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Morgan Housel x.com
It's not a perfect analogy but I view this as the equivalent of "most college players don't make the NBA." You shouldn't expect the majority of people to succeed at a very hard thing.
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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20 September
19 September
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Their words
In QE, the Treasury issued long-term bonds. The Fed bought up the long bonds, issued overnight debt, and passed the interest difference back to the Treasury. In the end, it is just as if the Treasury issued overnight debt in the first place.
18 September
16 September
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korrents.com
Within a few years, ordinary people will have on-demand AI superforecasters comparable to top human forecasters.Their words
AI superforecasters are coming. Within a few years, the average person will have the equivalent of a Nate Silver in their pocket, ready to predict whatever question they can think to ask it.
AI Superforecasting Should Transform The FDAastralcodexten.com
14 September
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korrents.com
Small disadvantages relative to others hurt more than equivalent small advantages help.Their words
It's unfair, not only materially, but psychologically. The bad we feel about small disadvantages is greater than the good we feel about small advantages.
9 September
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Their words
WebP is typically 25-35% smaller than PNG at equivalent visual quality, useful for HTML reports where file size matters
5 September
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korrents.com
AI-enabled cyberwarfare lacks an equivalent of nuclear deterrence's mutually assured destruction.Their words
AI hacking doesn’t have mutually assured destruction, like nuclear warfare does.
America is still beating China in the AI racenoahpinion.blog
4 September
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korrents.com
New view prediction is to spatial intelligence what next token prediction is to language.Their words
we do believe very strongly that next viewpoint prediction is is the equivalent of next token prediction.
3 September
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The irony is that gamification is a brittle imitation of an actual game.
11 August
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I do I do think that I wish that sort of my preferred constitution or like the way I would orient towards this like the thing I would prefer would be more like Claude is like look it would be structurally good for the way this technology work like the constitution should be like it would be structurally good for the way this technology works to be that AIS are like good fiduciaries, good representatives, the equivalent of a lawyer for a user
9 August
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“you are a devil’s advocate, disagree with everything” is probably the worst possible prompt for this agent. within a week everyone would ignore her. she’d become the slack equivalent of a smoke detector that goes off whenever somebody makes toast.
5 August
28 July
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Their words
I think it will feel like the next six months is like maybe equivalent to the last two years of model progress something like that
29 June
19 March
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Problem is, you can solve SQL injection by parameterizing your queries. You can't do that with LLMs.
15 March
12 February
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Their words
But then you actually sit down and do the maths, and then for most people if you just skip one burger per month, that compensates the, the CO2 output, or, like, the water use in equivalent of tokens.
26 November 2025
17 October 2025
From one piece Andrej Karpathy — “We’re summoning ghosts, not building animals” 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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But I guess like the notion of culture and of written record and of like passing down notes between each other. I don't think there's an equivalent of that with LM right now. So LM don't really have culture right now and it's kind of like one of the I think uh impediments I would say.
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These models don't really have this distillation phase um of taking what happened, analyzing it, obsessively thinking through it, um basically doing some kind of a synthetic data generation process and distilling it back back into the weights
4 September 2025
From one piece Dave Hone: T-Rex, Dinosaurs, Extinction, Evolution, and Jurassic Park | Lex Fridman Podcast #480 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Yes, it's what ultimately killed the dinosaurs, but I'd be amazed if there wasn't some equivalent of Hawaii or New Zealand or some other tucked away island or valley where actually dinosaurs were fine for anything from a few hundred thousand to a couple of million years.
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Why don't Chinese dragons look like Mexican dragons or equivalent thunderbirds or whatever? Well, because it probably wasn't influencing them. If they were all seeing the same skeleton, they'd probably all produce the same kind of mythical animals.
3 September 2025
2 September 2025
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korrents.com
Large language models have no network effect, and remembering a user is a switching cost rather than one.Their words
there's no apparent equivalent in LLM right now there's no reason why the LMS get better because more people use them now that may come you have that open AI and people have doing memory where it remembers what else you've asked, but that seems more like a switching cost than a network effect.
24 May 2025
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It’s like, no, because the moment Hitler stopped the war, the bombing would stop. The moment the war stopped in Hitler’s favor, the killing would continue and be accelerated.
28 April 2025
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