Scott Sumner
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8 October
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28 September
23 September
From one piece Wanna bet? 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I do believe that most tech people overestimate the risk of mass job loss from AI, but that's because economics is one area where I feel I do have some expertise.
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Their words
Nonetheless, I suspect that in the long run the cost/benefit calculation for AI tends to favor the poor.
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korrents.com
Market prices, used appropriately, are the best available way to evaluate the likelihood of future outcomes.Their words
I do believe that market prices, used appropriately, are the best way of evaluating the likelihood of various future outcomes.
18 September
From one piece Adam Smith’s greatest insight? 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Smith would probably be able to explain to our foreign policy establishment why Russia's economy continued to do well after "draconian" sanctions were imposed in early 2022, and why economic sanctions almost never achieve their policy goals.
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korrents.com
People systematically overestimate how much any single economic shock affects the macroeconomy.Their words
That's not to say that real shocks never matter-Covid certainly had an impact on the economy-rather that people tend to overestimate the impact of any given shock.
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korrents.com
Draconian price controls are among the most ruinous economic policies a government can impose.Their words
Draconian price controls are among the most ruinous of all economic policies.
14 September
From one piece Don't mix fiscal and monetary policy 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
First, the public hates inflation, much more than they hate taxes.
Don't mix fiscal and monetary policyscottsumner.substack.com
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korrents.com
Under a 2% inflation-targeting regime, monetary policy carries no meaningful fiscal implications.Their words
But under a 2% inflation targeting regime, it is not worth thinking about the fiscal implications of monetary policy-it's just not that important.
Don't mix fiscal and monetary policyscottsumner.substack.com
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korrents.com
The real interest rate in the long run is determined by market forces, not by monetary policy.Their words
In fact, the real interest rate is almost entirely determined by market forces in the long run, not by monetary policy.
Don't mix fiscal and monetary policyscottsumner.substack.com
10 September
From one piece A cheesehead’s view of the world 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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I suspect that Wright is under-appreciated because architectural critics prefer urbanism to Wright's suburban approach.
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korrents.com
The left/right framework is inadequate for understanding the political culture of places like Wisconsin or Sweden.Their words
The key to understanding places like Wisconsin (or Sweden) is to look past the outdated left/right approach to political ideology.
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Their words
In other posts, I've argued that the distinguishing feature of utilitarianism is the idea that every person's welfare is equally important.
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