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How well did experts and laypeople forecast the size of the COVID-19 pandemic?
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11 September
7 August
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Their words
I believe current techniques are 4-6 orders of magnitude away from optimality in terms of data efficiency and test-time compute efficiency. But far future AI will be near-optimal.
7 July
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korrents.com
Climate models are underestimating how intense heatwaves become at a given level of global warming.Their words
the temperatures seen in France show that climate models continue to underpredict the magnitude of heatwaves for a particular level of global warming.
1 June
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Their words
If AI-driven labor displacement ends up being large in magnitude and permanently drives down the demand for labor, it will likely be necessary to go beyond mere incentive programs to long-term income support for a significant fraction of the labor force.
15 April
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Their words
Pick your ASIC team where you can say I can bet the farm of I can bet my entire business that you will be here for me every single year. Your cost, your token cost will decrease by an order of magnitude every single year. I can count on it like I can count on the clock.
7 April
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Their words
Well, nothing has hit with the magnitude of AI. That's I mean, this is a a whole size difference from anything that we've faced before.
23 March
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Their words
You know, our computer price is going up, but our token generation effectiveness is going up so much faster that token cost is coming down. It's just coming down an order of magnitude every year.
13 March
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Their words
and even if you take a generous interpretation of 128 * 8 gig transfers, you're at 128 gigabytes a second for the same shoreline versus 2 and a half terabytes a second. There's a there's an order of magnitude difference in bandwidth per edge area.
25 January
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Their words
It's just that it caps this price and this value that is they perceive that you do. Whereas if you deliver more of the value that they already value, it's I don't want to say uncapped completely, but like the cap is maybe an order of magnitude higher than saving.
1 January
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Their words
With AI, he's trying he's targeting 3 to five million in revenue per rep. 3 to 5 million. Honestly, if this was three or four years ago for a similar company, it would be 3 to 500K. That's an order of magnitude more efficiency.
30 April 2025
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Their words
The biggest limitation that's built up over time is the single-threaded nature of game simulation in Unreal Engine. We run a single-threaded simulation. If you have a 16 core CPU, we're using one core for game simulation and running with the complicated game logic because single-threaded programming is orders of magnitude easier than multi-threaded programming.
16 March 2025
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Their words
"Direction is more important than magnitude"-it's usually better to have a lower-velocity project that works on the right things, than a higher-velocity one that's pointed at the wrong goal.
23 December 2023
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The cost to discover and develop a drug today is orders of magnitude higher than in the 1950s. Despite this, the probability that a drug entering clinical trials will eventually reach the market has hardly improved in the intervening years.
5 September 2023
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Their words
You can drive about 150 times as far from a solar-powered electric car compared to using corn bioethanol.
6 June 2023
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an acre of solar panels generates as much energy as 100 acres of corn grown for ethanol.
A Climate Killer Disguised as a Climate Solutionmichaelgrunwald.substack.com
8 January 2023
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Their words
Taken together, there is an argument to be made that AVs should be safer than human drivers by about a factor of 10 (being a nice round order of magnitude number) to leave engineering margin for the above considerations.
22 August 2019
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