We’re used to using price as an indicator of quality, so our instinct says that the $20,000 surgery in Switzerland is better than the $2000 surgery in India, but the rule of volume disagrees.
I think it's pretty likely that these agents would have just launched a similarly ambitious program on the basis of this like different model of how their evaluation worked because it seemed like they got the idea for all their research projects from reading this paper rather than some kind of instinct from training.
you know Elon buying Twitter is like the beginning of us being able to speak our minds and for disagreeing to not be illegal. That's a big deal. We should all thank Elon for that.
the number of people who present incredibly well, and then you give them a prompt and some data and ask them to come back with a PRD on something, and then we make them verbally defend it, how quickly the thinking decays from folks who are good at the theater, but not the specifics, uh is kind of really telling, I think.
I mean, obviously aviation was was a pretty big deal, but uh I I I don't think it was sort of quite the um the sociological rewriting that some of the you know excitable proponents at the time imagined. So I am you know it's it's hard to predict anything especially the future but I would I would take the under on this being the last couple of years to get a company going.
But yeah, just like it's it's I've never met a Stripe customer and thought that's boring. Um so so it's actually the business as a whole has been the opposite of uh of the Schlep Blindness um instinct.
Or the perfect way to go through feedback and leveling and compensation. But every time we saw that and we added more process, we spent more time without getting better outcomes.
How can you make learning kind of uncomfortable, but that you'll remember things better? And it goes against a lot of our intuitions. A lot of teachers will want to say, how can we make learning easier? And I think that's probably the first problem is you don't want it to be easy.
Uh but I don't think it's easy but I do think it's something you would have to do in order to uh reward the gawwa like instinct rather than just rewarding have you solved a problem.
we have these instincts like in our gut, these human level instincts that are pretty much always right. And then we put these ideas on top of the instincts that are usually wrong. And my rule of thumb is your instincts are right 95% of the time.
you've gone through so much to be here. You owe it to yourself to bet on your instinct. You owe it to yourself to lose because of yourself. It's your right to be wrong. You, as a founder, owe it to yourself to control your own destiny and take half the valuation if it's all of the control. And it means you have the right to do it your way.
I think great products in the consumer world speak to us on some deep level. They they speak to some human instinct or need that we've been feeling and it's been unexpressed or unmet. When we first experience that, there's something magical to it that it could be an unlock. And lots of times it's it's where we're most cynical that we're ready for the most magic.
And this is basically the reason why LSD at one point became illegal, because it did not get the chance. Stoll still wanted to put it on the market, but Sidney Gottlieb, the head of MKULTRA, he really didn't want LSD to be on the market. He didn't want it because he thought it's not good or dangerous for anybody, he just wanted to control LSD.
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