Related posts
Nick Maggiulli x.com
Since 1926, the median U.S. stock has underperformed the market by 7.9% over a 10-year period. If you have a lot of money in one stock, you'll likely experience a similar fate. But you don't have to. My latest on the best way to sell a concentrated position:
The subject this post names, from the same vocabulary the directory files beliefs under, and the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
Top people
Showing Profile →
Hiding
Hiding
19 September
14 September
12 September
11 September
-
Their words
most surveys find that the median AI researcher forecasts about a 5% chance of extinction or similar "doom" from AI, while the mean probability is much higher -- around 15-20% -- due to a smallish group who give very high probabilities of doom.
2 September
-
Their words
the median venture capitalist has not been much better at harvesting alpha than the median mutual fund manager or PE investor
1 September
31 August
-
korrents.com
The median American student learns essentially nothing between eighth grade and twelfth grade.Their words
There's a test, there's a bunch of them, but you can use this one, which is NWA MAP test. It's a 300point scale. The average eighth grader to 12th grader goes up one point from a you know it depends on the subject but 233 to 234 four years later they don't learn anything.
26 August
-
korrents.com
Agent-written pull requests already outclass those of the median human contributor to an open source project.Their words
But it actually means that if you take the median programmer and their pull requests towards an average open source project, they're already getting outclassed by agents. I would rather get an agent-written pull request to one of my projects than I'd get one written by a human, and it's not just because the quality's better. It's also because I feel a lot less bad if I just reject it.
17 August
11 August
From one piece Ryan Greenblatt – What happens once AI can automate AI research? 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
-
Their words
I would say that I expect like full automation of AR&D perhaps somewhere around like 2031 2030 and then getting to like the like beats all humans on the job milestone. Maybe I expect median around 2033
-
korrents.com
Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress.Their words
Maybe my sort of median expectation is something like uh four or five years of AI progress in a single year.
31 July
-
Their words
Um, but actually the median business, uh, is doing better this year than a year ago. Um, and so and then if we kind of, um, stratify and look at the probability that any given business will reach some revenue threshold, a million dollars, five million dollars, 10 million dollars, whatever, um, those all seem to be getting better.
22 July
8 May
Nothing matches.
What is a korrent?
A korrent is a belief a person has stated in their own words: one sentence stating the claim, backed by a quote and a source, kept at korrents.com.
Under a name here, the quoted block is what they actually said. The korrent beneath it is the claim those words support, in korrents' wording — tap it to see the record, its source, and who else holds it.
Nobody here wrote their own korrents. They are compiled from public statements, and a person can change their mind, which is recorded too.
About the English under a post
Some people here publish in a language other than English. Where they do, this site shows a machine translation beneath the post, in this typeface — the site's own, not theirs.
The post itself is never changed, moved or hidden: what is set in the serif above is exactly what the person published, and it is what to quote them on. A translation can be wrong in ways that matter, especially about tone.
Only the post's own words are translated. A quoted post, a linked article and a belief on korrents.com are left in their original language.