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John Cochrane Blog
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18 September
17 September
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korrents.com
As AI inference costs fall, rising customer expectations will keep service margins from converging toward 100%.Their words
Margins will not climb to 100%. As inference gets cheaper, buyers will ask more of their agents, shifting the equilibrium over time in response to competition.
15 September
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Social media is destroying out society. Quitting doesn't help because everyone else is still on it. It's a bad equilibrium. It needs to be solved with government regulations.
14 September
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foundation is ostensibly a sci-fi series about empires, psychohistory, and hard technology, but really it's about individuals with extreme agency and puzzle-solving ability having wildly outsized impact on a universe that would otherwise just sit there waiting to decay
3 September
29 August
28 August
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I actually think the opposite, which is that there are going to be many more software engineers than even the rosiest current predictions, and that software engineers will take over these other jobs: legal, marketing, accounting.
10 August
30 July
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I'd personally give a central estimate closer to 3.5C than Hansen's ~4.5C
Why Hansen may end up being right about 2026theclimatebrink.com
26 June
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And so you kind of end up in this this bad equilibrium where everybody kind of knows that it's a bad equilibrium, but like nobody wants to break out. And I I felt like, okay, well, if I just hopefully come out and say like, look guys, let's all recognize that we're in a bad equilibrium and let's move to this different equilibrium where we're we're plotting things with an X-axis
14 June
3 April
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korrents.com
Writing originated from flattening physical accounting tokens into two-dimensional signs pressed into clay.Their words
By transforming a physical, three-dimensional counter into a two-dimensional sign, these early accountants made a momentous step towards history's inaugural information technology: writing.
12 February
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We show that equilibrium generically occurs at neither the Harberger nor Glaeser-Luttmer benchmark. Cost-minimizing suppliers drive allocations to vertices, not interiors. Corners are not an assumption but an outcome about what cost-minimizing suppliers choose. The correct benchmark is corners, not random, and corners generate qualitatively different welfare properties: losses far larger than either efficient or random distributions, and discontinuous jumps from small parameter perturbations.
25 November 2025
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And the solution is if people become part AI with some kind of neural link++ because what will happen as a result is that now the AI understands something and we understand it too like because now the understanding is transmitted wholesale.
26 October 2025
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korrents.com
Renewables now account for the bulk of the growth in electricity generation, whatever their opponents believe.Their words
there are many people who still refuse to believe that renewables can be practical even as renewables keep growing around the world, in fact accounting for the bulk of growth in electricity generation
25 October 2025
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korrents.com
Businesses raise prices only when their accounts force them to, not when they can see the cost coming.Their words
Business only raise prices when accounting losses force them to do so.
30 August 2025
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However, the methods used to produce these estimates are debatable, and seem to have been chosen to give the maximum possible value for data center water consumption.
I Was Wrong About Data Center Water Consumptionconstruction-physics.com
16 July 2025
From one piece The Jamie Dimon Interview: How JP Morgan Became an $800 Billion Bank 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
And the interest rate exposure was hidden by accounting. It was called held to maturity, where you don't have to mark even treasuries to market.
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the fortress balance sheet is that you run a company serving clients well, you have good margins, good liquidity, good capital. I'm as conservative in accounting as you can find. I don't up-front profits when I can spread them over time.
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korrents.com
In financial services what kills you is leverage and aggressive accounting, not bad luck.Their words
And and the thing about financial services, leverage kills you. Aggressive accounting can kill you, which a lot of companies do do.
13 June 2024
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korrents.com
Non-equilibrium physics will not explain life, and entropy has almost nothing to do with it.Their words
And there’s still a lot of impetus in the physics community to think that non-equilibrium physics will explain life. But I think that’s not the right approach. I don’t think ultimately the solution to what life is there, and I don’t really think entropy has much to do with it unless it’s entirely reformulated.
1 January 2024
21 December 2023
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The problem with these grand ambitions—saving humanity from extinction and enabling our species to reach its full potential millions of years from now—is that they ostensibly justify any cost in the present.
2 December 2022
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