but it does not increase the size of the non-interest-paying money…
• Olivier Blanchard Korrent 1 Jun 2022 Judging by output kept near potential despite weak private demand, Japan's decades of high debt and low inflation reflect a qualified policy success, not failure. Japanese macroeconomic policy is often characterized as a failure, with the central bank unable to achieve its inflation target, a low growth rate, and debt ratios steadily rising to reach more than 170% for net debt…
• Olivier Blanchard Korrent 6 Nov 2023 The sharp steepening of the long end of the yield curve in 2023 was not predicted by economists, including forecasters who had modelled persistently low safe rates. …the yield curve to reflect the higher rates needed to win the fight against inflation, the sharply steeper long end of the yield curve in the last few months has come as a surprise. I shall freely admit that I did not…