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Alex Tabarrok x.com
The https://t.co/JNwXB1othU ranks me the number one individual predictor!?? (Wilson score) I would not have predicted that.
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17 September
15 September
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Paul Buchheit meme-ranks with Jobs, Zuck, and Elon. (He's the one who came up with "Don't be evil.")
14 September
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that doesn't have to persist long for AI to join the ranks of systems that are important enough that there's someone senior in the government who's responsible for regulating them.
6 September
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korrents.com
Whatever AI does to the size of the pie, it will most likely increase concentration in the market and the economy.Their words
Even if AI makes the pie grow bigger, it feels like a better bet that it will only increase the level of concentration in the stock market and economy if the past is a good predictor of the future.
4 September
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I long for the halcyon days of early Web 2.0 when it was predicted that all APIs would work with everything and data and control would belong to the user. Oh well - that didn't happen.
3 September
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every week i see a new benchmark that ranks claude code last and everyone pats themselves on the back for not using claude code and being "smarter" and it's still #1 and still growing faster than most of the other things on the list this has been going on for a year
31 August
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korrents.com
Family income, not IQ, is the single biggest predictor of a child's academic performance in America.Their words
The single biggest indicator of your performance is your family income. You can predict somebody's test scores basically.
20 July
From one piece Accelerate Learning & Increase Cognitive Capacity | Dr. Tommy Wood 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
How an athlete says they feel predicts their performance better than their HRV or any blood marker you can collect.Their words
And we know that how you feel, so how an athlete feels is a much better predictor of their performance than their HRV or any of their blood test.
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And what they [snorts] found was that the most important predictor of how well somebody performed at those piano specific skills was not their age, it was how much they practice.
16 July
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AI is developing at a very rapid pace, far more rapidly than most outside of the industry fully understand, and far more rapidly than almost anyone in the industry predicted.
13 July
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it's also interesting that that subjective age is a better predictor of how long you'll live than your biological age.
9 July
8 July
13 June
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Once we can accurately predict cancer 5+ years ahead, the era of primary prevention will go into high gear.
27 May
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If you get your positioning right, the world just keeps handing you wins that you didn't even expect. So like we never predicted this exact scenario but like our fundamental understanding of the position was right. like if if there is a neutral party, all these companies with billions of dollars will kind of use a neutral party to advance their own like company's interests.
26 May
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13 years ago, at the Wired 2013 event in London, I was asked when robotaxis would arrive there and as a joke, gave an answer of June 22, 2026 that turned out to be impossibly spot on.
10 May
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korrents.com
Trustworthiness is the most underrated asset in business, and prioritizing by ROI always ranks it last.Their words
Trustworthiness is the most underrated asset in all of business. And the things that create trustworthiness by definition stack rank to the bottom if we do it by ROI because doing the right thing has intangible rewards but tangible costs.
24 April
1 January
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Because if it's not fun, if it's not engaging or interesting, if it doesn't feel good, you're not going to stick with it when it gets tough. I mean, this is probably one of the great lessons for life, which is if you're having fun, then then you're dangerous, right? Then you're hard to compete with. You don't want to you don't want to go up against the person who's having a good time doing it because if it feels like a hassle or a chore, that's the person who gives up when it gets difficult.
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This is a topic that I warned about very publicly in 2025 , where I predicted that AI could displace half of all entry-level white collar jobs in the next 1–5 years, even as it accelerates economic growth and scientific progress.
17 November 2025
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korrents.com
How verifiable a task is now predicts how automatable it is, the way specifiability predicted it in the 1980s.Their words
The more a task/job is verifiable, the more amenable it is to automation in the new programming paradigm.
5 October 2025
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I mean in my experience the typical win rate and I hate to use that term for experiments is is often something like 30 to 50%. Like usually you're not actually get like you're trying a bunch of things a lot of hypotheses turn out not to be true. you know, consumer products are very unpredictable like that.
28 September 2025
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korrents.com
Who is in a school predicts its results better than anything about its teaching, its teachers or its methods.Their words
Once again, the composition of the student body is always more powerful a predictor than any identifiable pedagogical, school, or teacher variable.
There Are No Miracles in Educationfreddiedeboer.substack.com
10 July 2025
4 July 2025
1 January 2025
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Waymo now has a service that looks and feels like this in San Francisco, 8 years earlier than I predicted. But it is not what every one was expecting. There are humans in the loop.
24 October 2024
20 February 2024
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korrents.com
Most investments are really speculations, because only a handful of businesses can be predicted with any confidence.Their words
And very few businesses that you can have a really high degree of certainty about. And as a result, many investments are speculations because it's really very difficult to predict the future.
2 January 2024
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Many other predictions have already been broken, as life expectancy has continued to rise.
6 November 2023
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It is fair to say that, while economists expected the short end of the yield curve to reflect the higher rates needed to win the fight against inflation, the sharply steeper long end of the yield curve in the last few months has come as a surprise. I shall freely admit that I did not predict it.
11 October 2023
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A number of commentators have consistently predicted that solar cost improvements will level out “this year” since about 1990, and yet if anything deployment, cost decline, and the learning rate have only improved.
2 August 2023
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