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Tyler Cowen Podcast
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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18 September
16 September
14 September
7 September
3 September
1 September
31 August
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Their words
And that's why we say motivation is 90% of the problem or the solution because you have to be able to motivate the person to engage with these personalized lessons to learn it.
26 August
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Their words
Then there's another possibility which is that it actually already has worked but just the productivity boost isn't as big as would be obvious if people got 10% more productive. That would still be pretty impressive because it's hard to get a 10% across the board uplift.
11 August
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korrents.com
There is roughly a 35 to 40 percent chance of something we would recognise as an AI takeover by 2040.Their words
By 2040 um let's see uh maybe around 35 or 40%.
10 August
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Their words
We did the the numbers and the numbers are more like 0.3%. We scanned all 67,000. We shipped the we shipped the paper. But you know a correction never travels as far as a scare.
2 August
From one piece This CPO regrets that product management exists | Tom Verrilli (CPO of Whatnot) 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
People who manage product managers should still spend almost all of their own time doing individual contributor work.Their words
There's like I think four or five people across the team who manage other PMs. All of them would spend 90 plus percent of their time doing IC work. I'm still probably 50% of my time doing IC work personally.
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Their words
most of commerce in America isn't actually high intent. Like how many years are we into e-commerce now? Like 30 years into e-commerce and e-commerce has never exceeded 20% of retail spend in America.
30 July
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Their words
And if they're completely failing, that's probably a good sign. If they're kind of able to do some of it but not very well, that's maybe not a great sign because that's a probably a a sign that the capability is starting to be present in those models and with more training data or larger scale models or or whatever it's likely to get better. So um you know look for something where the model succeeds 0% or 1% of the time not not 20%.
29 July
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Their words
when you start talking about like most interesting domain problems, you have to pull in so much context that basically even writing what the function is supposed to do becomes a nightmare. The imperative program you write that will get correct 99% of the time is probably good enough to use in almost all cases.
20 July
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Their words
We kind of expect that we can go to work and we can work really hard for eight hours straight during the day, but like the brain doesn't really work like that.
15 July
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Their words
you can slow way down and read every PR and read every line of code. Uh, and then you're only going to really get modest benefits from AI because that becomes I I think you should expect maybe 30 to 50% lift in productivity is kind of what I see when we go into teams
13 July
From one piece How to Improve Your Memory & Cognitive Function at Any Age | Dr. Alan Castel 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
And actually, after the age of 40, most people feel about 20% younger than their actual age.
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Their words
But in the walking group the group that was randomly assigned to walk three four times a week for 40 minutes compared to a stretching group who's still engaging in exercise but not cardiovascular exercise. The walking group their you know hippocamp is actually increased in volume by 1%. So you're changing the the brain, but you're also changing the behavior. Their memory was much better a year later.
30 June
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Their words
It becomes insufferable like as a mathematician because you you would basically be like I'm every single time I see one of these I kind of don't know if it's worth my time even if 99 out of 100 of them are right.
19 June
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korrents.com
Getting feedback on a flaw early saves far more effort than discovering it after building much more on top of it.Their words
I would rather learn a chapter is broken now, from you, than after I've built ninety more on top of it.
16 June
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Their words
this is a period in which backwards is forwards, which is to say this is not a period that like us thinks of the future as where potential is and humanity might get better and better over time. The potential of humanity is recapturing Rome.
9 June
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Their words
Sanctions are like economic chemotherapy. What you're doing is presenting preventing one or two percent growth per annum even with leaky sanctions, right?
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Their words
the whole industry is is kind of stuck in this world where they make a lot of money because it is this way. But there's zero reason why it should cost 2 or 3%. Just zero.
25 May
13 May
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Their words
And quite honestly, language design is 90% the same and 10% new for for pretty much every language. Every language you build still has to have a compiler. Compiler is still built in a pretty much the same way.
8 May
From one piece David Reich – Bronze Age shock, the Neanderthal puzzle, & the sudden spread of farming 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
So we're talking about strong measurable selection coefficients on the order of half a percent or more in this study and all of those are going to work in small populations or large populations. It's not going to be affected by the population size.
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Their words
but it is the tracer dye, right? Like it tracks into European languages and important aspects of Indo-European culture are coming through Yamnaya.
6 May
7 April
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Their words
People will sometimes talk about um you know, a theory of everything as a potential goal for for physics. And and then there's this presumption somehow that physics is done once you get there. And of course, this is this is not true at all if you think about computer science.
20 March
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Their words
Uh but whenever we do a systematic study, um any given problem, an AI tool has a success rate of maybe 1 or 2%. Uh it's just that it's just that they can apply at scale and and you just pick the winners, it looks great.
28 February
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Their words
The current success rate for a drug entering clinical trials is only about ten percent, meaning 90 percent of all drugs fail.
25 January
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Their words
there should be no way to get a big company like a public SAS company Unless NR is greater than 100, like otherwise cancellation should just win. And that is in fact the case.
1 January
From one piece We replaced our sales team with 20 AI agents—here's what happened next | Jason Lemkin (SaaStr) 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
The email-based sales development rep will be ninety percent displaced by AI within a year.Their words
The emailbased cadence SDR will be 90% displaced by AI next year.
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Their words
So, add all that up, 5%. In many categories, we're north of 50% in market. So, that just totally changes.
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
The Fall of Rome and the End of CivilizationTheir words
The genius of this work is its interdisciplinary scope.
31 October 2025
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Their words
I also think that they’ve done the sort of first 90% of the work to sound human, 95% possibly in some areas. The last 5% is going to end up being about 95% of the work.
16 October 2025
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Their words
Each delayed year costs approximately 10% of life's easiest risk-taking period.
5 October 2025
From one piece Finding hidden growth opportunities in your product | Albert Cheng (Duolingo, Grammarly, Chess.com) 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I think when you have your D1 retention somewhere around like the 30 or 40% mark, like that's quite solid, I think, for for a consumer app.
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Their words
I mean in my experience the typical win rate and I hate to use that term for experiments is is often something like 30 to 50%. Like usually you're not actually get like you're trying a bunch of things a lot of hypotheses turn out not to be true. you know, consumer products are very unpredictable like that.
30 September 2025
From one piece Pavel Durov: Telegram, Freedom, Censorship, Money, Power & Human Nature | Lex Fridman Podcast #482 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Because today, if you take France for example which is a beautiful country with a lot of talented people, but public expenses are 58% of the country's GDP, it's maybe as much more than in the latest stage of the Soviet Union.
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Their words
So premium is one source of our revenue. We also have ads, but they're context-based, not targeted. Of course, we leave probably 80% of value on the table because we're not ready to engage in all this practices, exploiting personal data.
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Their words
This is something I practice every day. I read some piece of news and I ask myself, "Who benefits from me reading this?" Then you can end up coming to this conclusion that maybe 95% of things we read in the news have been written and published because somebody wanted you to buy some product, support some political cause, fight some war, donate some money.
21 September 2025
From one piece From managing people to managing AI: The leadership skills everyone needs now | Julie Zhuo 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
And I am a very big believer that every strength is its own weakness and every weakness is a strength. There's no such thing as you're going to somehow, you know, get every dimension to be 100%.
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Their words
Because it's like okay we got these numbers and the numbers go up. It's like no, the fact that you still have to choose which things you look at is an art, not a science. And your interpretation of if the number went up 5%, is that good? Is that not good? Is also an interpretation and is an is an art, not a science.
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Their words
But feedback really in my mind ideally should be like a daily practice because the thing that matters for us in the long run as a team is how quickly are we getting better. So a team that just gets 1% better every week compared to a team that gets 1% better a month is even if they start off at a much lower baseline is going to outperform in a very short amount of time the team that doesn't get better.
2 September 2025
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Their words
It's like something around 10% give or take three or four percent of people depending on the survey are using this say they're using this every day. Another sort of 15 to 20% of people say they're using it every week.
18 August 2025
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korrents.com
AI agents can already resolve more than eighty per cent of a company's incoming customer issues.Their words
One of the first was we had a bet as to what percent of kind of all incoming customer issues one of our agents could resolve. And Brett was maybe the pessimist and realist favorably charitably. And I bet we'd exceed 80% by the end of the year and we did.
14 June 2025
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Their words
If something holds 99.99% of the time, that's good enough for most things. But mathematicians are one of the few people who really care about whether really 100% of all situations are covered by it.
5 June 2025
From one piece Sundar Pichai: CEO of Google and Alphabet | Lex Fridman Podcast #471 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
But the most important metric, and we carefully measure it is, like, how much has our engineering velocity increased as a company due to AI, right? It's tough measure, and we rigorously try to measure it, and our estimates are that number is now at 10%, right?
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Their words
Number three, even if you end up quite not accomplishing what you set out to do and you end up doing 60, 80% of it, it'll end up being a terrific success. So that's the advice I would give people, right? I think it's just aiming for big ideas, has all these advantages
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korrents.com
A meeting that wastes everyone's time is a meetings problem, not a communication problem.Their words
I personally hate meetings because a significant percent of meetings when done poorly don’t serve a clear purpose. But that’s a meeting problem, that’s not a communication problem.
28 May 2025
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Their words
Drug offenders never accounted for a particularly large fraction of the U.S. prison population, peaking at about 22 percent of state prisoners in 1990.
What Was The War on Drugs? Part Vthecausalfallacy.substack.com
12 May 2025
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Their words
Conversational UIs are great at quickly getting to the first 70%, but suck at offering easy controls over narrower areas for iteration.
17 April 2025
23 March 2025
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Their words
What he found is that the companies that struggled to grow almost always had less than 40% very disappointed. Whereas the companies that grew the fastest almost always had more than 40% very disappointed. And this question, this metric is way more predictive of success than something for example like net promoter score.
19 January 2025
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Their words
Growth team can optimize. Growth can maybe lift it by 10, 15% maybe that's enough for you even that like is on the upper end of what growth team would be able to do if there is a slow down trajectory
7 May 2024
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