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Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.

• Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?

  Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.

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Founder of the Free Software Movement and the GNU Project, original author of GNU Emacs and the GNU General Public License, and long-time president of the Free Software Foundation.

• [1/2] https://stallman.org/glossary.html#thug https://civicshout.com/p/keep-ice-away-from-our-polling-places https://stallman.org/glossary.html#thug https://stallman.org/glossary.html#thug US citizens: call on the Department of Hostile Savagery to keep the deportation thugs away from our polling places. A Republican gubernatorial candidate in Maine said he would invite deportation thugs to come to Maine's polling places to intimidate and perhaps terrorize voters. Citizens who are

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Former options market maker who writes Moontower, a newsletter on trading, volatility, decision-making and how to think about risk outside markets too.

• 2 polls in this thread
  Quoting@KrisAbdelmessihBonus question: What's your market on what percentage of the responses are the right answer

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Professor of international affairs at Johns Hopkins SAIS and co-author, with Abraham Newman, of Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy.

• @mattduss.bsky.social "The problem here is the opposite of what Moskowitz claims: Hawkish Democrats aren’t being marginalized enough in the Democratic Party."

  thenation.com

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Geneticist and writer on human population genetics, deep history and evolution; author of the Unsupervised Learning newsletter.

• no, the threat is normies will think you are a racist freak and vote for democrats forever
  Quoting@LuxRatio@razibkhan So the threat is: if you don’t support our goal of demographic replacement via mass immigration then we will vote even more the the left?

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Software engineer, Wikipedia editor and crypto critic; writes Citation Needed and runs Web3 is Going Just Great.

• The Clarity Act cloture vote has failed by a 49–50 margin; well short of the 60 votes needed. No Democrats crossed over to vote for the bill, and three Republicans voted against. Senator Collins’ (R-ME) NO vote on Clarity was the most surprising today. She was defending the bill to constituents as recently as last week. My guess is she did not believe the bill had a chance to pass, and was more worried about defending a yes vote as her re-election prospects look slimmer. #crypto #cryptocurrency #USpol #USpolitics

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Programmer and writer; co-founder of Stack Overflow and Discourse, and author of the Coding Horror blog, which he has written since 2004.

• "The effort from Conway’s San Francisco-based investment firm SV Angel, dubbed Project Blueprint, intends to fill a vacuum between policymakers and the AI industry ahead of a midterm cycle where Democrats are poised to make gains in Congress"

  politico.com

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Co-founder of Modem and a founding engineer at Sentry, where he went on to be VP of Engineering. Co-author of Third-party JavaScript, and co-host of the State of Agentic Coding podcast with Armin Ronacher.

• We're about to hit 20 data integrations (!) - each is isolated in its own @CloudflareDev worker(s) - await incoming data mostly via webhooks, some polling, one websockets - each processes events into Modem's ingest format & forwards to our main service/pipeline - they manage their own resiliency/recovery - all have staging envs, run E2E before prod
  Quoting@modemdevGet an instant pulse on customer sentiment from every channel - bring your agent or use ours Now with support for Pylon, Plain, and Canny

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Founder and CEO of Social Capital, a venture firm; co-host of the All-In podcast and an early Facebook executive. Writes an annual letter and a weekly newsletter on markets and technology.

• Rahm Emanuel: Trump's Foreign Policy, China, Europe's Decline, Immigration & DSA vs Democrats

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Co-founder of WordPress and founder of Automattic; blogs at ma.tt.

• Beeper Merge

  Beeper has some fun new features where you can merge chats with the same person across multiple networks, polls, labels… Very exciting work happening on that product.

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Librarian, technology instructor and writer in rural Vermont; longtime community manager at MetaFilter and author of a book on the digital divide.

• I am not running for re-election as a Justice of the Peace in November (14 years is enough) and I'm mostly fine with it but will miss getting to run the tabulator for elections. Today was one of those nice primaries where the people I campaigned for, gave advice to, and talked to today, all won (N=3) and the less-evil sheriff candidate handily won. I got to work the polls with my friends and see my neighbors. I'm not a big voting personal generally, but I like small town elections #vermont

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Software engineer, Wikipedia editor and crypto critic; writes Citation Needed and runs Web3 is Going Just Great.

• Issue 107 – An unserious offer

  The crypto industry has spent $200 million to get a bill too corrupt for Democrats to pass and a president too corrupt to sign anything that might meaningfully limit his grift.

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Co-founder of Modem and a founding engineer at Sentry, where he went on to be VP of Engineering. Co-author of Third-party JavaScript, and co-host of the State of Agentic Coding podcast with Armin Ronacher.

• Just noticed a vibe-coded project of mine cost $200/month to serve a few dozen users/day 😭 Turns out it was doing 10s of millions of unnecessary Redis polls/day, even when idle - telemetry alone cost $$ a possible clue for why infra providers are growing so much right now

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Writes Very Serious, a newsletter on politics, the economy and culture, and hosts the podcast of the same name.

• The Redistricting Loss Means Democrats Must Moderate to Win

  The way to compensate for a less-favorable map is by winning a larger share of the vote, so Democrats must move closer to the median voter.

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Writes Very Serious, a newsletter on politics, the economy and culture, and hosts the podcast of the same name.

• The Adolescents Have Taken Over Policymaking

  Democrats increasingly match Republicans' emotionally immature approach to policy — a problem for the party that's supposed to be invested in making government work.

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Investigative journalist on policing, forensics and criminal justice; wrote Rise of the Warrior Cop and writes The Watch.

• The Constitution is not a bargaining chip for a budget negotiation

  The Democrats demanded that Trump's immigration cops follow the law and the Constitution. The Republicans called those demands "nonstarters."

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Writes Very Serious, a newsletter on politics, the economy and culture, and hosts the podcast of the same name.

• The Cult of Jasmine Crockett Shows Democrats are Still Trapped in the Dumbest Form of Identity Politics

  Comedians Bowen Yang and Matt Rogers were right to tell people not to waste money on her campaign. But they had to apologize anyway.

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President of the United States, the 45th from 2017 to 2021 and, as of 2026, the 47th; before politics a New York property developer who ran the Trump Organization, and the host of The Apprentice from 2004 to 2015.

• I am asking all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District to please GET OUT AND VOTE for a phenomenal Candidate and MAGA Warrior, Matt Van Epps! You can win this Election for Matt, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement. HE WILL BE A GREAT CONGRESSMAN and, unlike his Opponent, he cherishes Christianity and Country Music — She has openly stated that she hates them both! TN-07: Polls close at 7:00 P.M. IF YOU ARE IN LINE BY 7 P.M., STAY IN LINE, AND THEY MUST LET YOU VOTE. GET OUT AND VOTE, VOTE, VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS — HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN! Find your voting loc…

  swampthevoteusa.com

  AmericaRelated

• I am asking all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District to please GET OUT AND VOTE TOMORROW for a phenomenal Candidate, Matt Van Epps, on Election Day, Tuesday, December 2nd! You can win this Election for MAGA Warrior Matt Van Epps, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement. HE WILL BE A GREAT CONGRESSMAN and, unlike his Opponent, he cherishes Christianity and Country Music — She has openly stated that she hates them both! TN-07: Polls open in all Counties no later than 9:00 A.M., but some open as early as 7:00 A.M. Polls close at 7:00 P.M. IF YOU ARE IN LINE BY 7 P.M…

  swampthevoteusa.com

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Journalist; wrote We Are Eating the Earth on food and climate, and writes the newsletter Emissions.

• Stop Sucking Up to Farmers

  My good advice that Democrats probably won't take

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Experimental psychologist and author of the blog Experimental History, on psychology, science reform and creativity.

• New study out today! We had a bunch of Democrats and Republicans do an Ideological Turing Test. People either portrayed themselves or pretended to be from the opposite party, and then another group tried to pick out the real partisans from the fake ones:

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Distributed-systems safety researcher; runs the Jepsen consistency-testing project and wrote the Riemann monitoring system.

• prometheus-mastodon-exporter — Exports Mastodon statistics for polling by Prometheus

  CommitsAdd andrew-d's exporter link · initial commit

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