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Said and published
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🔗 Chill racist games hosted by the US government https://birchtree.me/blog/chill-racist-games-hosted-by-the-us-government/
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Government Denies Knowledge
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Chill racist games hosted by the US government
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The real danger of high government debt is the policy errors it provokes, not a debt crisis.
But I am worried about high government debt levels causing policy errors.
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The Invest America app design is fantastic. (Surprising given that it's government related.)
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My Most Contrarian Opinion Right Now
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Government borrowing through the financial crisis and the pandemic was a good trade, because it repaired household balance sheets.
I think the fact that the government took on debt during two crises to help households was a good trade-off.
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The Trump administration is trying to undo even the most essential functions of government and turn the country back to the 19th century or before.
It’s an administration that’s trying to turn us back to the 19th century or before. It’s really just trying to undo even the most essential functions of government.
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…first responders who are working around the clock to keep people safe. Our government is in close communication with the provincial government and remains ready to provide any support…
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Most high-skilled Europeans are happy to pay even high taxes, provided the government does a great job in return.
I think most high skilled Europeans are happy to pay (even high) taxes That is, if the government does a great job like Singapore or Dubai or Korea or Japan and most things work well You pay the government for a service…
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"Multiple people now literally have the wealth of nations, or at least that of large government agencies. No wonder public policy is in shambles."
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A government's debt dynamics are a household's or a company's, except that it can print money and tax -- and those two powers are what change the ending.
The debt dynamics work the same for a central government as they do for a person or a company, except that a central government has a central bank that can print money (which devalues it) and it can take money away from…
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…(not very much, but a bit) and thus increases the interest rate paid by the governments of the euro zone. This indeed makes things a bit harder for the government, who now pay more on their debt. Is the ECB doing this…
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Strong encryption limits what governments can do in ways that legislation cannot.
Encryption thus limits governments in a way no legislation can.
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"A more zero-sum mindset is strongly associated with more support for government redistribution, race- and gender-based affirmative action, and more restrictive immigration policies."
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"As National Statistician, Andre will lead the wider UK statistical system, providing advice to the government on statistical matters." What else would you have a national statistician do?
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Remember back in 2009 when the radical republicans were the ones calling for much smaller government? Yeah, me neither. But I think they were called fascists for that too.
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A government is legitimate internally if the governed have consented to it, whatever form it takes.
Given the consent of the governed, any form of government is internally legitimate.
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I'm confused. Isn't the Speaker of the House of Representatives literally the most senior member of that particular branch of the US government? Who exactly is "upstairs" to him?
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153,000,000 American driver licenses leaked in KYC hack This is 63% of all American driver licenses In US driver licenses function as valid government-issues photo IDs
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This is the Britain I want us to build: government providing the foundations, local leaders providing the plan, and businesses providing the investment, jobs and opportunities. All working towards that same goal: good…
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AI Use by the US Government
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While real estate prices crash in the rest of the city due to mass government layoffs and Trump’s punitive treatment of DC
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The US federal government has lost the capacity to build basic infrastructure, let alone advanced military hardware.
This US government can’t build a bathroom in San Francisco, let alone a costeffective fighter jet, destroyer, combat ship, or aircraft carrier.
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Seems timely from April 2025: Government will keep failing to change much of anything because they keep litigating problems of the past without much understanding for how to fix the future – especially given things…
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…the social implications of those hitting various adversarial touchpoints in government and elsewhere, and a bit of how Pangram works under the…
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…routine because they know that gigantic tech corps allied with right-wing governments are not going to produce any left outcomes. So, they write fan fiction like…
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Long power cuts on every alternative days, What is @TANGEDCO_Offcl doing? That too after a recent power cable change for the entire street. TNEB scam is still hapening in @TVKPartyHQ government?
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I am proud of everything we have achieved together. To everyone who has supported this Labour government: thank you.
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Micronations like Sealand fail because they start from territory and government rather than building outward from a people and shared culture.
This gives us a new perspective on why micronations like Sealand don’t work: they start backwards, from the territory and the government, rather than working forwards from a people and their culture.
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Excited to see @mui_labo highlighted by the Government of Japan!
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A government confident it's policy should be able to answer basic questions: is Norway opposing settlements—or making Jewish presence itself the test? The Deputy Foreign Minister’s refusal to answer says it all. Thank…
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Chill racist games hosted by the US government
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…liabilities of either the central bank (bank reserves are the same) or the government (the debt held by private investors is the…
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The United States is not at risk of a financial crisis caused by the size of its government debt.
So my baseline assumption is that people will continue complaining about the trillions of dollars we have in debt but it won’t lead to a financial crisis.
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…the story is don't buy Clorox for 30x earnings and don't lend money to the government for a 0.6% yield. If you do, you're gonna have a bad…
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…Reuse and rapid rocket launch cadence isn't optional (unless it is a government funded jobs program and a huge bonfire of money is not a concern).…
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The Washington Monument on the Potomac River, Kawase Hasui, 1935 - depicting the cherry trees that were a gift from the Japanese government and planted in 1912.
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I do not see the conflict between the view that the App Store review system is failing and the view that it's not the government's business to intervene. Allowing failing systems to fail is how market forces work.…
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How AI Madness Helped Fuel DOGE
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I have made it my mission to give a voice to those who were ignored for too long. I promised that my government would deliver the Hillsborough Law. I’m proud that today we’re making good on that promise.
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…by AI) increasing the visibility, legibility and accountability of their governments. Historically, it is the governments that act to make society legible (e.g. "Seeing like a state" is the common reference), but…
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Our Most Dangerous Labs Have a Problem No One Wants to Fix
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Network School Kazakhstan is now officially open, with a packed crowd for the ribbon cutting, and government officials welcoming us. Kazakhstan is a high-tech country that recently ranked #1 in the International Physics…
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…subsidizing energy made from fossil fuels is killing civilization. The UK government should look for a way to subsidize the customers for energy, but not subsidize fossil fuel or electricity made from that. We must…
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AI will let citizens make their governments legible and accountable, reversing the historical direction in which only states could read society.
Something I've been thinking about - I am bullish on people (empowered by AI) increasing the visibility, legibility and accountability of their governments.
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…I am referring to competitive attacks from China and dependence, if any, on government policy incentives, etc. There have been so many solar energy and wind energy bubbles in the past, and I have kept away from these…
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…experiences with their GP, dentist, and pharmacist since we’ve been in government. Delivering real change to people across the…
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Food safety regulation is an essential government role that cannot be left to the private sector or to individuals doing their own research.
And this is not something that you can leave up to the private sector. It’s not something where you can do your own research. It’s a very complicated world out there. And the informational burden of trying to figure out…
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…the past two weeks, I’ve had conversations with folks across a dozen+ U.S. government offices, multiple foreign missions in DC, and several lawyers focused on cybersecurity. A majority of people I spoke with were…
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Back to writing
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…wonder which agency is doing this, the city is flooded with talent yet the government gave the project to someone who messed…
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…Governor Newsom accuses the US government of investigating him and his wife hoping to find something to smear him with, because he plans to run for president in 2028. I do…
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The House of Government — Yuri Slezkine
Imagined Communities, Invisible Countries, The Origins of Political Order, How to Hide an Empire, The House of Government
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India’s government has shown it can push pro-growth reform through over the objections of incumbents.
But it shows that India’s government is able to push through pro-growth reforms over the objections of incumbent stakeholders.
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Knives and Kids
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Moral hazard problems are often worse in government programs than in private markets.
The truth is that moral hazard concerns very often are worse with government programs than with markets.
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We are at a turning point: many of the decisions we make about AI today will permanently shape our future. Governments and the public need to clearly understand the impacts, risks, and opportunities of AI to make the…
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The late stage of the Big Debt Cycle shows itself as long rates leading rates up, the currency falling against gold, and the treasury shortening maturities.
…rates, the currency declining especially relative to gold, and the central government’s treasury department shortening the maturities of its debt offerings because of a shortage of the demand for long-term…
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Canceling government bonds held by a central bank creates no fiscal space, because the reduction in government interest payments is exactly offset by an equal reduction in the profits the central bank remits to the government.
…would decrease the amount of interest payments and thus the debt service of governments. And indeed, it would. But it would have another effect—namely, to decrease the revenues of the central bank and thus the profits…
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Dangerous Technology For Americans Only
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A government debt crisis is measurable and therefore visible well in advance; the diagnostic is mechanical rather than a matter of judgement.
Because one can measure these things, one can monitor this debt dynamic happening, so it’s easy to see problems approaching. I’ve used this diagnostic process in my investing and I’ve kept it to myself, but I’m now…
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After a European exit tax, the EU will try to tax its citizens' worldwide income wherever in the world they live.
European governments and thus the EU too is losing lots of tax income from Europeans fleeing Next on the agenda is the European Exit Tax and after that I think they will try to add Worldwide Income Tax (like the US…
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Breakneck — Dan Wang
Wang argues that the US & China each have a dominant form of government problem-solving
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…decisions about their future being taken somewhere else, by someone else. Governments have talked about those things. They've even promised to fix them. But too often, they've reached the same conclusion: it just…
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…I didn’t even expect it to survive the prototyping stage. Now it’s used by governments (including Switzerland, which is ironic in a way) and non-profit organizations around the world, bringing good typography to the…
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Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total.
Governments have not been bailed out by their central banks. As I discussed earlier, central bank intervention does not reduce the overall liabilities of the consolidated government, just their composition. And it does…
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All It Takes Is All You Got
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…keep the EU united despite these escalating and serious acts. The German government has taken strong measures. And the message is clear: hybrid attacks will not go without a clear response. We are united in our…
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The UK is cutting its aid budget to the lowest level in decades
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…help Venezuela discuss with its creditors. At this point, the Venezuelan government has no choice than to obey instructions from the US, has no bargaining power and the US adminstration is heavily on the side of…
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Xi Jinping is mostly right about the problems he identifies, and his government's brute-force solutions reliably make them worse.
The trouble with Xi Jinping is that he is 60 percent correct on all the problems he sees, while his government’s brute force solutions reliably worsen things.
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"The game of technology is defined and controlled by the United States of America. Local governments can impose rules that moderate the impact, but genuine limitations on technology are impossible. Or, they used to be."…
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A longer average debt maturity protects a government from temporary interest-rate spikes and gives it more time to adjust to permanent rate increases.
A longer maturity of debt protects the government from a temporary increase in the short run interest rate, and it gives it more time to adjust to a permanent increase.
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Invisible Countries — Joshua Keating
Imagined Communities, Invisible Countries, The Origins of Political Order, How to Hide an Empire, The House of Government
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Imagined Communities — Benedict Anderson
Imagined Communities, Invisible Countries, The Origins of Political Order, How to Hide an Empire, The House of Government
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There is no clearly defined notion of who the right people are to entrust with power, which warrants deep skepticism of government on public choice grounds.
I am myself skeptical that there is a clearly defined notion of who “the right people” might be, and thus I am on public choice grounds far more skeptical of government than Keynes was.
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🆕✍️ As AI displaces jobs, the US government should create new jobs building affordable housing: What if some displaced workers help build the housing we need? gabrielweinberg.com/p/as-ai-disp...
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How to Hide an Empire — Daniel Immerwahr
Imagined Communities, Invisible Countries, The Origins of Political Order, How to Hide an Empire, The House of Government
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The Origins of Political Order — Francis Fukuyama
Imagined Communities, Invisible Countries, The Origins of Political Order, How to Hide an Empire, The House of Government
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Assessing whether government debt is sustainable is as much an art as a science.
assessing debt sustainability is as much art as it is science.
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Quantitative rules are not a reliable tool for ensuring government debt sustainability.
I am skeptical of the use of quantitative rules to ensure debt sustainability.
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…IMF reports on China. But it runs directly contrary to the official government diagnosis which is that aggregate demand is fine and the economy mainly…
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Quoted subsidy totals for meat and fossil fuels mostly describe unpriced damage, not money any government could take back and spend elsewhere.
Again, you cannot pay for the externalities by pulling subsidies (there is nothing there to pull
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Governments should pay a lot for children and let the people who respond reveal which cultural compromises are acceptable, rather than deciding in advance which value to give up.
It seems to me that an attractive robust approach is to have governments pay lots for kids (at no cost or risk to them!) and then let those who respond to these incentives tell us which compromises seem most attractive.
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When the United States and other governments suddenly cut their aid budgets, I know for a fact that more children will die. Here’s the proof I’m showing Congress.
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For the better part of a decade, I've been writing that the US government's restrictions on Chinese tech companies were unstrategic, poorly explained, and based in caprice (https://t.co/Ohrn9qFtIL). Now it looks like…
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Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology — Chris Miller
Chris Miller tells us the history of how microchips were developed, emphasizing the critical role of the government, and especially defense procurement.
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No company should be making the decisions about AGI, and no one person should have super-voting control of one; governments have to put rules of the road in place.
…that no company should be making these decisions, and that we really need governments to put rules of the road in…
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The main function of education is signalling rather than building skill, so subsidising it mostly inflates credentials.
Since signaling, not building human capital, is the main function of education, the main effect of government subsidies is credential inflation.
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We are at a turning point: many of the decisions we make about AI today will permanently shape our future. Governments and the public need to clearly understand the impacts, risks, and opportunities of AI to make the…
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Historical trajectories of local government in India and China
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Both markets and states are spontaneous orders, not just the state as constructed 'taxis' versus the market as 'cosmos'.
In my own view, both markets and states are spontaneous orders, and government is not uniquely the product of “taxis” or “rationalist constructivism.”
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On AI the state's job does not stop at safety; leaving everything else to the market is a mistake.
We shouldn’t just focus on safety and leave the rest to the market… Government has a responsibility to make it work for working people…
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Large numbers of people are employed to care more about following approved procedure than about the quality of the outcome.
And there are a whole bunch of people who are employed not always by the government just as much by the private sector who are much more interested in adherence to uh approved procedure than they are in quality of…
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China's central government has a stronger record of pulling off politically difficult reforms than any other developing country.
It has displayed a stronger record of reform than any other developing country, as the leadership keeps pulling off politically-difficult tasks: shrinking the state sector, re-orienting the economy towards export-led…
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There is no universal debt-to-GDP threshold beyond which government debt becomes unsustainable; sustainability depends on factors like the real interest rate.
The analysis in this chapter has shown that there is no such thing as a universal threshold over which debt becomes unsustainable, and that the relevant debt level depends on many factors, in particular the real…
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Britain must be an AI maker rather than an AI taker, and a government should not stay neutral about who shapes the technology.
This is the global race of our lives. Now, some countries are going to make AI breakthroughs and export them… Others will end up buying those breakthroughs and importing them. The question is – which of those will…
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Only the US and China have substantial startup activity left; the rest of the world cannot really do startups.
…can't grow them and it's more like performative hobby projects for their governments Which might tell us where the future wealth will be concentrated in the…
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Facing Addiction in America: The Surgeon General’s Report on Alcohol, Drugs, and Health — Office of the Surgeon General (U.S.)
Facing Addiction in America is also the first governmental attempt to ground policy not in prejudice but in research, not in conjecture but in science. It collates an impressive body of evidence to illuminate the…
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Politics on the Edge — Rory Stewart
…to read this book and despair of electoralism and the current structures of governments, but it's bracing to know that even some people I disagree with believe in the value of…
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His advice to his own estate's trustee is the same advice he gives everyone: almost all of it into a low-cost S&P 500 index fund, not with a high-fee manager.
My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard’s.) I believe the trust’s long-term results from…