The winner would then be the AIs, not us. That is not to say that the China issue is not real, hence the export controls and attempted international agreement.
it almost gives a new founder an advantage over a multi-time successful founder because we have too much rope to hang ourselves. It's too easy to raise money and recruit teams against a big vision before we've gotten to product market fit.
It's like everyone is just saying mantras to themselves cuz the root thing that's going on here is we are experiencing a moment of great change. Everyone is very nervous about what that means for their own position in it. a defense mechanism is to confidently assert a future in which you're a winner. And that's almost what every single prediction that you see is happening.
2025 is where I (and I think the rest of the industry also) first started to internalize the "shape" of LLM intelligence in a more intuitive sense. We're not "evolving/growing animals", we are "summoning ghosts".
The Broken Earth Trilogy by NK Jemison (The Fifth Season, The Obelisk Gate, The Stone Sky): Triple-Hugo winner. Stunning world-building. Really fun to escape into a series—haven't done that in years.
But they didn’t believe in ghosts, they took them for granted. And they didn’t believe in the gods, they took them for granted. This is a different mechanism, because nobody here in the world today takes those things for granted, just the opposite.
so I can make the argument that oh my god uh if you're a model company you may be you may have a winner's curse you may have done all the hard work done unbelievable innovation except it's kind of like one copy uh away from that being commoditized
we're not doing training by evolution. Uh we're doing training by basically imitation of humans and the data that they've put on the internet. And so you end up with these like sort of ethereal spirit entities because they're fully digital and they're kind of like mimicking humans.
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