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The Merchants of Doubt are coming for Extreme Event Attribution science
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20 September
19 September
14 September
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foundation is ostensibly a sci-fi series about empires, psychohistory, and hard technology, but really it's about individuals with extreme agency and puzzle-solving ability having wildly outsized impact on a universe that would otherwise just sit there waiting to decay
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korrents.com
Rising atmospheric water vapor raises the ceiling on how extreme rainfall events can becomeTheir words
So the increase in PWAT is not just a weirdo statistic. It is a statement about the ceiling on the worst rain events we can face.
The Atmosphere Just Set a Water Vapor Recordtheclimatebrink.com
13 September
From one piece @fchollet on X 2 beliefs · x.com
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The only way to avoid extreme power concentration is to ensure we have multiple independent providers of frontier AI models, including open-source options.
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One of the most worrying risks linked to frontier AI is extreme power concentration.
8 September
4 September
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In fact, conventional risk management tells us that, when consequences are severe, low-probability extreme outcomes can determine the response.
3 September
28 August
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But the existence of old events tells us nothing about whether the odds are changing, and heat waves happened in 1900 too (just less frequently).
22 August
20 August
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the other extreme is if we're serious about exploring the universe and going to the stars, we are going to have to adapt ourselves to that environment. We're not going to export Earth with us everywhere we go.
17 August
11 August
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korrents.com
Misaligned AI behaviour will keep getting rarer and, at the same time, keep getting more extreme.Their words
my expectation is what we would see from then is that the rate of problematic behavior would decrease uh and would just keep decreasing and decrease at a pretty fast rate while simultaneously the worst things that the AIS would sometimes do would get more extreme, more egregious, and more scary.
28 July
22 July
From one piece Hot days, cold thermometers 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Third, raw daily data is the wrong tool for this question. Time of observation changes and the 1980s switch to MMTS sensors both suppress modern hot day counts relative to the past, and the raw and homogenized series diverge almost exactly when the instrument transition happened.
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A record set during an ecological disaster in one part of the country is not evidence that the whole country, much less the planet, was hotter.
1 July
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what I don't like about it I didn't like about it then and still don't like about it is it's not defensible. Nobody's going to say I'm not agile. Oh no, I prefer rigid development. Oh, I prefer inflexible development. No, everybody's going to say that they're agile, which extreme doesn't have that problem.
30 June
1 June
7 April
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Um I think another similarity is I mean, the core notions uh behind Agile and extreme programming are solid and good, but a huge snake oil industry appeared around it, the Agile industrial complex as I like to refer to it. Um and that will happen. That is happening with AI right now, and it's often hard to see the difference between where is the snake oil and where is the real stuff.
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So, I see a a big trend is the re-soloing of programming. Where a big part of extreme programming is creating a safe social environment for basically antisocial people. Not just asocial, antisocial. And the when I think about the degree of interaction on an XP team, people aren't talking to each other hours a day and happy to be doing so because it's set up for that to be a positive experience.
1 April
From one piece Scaling Uber with Thuan Pham (Uber's first CTO) 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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the philosophy we all operate at the time was no one should be blocking anybody else. No one can block anybody else.
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none of us wanted to go through that extreme but lots of time when you are under a lot of pressure and no time to react other than just to survive that scale that keep on coming at you, you have to make uh decision that increase uh speed and velocity because speed and velocity allow us to build quick enough to survive
22 February
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korrents.com
Third-party frontier AI auditing is urgently needed and would help prevent extreme concentration of power.Their words
I think frontier AI auditing (covering both safety and security) is both urgently needed and doable, and can help avoid extreme concentration of power, since it introduces external oversight into the decision-making of people with a "country of geniuses in a datacenter" at their disposal.
We're in Triage Mode for AI Policymilesbrundage.substack.com
17 February
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Like any addictive consumer product that routinely exposes users to graphic sex, extreme violence, and anonymous sexual predators, social media in its current form causes a variety of harms to people of all ages. But we allow adults (often defined as age 18) to make decisions that are bad for them.
24 January
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Extreme CashmereTheir words
Extreme Cashmere — Dutch brand making oversized, genderless cashmere knits. Their pieces are numbered instead of named.
3 November 2025
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korrents.com
In a world changing this fast it is better to have broad interests than to be an extreme specialist.Their words
In an environment of change, it’s better to be the hardy dandelion rather than the hothouse orchid.
What's Still Worth Learning in a World With AI?scotthyoung.com
26 September 2025
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If you go to look about how psychologists think about learning, there's nothing like uh imitation. Maybe there are some extreme cases where humans might do that or appear to do that, but there's no basic animal learning process called imitation.
19 August 2025
13 August 2025
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The biggest misunderstanding is somehow that a group of people or even just one person runs the entire Chinese economy. It is far from the reality. It is a very complex, large economy, and even if there is an extreme form of political centralization, the economy is totally decentralized.
31 July 2025
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I think the first point is the extreme loyalty of the people whom Genghis Khan chose. His kinsmen, as we said, had deserted him, his anda was a questionable relationship but all the others that he found were just common people, herders or hunters, very common, and they were loyal to him and never, ever revolted against him, never betrayed him.
1 June 2025
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The Selfish GeneTheir words
At one extreme, something you read can change your whole way of thinking. The Selfish Gene did this to me. It was like suddenly seeing the other interpretation of an ambiguous image: you can treat genes rather than organisms as the protagonists, and evolution becomes easier to understand when you do.
6 May 2025
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Unless you’re an extreme power user, asking AI questions every day is still a rounding error on your total electricity footprint.
What's the carbon footprint of using ChatGPT?hannahritchie.substack.com
28 October 2024
8 May 2024
1 January 2024
9 August 2022
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in 1985, um my colleagues and I came up with a description of how people actually make life-and-death decisions under extreme time pressure and certainty. And we called it the recognition prime decision model. And it's a blend of intuition plus analysis. And we found we studied firefighters. We found that most fire that accounted for almost 90% of the tough decisions firefighters made.
4 April 2022
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When you take venture funding, you sign up for a rocket ship ride that will either take you to the moon or to crash-land painfully back on earth. Those are the only two choices. And both rides tend to require heavy extraction of value from the customer.
Announcing RedwoodJS 1.0 and $1M Fundingtom.preston-werner.com
19 October 2021
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The short answer is that elevating the fulfilment of humanity’s supposed potential above all else could nontrivially increase the probability that actual people – those alive today and in the near future – suffer extreme harms, even death.
4 January 2017
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