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Alex Tabarrok x.com
The https://t.co/JNwXB1othU ranks me the number one individual predictor!?? (Wilson score) I would not have predicted that.
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17 September
4 September
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I long for the halcyon days of early Web 2.0 when it was predicted that all APIs would work with everything and data and control would belong to the user. Oh well - that didn't happen.
16 July
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AI is developing at a very rapid pace, far more rapidly than most outside of the industry fully understand, and far more rapidly than almost anyone in the industry predicted.
9 July
8 July
13 June
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Once we can accurately predict cancer 5+ years ahead, the era of primary prevention will go into high gear.
27 May
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If you get your positioning right, the world just keeps handing you wins that you didn't even expect. So like we never predicted this exact scenario but like our fundamental understanding of the position was right. like if if there is a neutral party, all these companies with billions of dollars will kind of use a neutral party to advance their own like company's interests.
26 May
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13 years ago, at the Wired 2013 event in London, I was asked when robotaxis would arrive there and as a joke, gave an answer of June 22, 2026 that turned out to be impossibly spot on.
24 April
1 January
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This is a topic that I warned about very publicly in 2025 , where I predicted that AI could displace half of all entry-level white collar jobs in the next 1–5 years, even as it accelerates economic growth and scientific progress.
17 November 2025
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korrents.com
How verifiable a task is now predicts how automatable it is, the way specifiability predicted it in the 1980s.Their words
The more a task/job is verifiable, the more amenable it is to automation in the new programming paradigm.
5 October 2025
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I mean in my experience the typical win rate and I hate to use that term for experiments is is often something like 30 to 50%. Like usually you're not actually get like you're trying a bunch of things a lot of hypotheses turn out not to be true. you know, consumer products are very unpredictable like that.
10 July 2025
1 January 2025
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Waymo now has a service that looks and feels like this in San Francisco, 8 years earlier than I predicted. But it is not what every one was expecting. There are humans in the loop.
20 February 2024
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korrents.com
Most investments are really speculations, because only a handful of businesses can be predicted with any confidence.Their words
And very few businesses that you can have a really high degree of certainty about. And as a result, many investments are speculations because it's really very difficult to predict the future.
2 January 2024
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Many other predictions have already been broken, as life expectancy has continued to rise.
6 November 2023
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It is fair to say that, while economists expected the short end of the yield curve to reflect the higher rates needed to win the fight against inflation, the sharply steeper long end of the yield curve in the last few months has come as a surprise. I shall freely admit that I did not predict it.
11 October 2023
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A number of commentators have consistently predicted that solar cost improvements will level out “this year” since about 1990, and yet if anything deployment, cost decline, and the learning rate have only improved.
2 August 2023
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