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Ben Kuhn x.com
I've been reflecting recently on Wave's growth spurt in 2019-21. Most teams grew 2-4x a year for multiple years, and culture and effectiveness stayed remarkably strong compared to what I'd have expected (or heard of elsewhere). Some thoughts on what might have helped:
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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12 September
9 September
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1 September
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It is highly fortunate that the OpenAI agents hacked HuggingFace. This is the only reason we know about all the severe internal failures at OpenAI, and gives us an opportunity to wake up before it is too late.
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In this case, however, the agents did not copy their weights, attempt to procure replacement compute, or take other steps that would be rational to take if their objective was to survive shutdown. So while the agents in the OpenAI-Hugging Face Incident were rogue, they were not truly sovereign.
25 August
18 August
17 August
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So, I thought this was a really cool study because it showed very clearly that there is temporal persistence in emotions and sadness probably has one of the longest time constants as we know from personal experience. But it's separate from just declarative memory.
11 August
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I think one reason why um the the AIs have been scaled up less than you would have otherwise expected and like for example cost of of per token hasn't increased as much as you might have thought is because there's a benefit to doing more of your um work at small scale where you can run more training runs and get more cycles in
15 July
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I think context engineering has been so long lived because it's it's grounded in the fundamentals of how transformer attention works and until we have post transformer models or linear attention or whatever it is which who knows when that's going to happen context engineering will be interesting and important to anyone building on AI
24 June
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And the second reason that's stayed sticky is that companies just have no idea how to evaluate. Like And they probably never did.
16 June
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4 June
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but of course, that's not what's happened, because as we've accumulated more wealth and you know, more advanced machines and and so on, we've expanded the range of things other than singers to spend our money on, and the share spent on singers has stayed sort of negligible. Um so likewise, that's sort of my central prediction about how future unfolds, though I it could go either way.
7 April
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For years, it was faster to mock up software than to ship it. Designers stayed "ahead" of engineering with prototypes. Now AI coding agents make development so much faster that the loop has flipped.
23 March
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You know, our computer price is going up, but our token generation effectiveness is going up so much faster that token cost is coming down. It's just coming down an order of magnitude every year.
18 November 2025
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korrents.com
The effectiveness of a plot twist depends on how carefully a story's point of view relates to its audience.Their words
Point of view is essential for effective twists. Contrast Frozen with Fight Club, where the narrator's unreliability works because the entire story flows through his perspective and he maintains a direct relationship with the audience through fourth-wall breaks.
Frozen's Lie: How a Tiny Detail Can Ruin a Storynateliason.com
22 October 2025
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I had typed "Taylor Swift" in a browser, and the response had literally zero links to Taylor Swift's actual website. If you stayed within what Atlas generated, you would have no way of knowing that Taylor Swift has a website at all.
18 September 2025
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But again, the people who love to solve problems are the ones who are just so enabled right now and I think everyone starts there. No one is falls in love with solutions at the beginning of their careers.
13 July 2025
4 June 2025
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Their words, before
The problem is that the conversational interface is potent and that the AI is trained on a lot of human text input which unfortunately is probably enough to do real damage if that conversational interface is hooked up with something that has real world consequences.
Their words now
While all this is happening, I’ve found myself reflecting a lot on what AI means to the world and I am becoming increasingly optimistic about our future. It’s obvious now that we’re undergoing a tremendous shift.
26 December 2024
21 August 2024
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korrents.com
Therapists overestimate their own effectiveness by about 65%, and it is not a Western cultural artifact.Their words
Since 2012 when the first study appeared in the literature, others have been published documenting the tendency of practitioners to overestimate their effectiveness - on average, by 65% (1, 2).
Alas, it seems everyone comes from Lake Wobegonwritings.scottdmiller.com
2 July 2024
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Over the last 50 years, treatment methods have proliferated despite a lack of evidence of differential effectiveness between approaches. And even when a randomized controlled trial indicates a particular approach works, none show practitioners become more effective when they are trained in that modality.
21 May 2024
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It's time for the field to stop attributing benefits to clinical experience. Beyond the obvious ethical concerns, doing so actually prevents us from improving our effectiveness!
21 December 2023
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While there are interesting theoretical arguments for these causes, there’s a disconnect between an almost-neurotic focus on hard evidence of effectiveness in some areas of EA and a willingness to accept extremely abstract and conjectural “evidence” in others.
15 March 2023
7 September 2022
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So, there is no necessary trajectory towards great complexity in human beings at the end of it. It’s very easy to imagine that without photosynthesis arising or without eukaryotes arising, that the planet could be full of bacteria and nothing else.
6 April 2022
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Despite the unreasonable effectiveness of simple architectures, most press goes to complex architectures.
1 December 2021
17 November 2021
20 January 2021
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korrents.com
Pre-grant peer review predicts which research will have impact substantially better than chance does.Their words
I have reviewed before the effectiveness of peer review at figuring out "what's good" in the context of grant awards, finding that peer review as currently practiced does substantially better than chance at predicting future impact, especially for the most impactful of the papers; but at the same time is is far from perfect, leaving plenty of variance unexplained.
1 December 2020
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