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18 September
11 September
10 September
8 September
24 August
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Their words
If you start from a low baseline of performance, you might get some positive boost. It's quite small, but you might get it. But if you are actually quite a high performer, then you risk getting worse. with this is called the inverse U-shaped curve.
3 August
From one piece Waymo Co-CEO Dmitri Dolgov: The Demo Is Only 1% Of The Work 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
However, if you are targeting full autonomy, and you're targeting superhuman, strongly superhuman performance, you find that weak sensing just leads to a safety curve that flattens out way too early.
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Their words
common failure mode is picking the tech that gives you the fastest early ramp, riding that steep curve, feeling like you're winning, projecting that, you know, steep slope into the future and feeling like the sky is the limit, and then hitting the plateau, and discovering that the technology path that you picked actually flattens out way before the performance that is required by your product.
29 July
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Their words
the other piece of advice I would have is try to identify what is the what is the exponential in the world that has both the steepest curve and will go the longest. And you know many decades ago this curve was was Moore's law and that probably was you know that was at the time like clearly the right thing to invest on. I think right now it's AI progress
20 July
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Their words
And what they found is there's kind of this um bell-shaped curve between energy availability and brain volume. And in general, brain volume, right, the more the better, right, we think. And so if you're chronically calorically restricted, your brain is smaller um because you just don't have the resources to invest in, you know, the structure um and to maintain it. At the other end, you see the same thing. So if you're chronically in a chronic state of chloric excess, you also tend to have a smaller brain on average.
13 July
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korrents.com
Happiness across a life is a curve rather than a decline, and its lowest point is midlife, not old age.Their words
there's some interesting work on you know happiness being more curve linear like midlife is actually some of the lowest levels of happiness and life satisfaction
26 June
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Their words
my claim is the proper way to evaluate the models now is you either have some kind of budget for the benchmark whether it's tokens or cost or time or whatever or you plot the performance as a function of the amount of test time compute that's going into the model
15 June
10 June
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Their words
when you have an exponentially growing curve, I think the way that an exponential curve feels is it's growing so quickly that the the kind of emotional feeling is it can't possibly keep going, right?
16 April
26 March
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Recommendsaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
GoProTheir words
If you want something better than your phone but still easy to use, get a GoPro. They're durable and take incredible photos and videos without a steep learning curve.
13 March
From one piece Dylan Patel — The single biggest bottleneck to scaling AI compute 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
well the model the compute efficiency gains you get from research are so large you actually want most of your compute to go to research not to development because you know all these researchers are generating new ideas trying them out testing them and continuing to march along this and push the prao optimal curve of scaling laws further and further and further
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Their words
They could release claw slow mode and have an increase in tokens per dollar by a significant amount. Um they could probably like reduce the price of Opus 46 by you know 4x 5x and reduce the speed by another by maybe just like 2x like the curve on inference throughput versus speed is there already just on hm um and yet they don't um because no one actually wants to use a slow model
11 March
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Their words
But, I can tell you that there are at least two more cycles left in this, and that means they will be at least 16 times smarter than they are today, and that is going to cause all of knowledge work to be subsumed by this stuff.
27 February
25 January
From one piece The surprising advice from a founder who built 2 unicorns | Jason Cohen (WP Engine) 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
So what usually h what often happens is you raise prices and signups don't change. When I say signups, I mean the like signups per month, you know, the rate at sign or signups go up. This happens all the time.
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Their words
But that's not what happens. What happens is it starts with an S-curve and then it starts sagging. Its butt starts sagging down. So, I wrote an article about this called the elephant curve, which is what I named it, right?
17 October 2025
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Their words
I do, but it's business as usual because we're we're in an intelligence explosion already and have been for decades. And when you look at GDP, it's basically the GDP curve that is an exponential weighted sum over so many aspects of the industry. Everything is gradually being automated has been for hundreds of years.
24 June 2025
17 June 2025
3 February 2025
From one piece DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
The big picture is that I don't think it's going to be a cliff. I think a really good example of how growth changes is when Meta added stories. So Snapchat was on an exponential, they added stories, it flatlined.
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Their words
We know that a lot of the American companies are very invested in safety, and that is the central culture of a place like Anthropic. And I think Anthropic sounds like a wonderful place to work, but if safety is your number one goal, it takes way longer to get artifacts out.
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Their words
And the history of NLP and language processing instruction, tuning and tasks per language model used to be like one language model did one task, and then in the instruction tuning literature, there's this point where you start adding more and more tasks together where it just starts to generalize to every task. And we don't know where on this curve we are.
2 September 2024
9 February 2024
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Their words
If you zoom out on a story of technology, you usually see a big exponential curve. But if you look at the curve up close, you see that it's wavy, made of S-curves.
All My Thoughts After 40 Hours in the Vision Prowaitbutwhy.com
6 November 2023
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Their words
It is fair to say that, while economists expected the short end of the yield curve to reflect the higher rates needed to win the fight against inflation, the sharply steeper long end of the yield curve in the last few months has come as a surprise. I shall freely admit that I did not predict it.
6 November 2022
26 April 2022
24 August 2020
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