Lyn Alden
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15 October
14 October
13 October
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11 October
9 October
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3 October
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28 September
26 September
15 July
From one piece An Alternative to Private Equity: Introducing ORANGE JUICE 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Privately held businesses in the United States are collectively worth trillions of dollars, and demographically speaking, they have an aging set of owners who are seeking liquidity or diversification as they explore how to pass on what they've built.
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Their words
PE funds optimize for a 4-7 flip and typically resort to aggressive cost-cutting and near-term optimization at the cost of the "soul" of the business or what made it successful in the first place.
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korrents.com
Businesses acquired by private equity funds fail more often than average because of the leverage loaded onto them.Their words
Businesses that emerge out of PE funds have higher failure rates than average, thanks to being saddled with a lot of leverage.
13 March
11 March
From one piece Fractional Reserve Banking 101 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
There were booms and busts, and cumulative price inflation was zero, and the United States went from a new-world emerging backwater in the late 1700s to being the world's largest economy by the late 1800s.
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Their words
Another way of putting it is that a collection of dozens of solvent well-run banks can still be broken as a group if they become greatly overleveraged compared to how many depositors want their money back at once.
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korrents.com
Fractional reserve banks are structurally interconnected and unstable in a way most other industries are not.Their words
That's due to the fractional reserve structure of banks. They're unstable and reliant on each other by design, more closely than companies in most other industries.
1 December 2025
From one piece Why Most Cryptocurrencies Won’t Accrue Value 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Decentralized finance mainly converts custodial risk into technical risk rather than eliminating risk altogether.Their words
While there is some utility value in DeFi, it basically lets users transform custodial risk into technical risk (e.g. bridge protocol hacks), which is not a free lunch.
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korrents.com
Bitcoin's roughly $2 trillion market capitalization is still early relative to its long-term adoption potential.Their words
In my view, Bitcoin at a ~$2 trillion market capitalization remains rather early.
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Their words
Utility protocols face heavy competition, and thus their value trends toward their marginal cost of operation.
6 July 2025
From one piece The Rise of Bitcoin Stocks and Bonds 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Bitcoin is not going to catch on as a charity. In order for spending it to catch on persistently at scale (i.e. not just billions of dollar-equivalents in annual global medium-of-exchange volume, but trillions), it has to solve problems for spenders and/or recipients that other solutions are not doing.
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Their words
If a new monetary network with its own unit (i.e. not pegged to an existing currency as a credit rail on top of it, but rather a fully parallel system to central banks) is going to bootstrap from zero to massive, it requires upward volatility.
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Their words
So, daily leverage is pretty bad unless you're a short-term trader. Volatility hurts that type of leverage.
27 February 2025
8 January 2025
From one piece Full Steam Ahead: All Aboard Fiscal Dominance 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Since inflation is not primarily driven by private-sector lending in the current environment, making borrowing more expensive will not significantly cool the economy.
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Their words
Structural fiscal deficits have surpassed private sector lending and monetary policy as the primary drivers of economic activity and inflation, marking a fundamental shift in the economy's liquidity dynamics.
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korrents.com
The United States is not at risk of a financial crisis caused by the size of its government debt.optimismdisciplinegovernmentAmerica
Their words
Stabilizing factors such as the global demand for U.S. dollars and debt denominated in its own currency suggest an era of fiscal dominance in the U.S. that's less dramatic than alarmists predict but more persistent and intractable than optimists hope.
24 September 2024
From one piece Bitcoin: A Global Liquidity Barometer 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
as the Bitcoin ecosystem matures, infrastructure improves, and more regulatory clarity emerges, I expect the frequency of these 'Black Swan' events to diminish over time.
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Their words
Since then, these unconventional monetary policies have increasingly become the dominant force moving asset prices.
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korrents.com
Bitcoin tracks the direction of global liquidity more consistently than any other major asset class.Their words
Bitcoin moves in the direction of global liquidity 83% of the time in any given 12-month period, which is higher than any other major asset class, making it a strong barometer of liquidity conditions.
4 August 2024
20 July 2024
28 April 2024
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