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19 September
From one piece Better Debt 2 beliefs · grumpy-economist.com
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Their words
In QE, the Treasury issued long-term bonds. The Fed bought up the long bonds, issued overnight debt, and passed the interest difference back to the Treasury. In the end, it is just as if the Treasury issued overnight debt in the first place.
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Their words
Simplifying a bit, the Treasury should introduce a fixed-coupon perpetuity and a fixed-value floating-rate perpetuity. These should gradually make up the bulk of government debt.
18 September
16 September
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Their words
Republicans' long-term strategy, since Reagan, is to spend a lot of money (mainly on things that won't benefit non-rich Americans), refuse to raise taxes, and therefore greatly increase the national debt.
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Their words
If the useful life of an NVIDIA H100-vintage cluster turns out to really be three years rather than six, the capex cycle's economics invert, and the leverage that looked prudent looks reckless.
15 September
13 September
11 September
9 September
8 September
7 September
29 August
28 August
From one piece My Most Contrarian Opinion Right Now 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I think the fact that the government took on debt during two crises to help households was a good trade-off.
My Most Contrarian Opinion Right Nowawealthofcommonsense.com
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korrents.com
The real danger of high government debt is the policy errors it provokes, not a debt crisis.Their words
But I am worried about high government debt levels causing policy errors.
My Most Contrarian Opinion Right Nowawealthofcommonsense.com
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korrents.com
The United States is not at risk of a financial crisis caused by the size of its government debt.Their words
So my baseline assumption is that people will continue complaining about the trillions of dollars we have in debt but it won’t lead to a financial crisis.
My Most Contrarian Opinion Right Nowawealthofcommonsense.com
24 August
21 August
From one piece How Countries Go Broke: The Dynamic Behind What is Happening Now 3 beliefs · raydalio.substack.com
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Their words
The debt dynamics work the same for a central government as they do for a person or a company, except that a central government has a central bank that can print money (which devalues it) and it can take money away from people via taxes.
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Their words
Early in the final stage of the Big Debt Cycle, the market action reflects this dynamic via interest rates rising led by long-term rates, the currency declining especially relative to gold, and the central government’s treasury department shortening the maturities of its debt offerings because of a shortage of the demand for long-term debt.
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Their words
Because one can measure these things, one can monitor this debt dynamic happening, so it’s easy to see problems approaching. I’ve used this diagnostic process in my investing and I’ve kept it to myself, but I’m now explaining it in detail in How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle because it is too important to keep to myself.
19 August
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Their words
the first is cognitive debt. So the more that you use AI, it's it's sort of the erosion of your ability to have good memory and have good understanding of the problems that you're working on. And the natural follow-up to that is cognitive surrender, which is where you, you know, you blindly give in to whatever the AI says as your answer.
30 July
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korrents.com
Buying beyond what you can comfortably afford leaves people financially weaker and stuck living paycheck to paycheck.Their words
Buying from a position of weakness keeps people in debt and living pay check to pay check.
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The Signal and the NoiseTheir words
And, in addition, Nate Silver’s earlier book The Signal and the Noise was, I thought, brilliant. I am forever deeply in his debt for his making me better-informed and wiser across a whole bunch of different dimensions.
17 July
16 July
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Their words
I have the Wigglesworth and Moore books on my desk, queued up for my hammock reading
14 July
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
A Fabulous DebtTheir words
Yes, a book about the history of the bond market can be entertaining and enlightening.
2 June
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Their words
I think that you owe it to in that moral contract to your good employees to fire the weak people. And they're not bad people. They may be really smart. They are not effective in your organization. They are not taking hills.
3 May
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Their words
We owe a debt, not to companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, or Google, but to the authors of the free public raw materials that were used to train AI.
9 December 2025
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Their words
Debt is neither a good thing nor a bad thing per se. Likewise, the use of leverage in the AI industry shouldn’t be applauded or feared.
28 November 2025
20 May 2025
14 April 2025
From one piece Tariffs, saving, and investment 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
But the spike in interest rates require to do this would be huge. And the trade shock will cause a sharp recession, or worse, putting even more stress on the budget. A debt crisis is likely along the way as the US finds it impossible to roll over debt.
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korrents.com
America borrowed cheaply from the world and spent it on consumption rather than investment, exactly as Greece did.Their words
In sum, spurred on by the federal government (in many ways), the US borrowed a huge amount from foreigners at very low rates, and went on a consumption binge. Sooner or later we have to pay it back, or we go though the wrenching adjustment of a debt crisis.
4 March 2025
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Their words, before
Es ist in der nahe liegenden Zukunft ausgeschlossen, dass wir die Schuldenbremse reformieren.
Their words now
Angesichts der Bedrohungen unserer Freiheit und des Friedens auf unserem Kontinent muss jetzt auch für unsere Verteidigung gelten: Whatever it takes.
13 January 2025
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korrents.com
Most people should get married and have kids much earlier than the current average, and have more of them.Their words, before
If you're a guy in your early 20's, get married and have kids. Go into debt if you have to.
Their words now
Most people should get married and have kids much earlier than the current average (and have more kids than the current average). Doing this successfully (without screwing it up with selfish pride) will make the world better and make them happier than anything else they’re doing.
8 January 2025
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korrents.com
The United States is not at risk of a financial crisis caused by the size of its government debt.Their words
Stabilizing factors such as the global demand for U.S. dollars and debt denominated in its own currency suggest an era of fiscal dominance in the U.S. that's less dramatic than alarmists predict but more persistent and intractable than optimists hope.
30 April 2024
From one piece How I Think About Debt 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
The real price of debt is paid in options and flexibility, which is the asset that matters most.Their words
you start to see it as a constraint on the asset that matters most: having options and flexibility
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korrents.com
Debt is best understood as narrowing the range of outcomes you can survive, not as a cost of capital.Their words
I think this is the most practical way to think about debt: As debt increases, you narrow the range of outcomes you can endure in life.
6 November 2023
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Their words, before
If the future is like the past, this implies that debt rollovers—that is, the issuance of debt without a subsequent increase in taxes—may well be feasible. Put bluntly, public debt may have no fiscal cost.
Their words now
Across advanced economies, the celebrated ( r - g ), i.e., the difference between the interest rate and the growth rate, appears to have durably changed sign or, at a minimum, to have gone from a substantially negative number to a number closer to zero.
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Their words
Thus, once current debt has been refinanced and the average interest on debt reflects the higher long rates, absent changes in policy, debt ratios will increase.
17 June 2023
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Dislikedrcmnd.app
Debt: The First 5000 YearsTheir words
I don’t know about you, but I personally feel starved of ambitious sensemaking frames for recent history that aren’t quite as silly as say Friedman’s World is Flat or Harari’s Sapiens, or quite as ideologically compromised as Graeber’s Debt.
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Dislikedrcmnd.app
The World Is FlatTheir words
I don’t know about you, but I personally feel starved of ambitious sensemaking frames for recent history that aren’t quite as silly as say Friedman’s World is Flat or Harari’s Sapiens, or quite as ideologically compromised as Graeber’s Debt.
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Dislikedrcmnd.app
SapiensTheir words
I don’t know about you, but I personally feel starved of ambitious sensemaking frames for recent history that aren’t quite as silly as say Friedman’s World is Flat or Harari’s Sapiens, or quite as ideologically compromised as Graeber’s Debt.
13 March 2023
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