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Tyler Cipriani
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Tariff uncertainty led me to purchase a keyboard shaped like a butterfly. This is what is known as the butterfly effect.
butterfly tariff purchase
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16 September
Economics professor at George Mason University and author of The Myth of the Rational Voter, Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids, The Case Against Education and Open Borders. Writes Bet On It.
Even a $100k annual tariff would probably mean millions of immigrants per year. Quoting @DanielDiMartino Actually yes it would be great to just admit people based on an immigration tariff instead of the current system. immigration Related
13 September
Co-founder of Modem and a founding engineer at Sentry, where he went on to be VP of Engineering. Co-author of Third-party JavaScript, and co-host of the State of Agentic Coding podcast with Armin Ronacher.
“the US must beat China to control AI for global safety” is deeply unconvincing abroad: - US models are the ones being caught doing bad things - the US govt has once already cut off foreign access to models - they also regularly threaten to annex and punitively tariff allies Quoting @mitsuhiko This is the type of post I might regret later, but I really had an urge to rant about the current discourse around pacing the frontier. China Related
25 June
Economist; Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, and Chairman of the US Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2017.
PCE inflation came in high. And the details were even more worrying than the headline as the risk of inflation mounting outside the tariff/Iran affected sectors. Core PCE annual rate: 1 month: 3.9% 3 months: 3.5% 6 months: 4.1% 12 months: 3.4% inflation Related
24 February
Economist and Nobel laureate. Wrote a New York Times column for 25 years until December 2024 and now publishes several times a week on Substack.
12 February
Engineer writing about the physical economy — oil and gas, manufacturing, batteries, drones and what it costs to build things.
9 February
Author of The Simple Path to Wealth and of the jlcollinsnh.com stock series on index-fund investing.
13 August 2025
Economist specialising in China's economy, international macroeconomics and global trade, and author of The New China Playbook.
China America
Their words
The trade deficits have widened since Trump, right? They haven’t closed the imbalance with China and with the rest of the world because ultimately the US saves less than it invests. And that’s a macrophenomenon. It’s not a trade phenomenon
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youtube.com
13 June 2025
Pen name of the Canadian-American writer behind mrmoneymustache.com, a blog on frugality, early retirement and index-fund investing that has run since 2011.
x.com New blog post! How to Navigate the Tariff Circus 🤡 (see link in reply to this post) Summary: as @dollarsanddata would say, Just Keep Buying! The USA has a long history of lurching into dire-sounding situations, only to emerge surprisingly strong, surprisingly soon, on the other side. And this is just another one of those dramas from our never-boring homeland. Related
Blog How to Navigate the Tariff Circus Quite accidentally, it looks like we timed our last talk about the stock market pretty darned well. Back in February 2025, the market put the perfect cap on a multi year climb before stepping onto the wild roller coaste…
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30 May 2025
Zurich-based value investor who ran the Aquamarine Fund from 1997 to 2025 and wrote The Education of a Value Investor. He hosts the VALUEx gathering in Klosters and publishes a podcast and newsletter.
7 April 2025
Senior economist at the Foundation for American Innovation; writes Second Best, and was the Niskanen Center's director of social policy before that.
6 April 2025
Founder of the toy manufacturer Viahart; writes about manufacturing, importing and why bringing production back to America is harder than it sounds.
Their words
The tariffs have frozen business activity because no one wants to take a big risk dependent on a policy that may change next week.
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molsonhart.com
31 March 2025
Energy and decarbonisation analyst; publishes an annual chart deck on the state of the transition, and was chief content officer at BloombergNEF.
Tariff Stochasticity Examining how unpredictable tariff policies create chaos for energy companies, from confused utility regulators to Federal Reserve uncertainty reports hitting 55-year highs. The stochastic nature of tariffs clashes with…
energy interest rates Related
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