All the frontier companies are cooked. With the open weight models we're approaching a world where models are a commodity run by thousands of operators at very thin margins just like web hosting today.
Because one can measure these things, one can monitor this debt dynamic happening, so it’s easy to see problems approaching. I’ve used this diagnostic process in my investing and I’ve kept it to myself, but I’m now explaining it in detail in How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle because it is too important to keep to myself.
I think in some ways like one of the worst scenarios is a drip scenario because of the political economy piece. Right? Because like you know, people essentially what you what you might see is like people not really being unemployed in mass, but kind of like moving into sectors that pay them less money, kind of basically getting uh what happened with phone operators in in in the mid-century of the of the between 1920 and 1940, phone operators were completely automated, right? But it took 20 years even though the technology existed.
local-first software, which is this idea that we want to take away a bit of the power from cloud operators and give it back to end users. So, end users should be more in control of their own data and less dependent on cloud services for providing the applications and the data that that the users need.
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