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Their words
Even if everyone tries as hard as is plausible, Chain of Thought monitoring will probably never be easier than it is now and will get harder over time. In a year, chances are very high it will not be able to serve the function it is currently being asked to serve.
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8 September
4 September
From one piece The Worst Case Is Still on the Table 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Keeping the RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 runs as a plausible upper limit is particularly important given that recent research has emphasized the possibility that models are underestimating future warming.
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Their words
the temperatures produced under RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 are a reasonable upper bound on what the future climate might be.
1 September
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Their words
I am telling you this is inevitable, which means I am also saying that “banning open source,” or for that matter any other regulation, will not solve the problem. Given the inevitability of this outcome, I think it is in fact plausible to argue that we should want more open-weight models to maximally empower our self-defense.
31 August
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Their words
I think it’s entirely plausible that screens have a real negative effect on teenagers, but studies can’t find them because (a) the effects need not be dose-dependent (maybe two hours on your phone isn’t worse than one hour), and (b) given that everyone else is on social media, giving it up can have a negative effect.
30 July
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Their words
Um, and that's a very very useful general technique is you know inference time compute to perform search over plausible ways of solving the problem that can get much much higher performance or much more reliability in longunning agent flows.
13 March
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Their words
Um, and then you stack on 70 this year, 80 next year, growing to 100 by 2030. You're at like 700 EV tools by the end of the decade. Um, 700 EV tools, three and a half tools per gigawatt. um assuming it's all allocated to AI which it's not but three and a half tools per gigawatt gets you to 200 gigawatts worth of AI chips for the data centers to deploy
12 February
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Their words
microgpt “hallucinating” a name like “karia” is the same phenomenon as ChatGPT confidently stating a false fact.
9 February
1 January
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Their words
As with self driving cars, most of the early players in humanoid robots, will quietly shut up shop and disappear. Those that remain will pivot and redefine what they are doing, without renaming it, to something more achievable and with, finally, plausible business cases.
16 December 2025
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korrents.com
Whether the Fourth Amendment protects the terms you type into a search engine is a genuinely close question.Their words
Doctrinally, either answer is at least plausible; even under my own take of what Carpenter means, it's not an easy call.
3 December 2025
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Their words
the delusion comes from the reality that if you aggregated these breakeven revenues across companies, the market is not big enough to sustain all of them
31 October 2025
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Their words
To watch the universe. The easiest plausible answer is we are designed by the universe to watch itself and to comment on it in interesting ways.
16 September 2025
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Their words
The value of research is usually in telling you which of two plausible theories is true, or which advice from different, seemingly sensible approaches works best.
5 May 2025
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korrents.com
Wormholes are not yet an engineering problem, but they sit entirely within the realm of plausible physics.Their words
That’s going to be really telling. So I’m not saying it’s simply an engineering problem, but it’s all within the realm of plausible physics, I think.
25 May 2024
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Their words
So what he concluded was that he called remembering an imaginative construction, meaning that we don’t replay the past, we imagine how the past could have been by taking bits and pieces that come up in our heads.
24 February 2024
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Lovedsponsoredrcmnd.app
Theft of FireTheir words
Theft of Fire offers a plausible and realistic universe. The characters, Marcus Warnoc and Miranda Foxgrove, are not mere archetypes; they are complex, flawed, and deeply human. Their struggle to trust one another and overcome their own demons is a powerful allegory for the modern human condition.
1 October 2023
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korrents.com
Milton Friedman was the best economist among the plausible candidates for greatest economist of all time.Their words
Friedman has one big factor in his favor, namely that he is clearly the best economist on the list of contending names.
29 September 2020
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korrents.com
The Information Age could be a species-level shift comparable to the Industrial RevolutionTheir words
I find it plausible that the Information Age will be a species-level shift on par with the Industrial Revolution.
14 May 2020
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korrents.com
Demand for electricity will rise to absorb far more solar than is currently considered feasible.Their words
Add these up, and it’s plausible that solar’s contribution to the energy system could double or triple the amount currently considered feasible for solar to provide.
1 August 2016
5 January 2014
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