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Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.

• x.comLong-term Treasuries now have a negative total return going back to the start of 2015 It's more than a lost decade for long bonds (and even worse after inflation)

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• Blog5% Bond Yields

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Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.

• Animal Spirits: How to Talk To Your Clients About Ray Dalio

  On today's show we discuss AI human extinction fears, the biggest AI risks, why things go viral, why the stock market is so confusing right now, how to think about bearish hedge fund managers, why bonds offer a good dea…

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Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

• Let me stay away from personal remarks. As you kindly invited me to do so, I am happy to continue our exchange. Let me start by reproducing and then commenting on three remarks you make in your two recent tweets. “I know full well what justified the use of OATi in 1998, namely a lower interest rate since the investor takes on less risk. Except that today, with the international context and climate disruption making prices more volatile, the cost of these indexed bonds is rising.” My humble view: More volatile inflation makes inflation protected bonds more, not less attractive. “As such, I sta…
  Quoting@ericcoquerelPas de souci pour échanger des arguments avec vous @ojblanchard1 mais un tout petit peu moins de condescendance dans l’échange ne serait pas de trop 🔽. Le résultat des politiques économiques que vous avez soutenues depuis des années devrait, je pense, vous amener à un peu plus d’humilité. Je sais…

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Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

• i was going to write something, but Quentin beat me to it... Let me put it another way, so that Chairman Coquerel @ericcoquerel understands and corrects his statement. When a state issues nominal bonds (bonds that pay in euros), the real value of interest payments varies with inflation, creating risk for investors. So they require a higher interest rate to compensate for the risk. In issuing inflation protected bonds, the state eliminates the risk and thus is able to get a lower rate. This decreases the burden of the debt. This is good. Always happy to help the Chair of the Finance Committee…
  Quoting@QuentinVandewe2Est-ce que LFI organise un concours Lépine pour la théorie du complot la plus idiote sur la dette ? Après la Banque de France qui revendrait la dette en secret, Mélenchon découvre que l'État « vient de proposer de nouveau des titres indexés sur le capital et des intérêts compensant l'inflation ». U…

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Organizational psychologist and professor at the Wharton School. Author of Give and Take, Originals, Think Again and Hidden Potential, host of the Re:Thinking podcast, and writer of the GRANTED newsletter.

• Listening carefully doesn't just avoid misunderstandings. It also bolsters bonds during arguments. 5 studies: Even if people don’t find common ground, when they feel heard, they leave feeling more connected, capable, and optimistic. Agreement is not a prerequisite for respect.

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Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

• Good question, even if framed too aggressively. But the answer is no. During QE, given the zero lower bound that prevented further decreases in policy rates, the ECB bought long maturity national bonds, including those of France, so as to decrease long-term interest rates and help countries, including France. Now, as we are away from the lower bound, there are few reasons to keep as many of them. As these are sold (or not rolled over at maturity) through QT, this indeed likely increases long rates a bit and makes it harder for France to adjust. If selling these bonds turns out to be strongly…
  Quoting@RobianoAntoineLe raisonnement paraît juste mais - L'annulation de la dette détenue retirerait à la BCE l'une de ces nombreuses sources de pouvoir exorbitant, celui de revendre des titres de dette publique d'un Etat pour contraindre politiquement ce dernier ?

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Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.

• I know everyone hates bonds right now b/c inflation, govt debt, etc But if you own a bond index fund that tracks the Agg you're getting 5.2% avg yield to maturity right now Investors would have killed for yields this high at any point in the past 15 years or so

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Founded Bridgewater Associates in 1975 and led it until stepping back from control in 2022. Author of Principles, The Changing World Order and How Countries Go Broke; publishes economic analysis at economicprinciples.org.

• This happens as long-term rates rise relative to short-term rates. Though they try to hold short rates down, long rates are climbing, a trend we are already seeing. We are also seeing a weakening dollar and movements in gold. As rates rise, it starts to affect the stock market. With bonds dropping and stocks rising, the prospective returns of stocks are now low compared to bonds, translating into broader stock market pressure. This classic dynamic creates a stagflationary environment that the Federal Reserve struggles to manage. With current stagflation, the Fed wrestles with whether to tight…

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Co-founder and chief investment officer of Cambria Investment Management. He has written several books on quantitative asset allocation, blogs at Meb Faber Research and hosts The Meb Faber Show.

• Real current drawdowns in fixed income: TIP 19% T-bills 20% AGG 25% LQD 27% IEF 32% TLT 55% Zeros 😱😱 If you respond yEs BUT i iNveSt in InIDVIDual BonDs so I don't have this problem you're going to get blocked. via

  totalrealreturns.com

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• .@AB_insights Inigo Fraser Jenkins on why 60/40's diversification is broken: “If we're talking about long duration government bonds, I think it's likely they will not perform the diversifying role that they've performed historically.” “This post 2022 experience of a positive correlation of stock and bond returns actually looks more normal.” Listen: https://t.co/mfnaUo1DNT Watch:

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Economist and Nobel laureate. Wrote a New York Times column for 25 years until December 2024 and now publishes several times a week on Substack.

• Bessent and the Bonds

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Co-founder and chief investment officer of Cambria Investment Management. He has written several books on quantitative asset allocation, blogs at Meb Faber Research and hosts The Meb Faber Show.

• Cat bonds overview... via @MorningstarInc

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Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.

• Animal Spirits: Everywhere Millionaires The bull market in wealth The next financial crisis A buying opportunity in bonds? AI is crowding out bonds & construction spending The American Dream is still alive Is college still worth the cost?

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Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

• It is indeed nitpicking, and the effect is a net decrease in demand, and a decrease in reserves. But, yes, I should have been more precise. The ECB indeed not selling, it is letting bonds mature and not buying new ones: this leads to a steady decline in ECB bond holdings and in reserves by the ECB. It intends to do so so long as banks do not come back to hold more reserves. The plan is that, when banks come back, this will determine the amount and the size of the balance sheet. Bottom line. The ECB is doing this for reasons which have nothing to do with fiscal policy. And this has nothing to…
  Quoting@itsthemchasers@kebabroyal_ @ojblanchard1 But sales would increase the float in times of higher issuance. His statement is simply wrong.

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• Separate and interesting discussion. True, the ECB (BDF) is slowly reducing its holdings of sovereign bonds, including French bonds (this is called QT, quantitative tightening). By selling those bonds, it decreases their price (not very much, but a bit) and thus increases the interest rate paid by the governments of the euro zone. This indeed makes things a bit harder for the government, who now pay more on their debt. Is the ECB doing this to spite governments, or to induce them to adjust? Emphatically not. It is doing this because it wants to reduce reserves (which is what happens when it s…
  Quoting@StefPalomba@ojblanchard1 1/ la BdF fait partie de l’Etat donc 2/ l’histoire ne tient pas sauf à imaginer que Pierre soit le gouv, 3/ si Paul, dont ce n’est pas le rôle, veut contrer la politique de Pierre, il remet les titres sur le marché, le taux d’intérêt grimpe, 4/ congeler a donc du sens pour Pierre

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Economic historian at Columbia; writes Chartbook on economics, geopolitics and history, and wrote Crashed and The Deluge.

• Top Links 1217 Russian gold through Hong Kong. The birth of repo out of the spirit of the Liberty Bonds. Anger in politics & the failed metrication of the USA.

  Great links, images, and reading from Chartbook Newsletter by Adam Tooze

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Economist; writes In My Tribe, and wrote The Three Languages of Politics.

• Economics Links, 9/3/2026

  The WSJ on mortgage defaults; A committee to advise the Fed on inflation; Andreas Steno Larsen on the rickety market for long-term U.S. bonds; Gad Levanon on unemployment among young college grads

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Organizational psychologist and professor at the Wharton School. Author of Give and Take, Originals, Think Again and Hidden Potential, host of the Re:Thinking podcast, and writer of the GRANTED newsletter.

• What I Got Wrong About Connection

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