Nathan Lambert
Everything, newest first — across every channel. Their profile →
Hiding
20 September
19 September
From one piece Why I still haven’t bought into true RSI 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
lossy self-improvement remains my baseline on the trajectory of progress, and the increased discussion of extinction risk seems very misplaced
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Their words
RSI is poised to make modern LLMs vastly cheaper. Trends that have shown LLMs get exponentially cheaper at a given intelligence are likely to accelerate.
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korrents.com
AI scaling laws require exponentially more compute and resources to produce only linear gains in model intelligence.Their words
all of our scaling laws show that you need exponential compute and resources to make linear improvements in intelligence.
18 September
13 September
11 September
- Bluesky
- GitHubReleaserlhf-book book/v0.12 — Textbook on reinforcement learning from human feedback
Release notes
From one piece Open-Source AI & Open Models Reading List 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Distillation - the process of training on output tokens from another model - is the single most eventful debate around open models in 2026.
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korrents.com
Since 2024, the leading open-weight AI models have come from Chinese labs rather than American ones.Their words
The leading open models have all come from Chinese labs since ~2024.
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korrents.com
The performance gap between open and closed AI models has narrowed to roughly 4-6 months.Their words
The open-closed model gap has reduced in recent years, and is now at roughly 4-6 months.
10 September
From one piece One resignation turned the embers of AI fear into a wildfire 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Many frontier lab employees, especially at Anthropic, are out of touch and this will impact their forecasting and/or descriptions of current AI events.
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Their words
AI has always been very jagged, and we are making models which are superhuman goal-seekers at math and software engineering, but they have massive limitations on intuitions, creativity, and other types of reasoning that humans are strong at.
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Their words
I put the probability of complete extinction as being so low it isn't worth discussing, but the probabilities of AI caused disasters - e.g. cyber attacks on critical infrastructure or bio-risks - as being worth debating.
9 September
From one piece When will average people feel AI’s impact? 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Even after decades of AI-driven progress, most people's daily material lives will look largely unchanged.Their words
It feels very likely in 50 years that the average American's day to day life looks very similar.
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Their words
For knowledge work, which is roughly half of the U.S. economy, AI is as fundamental as electricity (or quickly will be so, with rapid improvements to agents in the next 18 months).
8 September
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korrents.com
Frontier Chinese AI labs are moving toward more restrictive licensing terms for their open models.Their words
Chinese model makers at the frontier, however, are becoming more restrictive
24 August
21 August
17 August
From one piece Teaching Everyone to Fish for Tokens 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Releasing free access to AI intelligence is one of the strongest available business strategies.Their words
releasing access to intelligence is one of the strongest business strategies available.
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korrents.com
Open-source AI's future is uncertain because building frontier models is extremely capital-intensive.Their words
Open-source AI has a tricky future, as building the best models is extremely capital intensive.
14 August
From one piece GLM-5.3: How Chinese labs keep stride with the frontier 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
At the end of the day, this type of safety barely matters when true open-weights are coming.
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korrents.com
The pace at which dangerous AI capabilities spread is set by the least cautious developer, not the most careful one.Their words
The capability diffusion is determined by the lowest common denominator.
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Their words
It is very, very likely that OpenAI and Anthropic have far better internal models than Z.ai and Moonshot AI.
12 August
From one piece I wrote an AI textbook — how long until AI can do it better? 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
So, in 2-5 years I still expect the best textbooks to be heavily crafted by the human hand.
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Their words
Something intertwined with this story, which I stumbled upon when thinking about agents, is how your pace of understanding won't increase by using agents.
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Their words
Models being stagnant in long-form, non-fiction writing should be alarming to those reliant on models autonomously solving grand, open science problems in the near future.
9 August
20 July
12 July
19 June
Nothing matches.
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