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Jasmine Sun Writer and former Substack product manager; publishes essays and interviews on technology, culture and China at jasmi.news.
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Andrew Batson China economy researcher based in Beijing who writes on his personal blog about Chinese political economy, history, books and music.
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Dan Wang Writer and researcher on China, technology and industry; author of Breakneck, research fellow at Stanford, known for a widely read annual…
Said and published
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Say’s Law in China
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New Article: Book Review: China’s Examination Hell https://t.co/qJGWKpTLEZ I found China’s Examination Hell fascinating. It offers a very different perspective on education, learning and competition. Here’s my review.
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Why Carson Block Calls China Uninvestable
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Can the U.S.-Iran conflict be resolved without China’s help? We think not:
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"We can't let China's bots destroy the world before ours have a chance to!"
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Collin Hogue-Spears: How AI Works in China
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In US-China AI competition the closed labs are beside the point; the competitor that shifts things must be American, open source and able to serve inference at scale.
in this whole USA vs China thing OpenAI and Anthropic aren't relevant because they're positioned differently them building better models doesn't hurt china at all the competitor has to be - american - open source -…
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On the bigness of China
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China leapfrogged the West on cars by treating internal combustion as obsolete and mastering the technology that replaces it.
Technological leapfrogging in action. China realized that internal combustion cars are largely obsolete, and mastered the he technology of the future. We didn't.
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Michael Kratsios: Trump's Science Agenda, Anti-Science Claims, Fauci's Damage, DEI & China
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China is more likely to cooperate on AI safety if the US maintains a clear and comfortable lead in AI capabilities.
But given the Chinese Communist Party’s power-seeking nature, it seems much more likely that China would agree to cooperate on AI safety if U.S. capabilities were comfortably ahead.
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(100) What’s stopping psychedelic therapy in China? 5 Questions with medical ethicist Jennifer Docherty
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The West's biggest blindspot is repeatedly underestimating China's speed and capabilities.
The West's biggest blindspot is repeatedly underestimating China's speed and capabilities
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New podcast episode: https://t.co/CA0rp35ZIf US-Iran War ends when China decides to help broker a deal (not soon)
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The strange case of China’s urban consumption
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America is still beating China in the AI race
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Rahm Emanuel: Trump's Foreign Policy, China, Europe's Decline, Immigration & DSA vs Democrats
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Chinese writers' preoccupation with China alone is what limits China's soft power abroad.
To come to my key point: this self-concentration limits China’s ideological influence in the rest of the world and its soft power.
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Saronic Founders: Autonomous Warships, China's 230X Advantage & Swarms of Robot Ships
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xAI — xAI
I can confirm @xAI was the only Western AI I was able to use when I was traveling in China
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Ben Thompson on Big Tech, China, and the AI Boom Running Out of Money - [Invest Like the Best, EP.487]
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Google's AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable's 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
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China had more ideological influence in the world during the Cultural Revolution than it has today.
Paradoxically, China might have had more soft power when it followed self-destructive policies of Maoist Cultural Revolution.
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This is exactly right. The book is an intentional study of what the China the 1980s could learn from the America of the 1980s—and Wang found a lot in America to be emulated and admired.
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Can the AI Industry Regulate Itself? Stripe Wants PayPal, China Catches Up, NY Bans Datacenters
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…Hermes. A Greek god, discovered in a desert cemetery in what is now western China…
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China's economic success has produced no transferable blueprint that other poor countries could follow.
China’s tremendous success had not resulted in a blueprint that could be followed from Afghanistan to Zambia on how to become rich in four decades.
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The $1/Hour Worker: Four Robotics CEOs on Humanoids at Home, China's Threat, and the End of Dangerous Jobs
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The end of an era for China's economy
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Reading List 08/01/26
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More Trillion Dollar IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts
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A large, sustained AI capability lead by either the US or China could shift the global balance of power between them.
If either country opens up a large, sustained lead in AI capabilities, it might upend the balance of power between the two.
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The Tribute System: The New World Order
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Absolutely stunning how quickly the US and China have reversed positions in the eyes of the rest of the world. (In Canada alone, U.S. favorability fell from 57% in 2023 to 33% in 2026 while China rose from 14% to 44%: a…
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Reading List 07/25/26
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Restricting US AI models does not work: China builds better ones and everyone switches to them.
US: restricts US AI model because too dangerous China: builds better Chinese AI model Everyone: switches to Chinese AI model This is why restricting models probably doesn't work, it's much more preferable (for US) to…
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Don’t ask me about my profits, but let’s talk about your wages
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How severe is China’s growth slowdown (in historical perspective)?
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Darren Farber on Iran, China, and the Rise of Neoprimes - [Invest Like the Best, EP.474]
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Li Daokui's comments are important because there are so few domestic voices in China stating what (I think) is the obvious truth about the economy: the main problem is that aggregate demand is weak, growth is running…
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Excellent piece, very clear and accurate. Just what I've been saying! China's weak real effective exchange rate is a consequence of bad domestic macro policies, and appreciating the nominal rate without different macro…
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Real talk about the exchange rate
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🌻 notes on AI, labor, and China
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Does China have a huge electricity advantage over the United States?
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I'm traveling the world for a bit, starting with China but then hopping around the globe, anywhere. Open to any adventure. No plans, only a backpack. Hoping to meet & get to know humans from all walks of life. The pic…
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A lot of the discussion about the depreciation of/undervaluation of China's real effective exchange rate takes for granted that this is about the currency. After all, it's called the "exchange rate"! But it's actually…
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My @ProSyn #InsiderInterview with Philippe Aghion is now freely available here: https://t.co/q1pjSpE81D We discuss creative destruction and competition, reviving European dynamism, China, AI, and more
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Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future — Dan Wang
Dan Wang, Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future
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Cheap synthetic fuel made from sunlight and air would help China more than America, because it frees China from the oil it has to import.
It absolutely asymmetrically helps China. We're not currently working with China. They don't plan to, but like the physics is very obvious, you know, and synthetic fuels have been around for 100 years.
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Historical trajectories of local government in India and China
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China's Political Model
A New Idea of India, China's Political Model, Seeing Like a State, Tomorrow the World, From Third World to First, When Money Dies, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union
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🆕✍️ China has a major working-age population advantage through at least 2075. Given this advantage, they have a path to dwarf the U.S. economy. gabrielweinberg.com/p/china-has-...
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China to Chinatown — JAG Roberts
He has drawn together all kinds of different sources that would be a lot of work to find on your own.
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#490 – State of AI in 2026: LLMs, Coding, Scaling Laws, China, Agents, GPUs, AGI
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American shipbuilding capacity has collapsed to a rounding error beside China's.
The U.S. Navy estimates that China’s shipbuilding capacity is 232 times our own.
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Xi Jinping has formally demoted economic growth from being China's top task.
And Xi Jinping has formally de-prioritized economic growth as China’s top task.
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Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China — Ezra F. Vogel
A New Idea of India, China's Political Model, Seeing Like a State, Tomorrow the World, From Third World to First, When Money Dies, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union
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China's problem is not too little state capacity but too much of it.
Second, China’s problem is usually not too little state capacity, but too much.
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Early China: A Social and Cultural History — Feng Li
Feng Li's Early China: A Social and Cultural History is a staid yet serviceable overview of the pre-imperial period.
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China's history says it is not an acquisitive power: it is not going to go out and invade a whole bunch of countries.
The good news, the history of China suggests that China is not inquisitive, meaning they’re not going to go out and invade a whole bunch of countries.
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American shipbuilding capacity has collapsed to a rounding error beside China's.
China built half of the world’s ships (by gross tonnage) in 2022, while the US had 0.2 percent of capacity: in practice, this meant that while China builds hundreds of new ships a year, the US builds three to five.
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State of AI in 2026: LLMs, Coding, Scaling Laws, China, Agents, GPUs, AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #490
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Export controls cannot deny China compute: it already manufactures most of the world’s mainstream chips and has some of the world’s best computer scientists.
And so you just have to first realize that chips exist in China. They manufacture 60% of the world's mainstream chips, maybe more. It's a very large industry for them. They have some of the world's greatest computer…
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A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it.
But you cannot support these programs while calling out China for “cheating” for doing the same.
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China's technological competitiveness is grounded in manufacturing capability rather than in scientific research.
Whereas the US has a track record of doing great science, China’s technology competitiveness is grounded in manufacturing capabilities.
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China bows to de-industrialization
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Breakneck — Dan Wang
Wang argues that the US & China each have a dominant form of government problem-solving
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China will not fade away, so America has to reform itself for a protracted contest with a peer competitor.
It is that China will not fade away, meaning that America must reform itself for a protracted contest with a peer competitor.
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When Money Dies — Adam Fergusson
A New Idea of India, China's Political Model, Seeing Like a State, Tomorrow the World, From Third World to First, When Money Dies, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union
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Tomorrow the World — Stephen Wertheim
A New Idea of India, China's Political Model, Seeing Like a State, Tomorrow the World, From Third World to First, When Money Dies, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union
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A New Idea of India
A New Idea of India, China's Political Model, Seeing Like a State, Tomorrow the World, From Third World to First, When Money Dies, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union
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“There is a great disorder under the heaven. The situation is excellent”
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Europe is an economic superpower, and at present it is the only democratic one.
Europe, along with China and the United States, is an economic superpower. And, at this point in time, it is arguably the world’s only democratic superpower.
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China will remain the world's largest manufacturer for many years yet, whatever production moves to India and Vietnam.
Though companies are relocating production to India and Vietnam, China is going to remain the world’s largest manufacturer for many more years to come.
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China will incorporate Taiwan, peacefully or militarily, and from its own standpoint that outcome is not in doubt.
Yes, China has been very clear that they’ll incorporate Taiwan peacefully or militarily, but that they will incorporate it from their standpoint is 100% likely.
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Seeing Like a State — James C. Scott
A New Idea of India, China's Political Model, Seeing Like a State, Tomorrow the World, From Third World to First, When Money Dies, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union
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Most of China's economy may be dysfunctional, but the small part that works spectacularly well is what threatens American interests.
While 50 percent of China’s economy might be dysfunctional, the 5 percent that’s going spectacularly well is pretty dangerous to American interests.
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From Third World to First — Lee Kuan Yew
A New Idea of India, China's Political Model, Seeing Like a State, Tomorrow the World, From Third World to First, When Money Dies, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union
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Who believes in China’s output gap?
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Classic Food of China — Yan-Kit So
Classic Food of China was really her great work, though. I think it was the last book she produced before she died, some years ago. It's one of the few really well-researched historical and cultural Chinese cookery…
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Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union — Vladislav M. Zubok
A New Idea of India, China's Political Model, Seeing Like a State, Tomorrow the World, From Third World to First, When Money Dies, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union
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India and the invidious comparison with China
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Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future
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China notes, July ’23: on technological momentum
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The single greatest risk of AI is not AI itself but that China wins global AI dominance and the United States and the West do not.
The single greatest risk of AI is that China wins global AI dominance and we – the United States and the West – do not.
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China's industrial lead was manufactured by deliberate state industrial policy rather than by market forces alone.
The foundations of China’s success in EVs were built a decade ago, when the state decided to bet on batteries, and then bought up a lot of the mines for these metals.
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Only Newsom Can Go To China
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Google Maps — Google
Google Maps essentially really doesn't work in China, the location of our hotel Aman in Beijing for example was completely wrong
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The Opium War — Julia Lovell
I’ve started to do a China history deep dive and this was on the list
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China's ageing population will not do serious damage to its economy until the second half of this century.
But China’s economic might is not going to go “poof” and disappear from population aging; in fact, as I’ll explain, it probably won’t suffer significant problems from aging until the second half of this century.
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The era in which Europe bought its energy from Russia, had its goods made in China and left its security to the United States is over.
And so yes, the era when Europe bought its energy and fertilizers from Russia, had its goods manufactured in China, and delegated its security to the United States of America, is over.
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It is the party's censorship, not any lack of talent, that has made China a cultural underperformer beside Japan and South Korea.
As I’ve written in each of my previous letters, the party’s strangling of free expression has rendered China into a pitiful underperformer relative to Japan and South Korea in the creation of cultural products.
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China’s World View — David Daokui Li
Senior academic advisor to the Chinese Communist Party feels most political tensions come from a misunderstanding of China’s world view, hence the subtitle “demystifying to prevent global conflict”, and his intrinsic…
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China's advantage in solar manufacturing is neither cheap labour nor a friendlier business environment: the first is gone and the second was never true.
so the mainstream view would say, well, China has cheaper labor, which is no longer true, uh, say compared to Mexico, and it's got lower environmental regulations, uh, which is true, and that it is more…
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I had a lot of fun presenting to @AaronBastani, who coined the term Fully Automated Luxury Communism, the idea that China should be understood as Partially Automated Authoritarian State Capitalism
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China's cultural and intellectual output to the world is far smaller than its economic weight.
Never has any economy grown so much while producing so few cultural exports.
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The 2021 crackdown was a bounded correction, and it would take more than a regulatory campaign to defeat China's economic dynamism.
What I did not sufficiently appreciate is that a state that would so casually decapitate a sector like online tutoring would also have the will to visit catastrophe upon whole cities.
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China Talk — Jordan Schneider
When this is good and on point, it is very, very good, and provides essential perspective I couldn’t have found elsewhere, especially when doing key interviews.
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Only the US and China have substantial startup activity left; the rest of the world cannot really do startups.
I just realized the only 2 countries left with actual substantial startup activity now are literally only the US and China The rest of the world can't really do startups, doesn't have the funding, can't grow them and…
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The West's biggest blindspot is repeatedly underestimating China's speed and capabilities.
I worry however that one of America’s superpowers is to spin up yarns to reduce the urgency for action.
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Thirsty Dragon: China's Lust for Bordeaux and the Threat to the World's Best Wines — Suzanne Mustacich
…Suzanne Mustacich. She is based in Bordeaux, but she clearly travelled to China an awful lot and unravelled a most amusing commercial battle that went on in the early years of this decade between the Bordeaux chateau…
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I outline a bear case for China to @DouthatNYT: substantial numbers of the rich, the creative, and the desperate are eager to emigrate — the latter trekking across the southwestern US border. Whose great rejuvenation is…
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Arthur and I have a piece in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs — China’s technological momentum is driven by its gigantic investments in power, connectivity, and process knowledge The U.S. should make the same…
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Kimi K2.1 — Moonshot AI
I keep an eye on China’s open models, and it’s impressive how quickly they catch up. GLM 4.6 and Kimi K2.1 are strong contenders that slowly reach Sonnet 3.7 quality
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GLM 4.6 — Zhipu AI
I keep an eye on China’s open models, and it’s impressive how quickly they catch up. GLM 4.6 and Kimi K2.1 are strong contenders that slowly reach Sonnet 3.7 quality
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The Broken Ice
The Broken Ice (China) 3.2 A few decades ago, I would have been more impressed by this film, which is roughly in the style of Jia Zhangke. Now it seems a bit derivative.
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The Food of China — EN Anderson
It offers a good counterpart to the KC Chang. It's very well researched and comprehensive, covering all aspects of Chinese cooking – ingredients, cooking techniques, history, agricultural system and so on.
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Tariffs are beside the point in the energy race with China; what is actually costing America is environmental regulation, and Texas is out-deploying California ten to one because of it.
In terms of things that are causing us to lose to China, tariffs are neither here nor there because, as we've discussed, we're not sensitive to cost on power. But the environmental regulations that are actively…
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This ChinaTalk podcast felt special because @jordanschneider had me hold his one-year-old just before the recording, encouraged both of us to reflect on our time in Beijing, and tolerated my remarks on how sentences…
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Exams are everything in China
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Medieval Chinese Warfare, 300-900 — David Graff
David Graff's Medieval Chinese Warfare, 300-900 is actually a political-institutional history of China from 200 AD-1000 AD, and is probably the best political narrative history we have for the time period.
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…JMP, on the economic consequences of the Household Responsibility System in China. It's a clever and counterintuitive example of how creative data work can help us answer important historical…
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China's real weakness is not its economy but its geography: it imports almost all its oil across an ocean its navy cannot defend.
China is surrounded by 15 countries who are mostly hostile to it, right? with no good like mountain ranges or rivers or anything to really separate them. And then they get all their oil, almost all their oil from the…
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2021 letter