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Essayist; writes Astral Codex Ten, previously Slate Star Codex.

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  Cheap superforecasting could revolutionize clinical trials and FDA regulation.

  Their words

  I run an advocacy group that works on reforming clinical trials and the FDA, and I think cheap superforecasting could revolutionize our field.

  AI Superforecasting Should Transform The FDAastralcodexten.com

Economist and Nobel laureate. Wrote a New York Times column for 25 years until December 2024 and now publishes several times a week on Substack.

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  Whether AI will transform the economy is still unsettled, with little evidence so far of massive job losses or soaring productivity growth

  Their words

  The jury is still out on that one: So far there is little evidence for either the massive job losses or the soaring productivity growth industry leaders threatened/promised, but it’s still early days.

  Why Is Trump Still Boosting AI?paulkrugman.substack.com

US science and technology adviser to the president, director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy; previously US chief technology officer and chief operating officer of Scale AI.

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  AI will transform how scientific discovery is done, and within two or three years a working scientist's job will already look dramatically different.

  Their words

  If you are working on material science, if you are working on pharmaceuticals, if you are working on chemistry, you in 2 3 years or even today are doing your role as a scientist dramatically different because of artificial intelligence.

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Professor of strategic studies at St Andrews; wrote How the War Was Won and The Strategists, and writes weekly on the war in Ukraine.

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  Ukraine's partners used their aid to control and limit Ukraine, and in doing so made the war longer and bloodier than it needed to be.

  Their words

  They have used aid not only to help, but also to try and control and limit Ukraine. In doing this, they have helped transform this war into a longer, bloodier affair than it needed to be.

  phillipspobrien.substack.com

Chief scientist at Redwood Research, where he works on technical AI safety and AI control.

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  AI that is merely excellent at research and hardware can transform the world completely without ever being good at politics.

  Their words

  Like I think my perspective is like if the AIs are sufficiently good at R&D including hardware R&D, robots, whatever, then they can radically transform the world even if they're not that good at playing politics.

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Swedish programmer with degrees in engineering and psychology, author of Your Code as a Crime Scene and founder of CodeScene.

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  Paradigms of Artificial Intelligence Programming

  Their words

  Paradigms of Artificial Intelligence Programming by Peter Norvig. Learning the AI described in this book probably won't land you a job today. But reading the code examples will transform how you think about source code. The book shines when it comes to code comments, a topic that I've never seen demonstrated well in other sources. Here we get to see how comments become valuable as a narrative that explains both intent and reasoning. Brilliant, just brilliant.

  adamtornhill.substack.com

Swedish essayist who writes Escaping Flatland, a newsletter of essays on relationships, thinking, writing and homeschooling.

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  Practices marketed as transformative, such as therapy, meditation, and psychedelics, often produce little real progress despite years of use.

  psychedelicsPsychotherapy

  Their words

  There are many practices that promise to transform and improve us-therapy, meditation, psychedelics-, but that branding doesn't mean that they actually do much for us: it is common to see people use these techniques for years without any obvious progress on their problems.

  How not to forget what mattershenrikkarlsson.xyz

Software entrepreneur who bootstrapped and sold FeedbackPanda and now builds Podscan; writes The Bootstrapped Founder.

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  Software businesses that merely transform incoming data and pass it back out are highly vulnerable to being replaced by agentic AI.

  Their words

  If you run a software business that is purely transformative - that takes incoming data, does something to it, and turns the data back out - that will be a problem.

  Data Is the Only Moatthebootstrappedfounder.com

Data scientist at Our World in Data and author of Not the End of the World. Writes By the Numbers, working through energy and climate questions with the numbers in front of them, and revising in public when they say something unexpected.

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  Meat: How the Next Agricultural Revolution Will Transform Humanity’s Favorite Food—and Our Future

  Their words

  If you’re interested in the environmental impacts of our current food system and want to dig into the opportunities for meat-like products without the animals (and their impacts), I really recommend it.

  hannahritchie.substack.com

Executive coach for product leaders. Previously a partner at GV (Google Ventures) and a product manager at Google. Writes at Bring the Donuts, including a standing essential-reading list for product managers.

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  Transformed: Moving to the Product Operating Model

  Their words

  The third book in Cagan’s trilogy, this one focuses on how companies can transform their cultures from project- to product-oriented. This book is probably less useful for the individual contributor, but it offers hope for anyone trapped in a feature team that something better is possible. Buy it for your boss or CEO.

  bringthedonuts.com

Writer on habits and decision-making; author of Atomic Habits and the 3-2-1 newsletter, and publisher of long-running book recommendation lists.

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  Habits stick because every repetition casts a vote for an identity, not because of the outcome any single repetition produces.

  Their words

  So one of the core lessons of atomic habits is that every action you take is like a vote for the type of person you wish to become. So, when you show up at the gym today, you are casting a vote for being the type of person who doesn't miss workouts. When you sit down and make one sales call, you are casting a vote for being a salesperson. When you write one sentence, you are casting a vote for being a writer. And no, doing one push-up does not transform your body, but it does cast a vote for that identity.

  The Silent Cost of Bad Habits | James Clearyoutube.com

Investment researcher and engineer who runs Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, writing on macroeconomics, currency systems and equity analysis.

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  Decentralized finance mainly converts custodial risk into technical risk rather than eliminating risk altogether.

  Their words

  While there is some utility value in DeFi, it basically lets users transform custodial risk into technical risk (e.g. bridge protocol hacks), which is not a free lunch.

  Why Most Cryptocurrencies Won’t Accrue Valuelynalden.com

Co-founder and chief scientist of Safe Superintelligence Inc., and previously co-founder and chief scientist of OpenAI.

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  Another hundredfold of scale would not transform anything; the field is back in the age of research, only now with big computers.

  Their words

  Like it would be different for sure but like is the belief that if you just 100x the scale everything would be transformed. I don't think that's true. So it's back to the age of research again just with big computers.

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Novelist and critic, author of The Body Scout and Metallic Realms; writes the newsletter Counter Craft on fiction craft and the publishing industry.

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  Sula

  Their words

  Toni Morrison's brief Sula—rereleased with a new cover this month—is one of her best works and a great starting place for her lush and lyrical style.

  countercraft.substack.com

Science fiction novelist, journalist and technology activist; writes the daily blog and newsletter Pluralistic, and coined the term enshittification.

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  9 Times My Work Has Been Ripped Off

  Their words

  Raymond Biesinger's new book 9 Times My Work Has Been Ripped Off is a masterclass in how creative workers can transform the endless, low-grade seething about the endless ripoffs of the industry into something productive and even profound

  pluralistic.net

Mathematician at UCLA, working mainly in harmonic analysis and partial differential equations. Writes What's new, a long-running blog on their research, open problems and expository notes.

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  AI could compete with human mathematicians once it acquires a mathematical sense of smell: knowing which way of splitting a problem makes it easier rather than harder.

  Their words

  Very rarely do you transform into a simpler problem. So if they can pick up a sense of smell, then they could maybe start competing with a human level of mathematicians.

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Cognitive scientist and long-standing critic of deep learning's claims; writes Marcus on AI and wrote Rebooting AI.

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  Anyone who thinks large language models are a direct route to transformative AGI is kidding themselves.

  AGILLMs

  Their words

  But anybody who thinks LLMs are a direct route to the sort AGI that could fundamentally transform society for the good is kidding themselves.

  A knockout blow for LLMs?garymarcus.substack.com

Development economist; writes Global Developments, on growth, history and the numbers behind them.

From one piece A World Without Aid? 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there

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  Aid transforms a country only where a capable state with a development plan is already there to spend it.

  Their words

  All this to say: capable states with ambitious developmental plans, when hit with a bazooka of money, can seize the opportunity to transform themselves.

  A World Without Aid?global-developments.org

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  Aid to African states has been large enough to warp their politics and too small to transform their economies.

  Their words

  As scholars like Nicolas van de Walle have pointed out, aid can also foster an unhealthy dependency—in his coinage, many African states live in a state of “permanent crisis”, where aid is large enough to reshape (and warp) the political economy around it, but not large enough to be fundamentally transform countries’ economies.

  A World Without Aid?global-developments.org

Founder and chief analyst of SemiAnalysis; reports on semiconductor supply chains, AI datacentre economics and what the chip export controls actually do.

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  If AI does not transform the economy within the next five to ten years, the export controls will have guaranteed that China wins the long run.

  China

  Their words

  if you believe we're in this sort of stage of economic growth and change that we've been in for the last 20 years, the export controls are absolutely guaranteeing that China will win long-term.

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