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korrents.com
The climate impact from NVIDIA's AI products in 2025 is comparable to that of a major state-owned coal company.Their words
we produced our own conservative estimate, finding that the climate impact from 2025's use of NVIDIA'S AI products is on par with the state-owned Russian Coal company.
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16 September
14 September
12 September
11 September
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korrents.com
Among AI people, roughly 10% is the typical estimate given for the risk of human extinction from AI.Their words
10% is pretty much the standard number you get when you ask AI people about the risk of human extinction from AI.
4 September
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Their words
And I do believe Atlas is a significant step forward because now with every single frame, you have a you can generate an estimate a important piece of information, which is the the view viewpoint, the camera pose. And that is the most critical information one needs about the geometry of the of the space.
1 September
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Their words
But in many of these cases, this vulnerability is just not broad or deep enough to ever actually be exploitable to get the flag. So a bunch of exploit gym problems are just unintentionally impossible. The authors estimate roughly 30 to 40% of these problems are impossible in this way.
29 August
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Their words
Consensus estimate is that ~15GW of AI compute produced in 2027 cannot be turned on in 2027. This is harder than just finding power, as you also need to build out all the transformers, wiring, liquid-cooling, (massive) chillers & complex networking.
11 August
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Facts and Fallacies of Software EngineeringTheir words
Facts and Fallacies of Software Engineering by Robert L. Glass. In essence, this is a book about an industry that refuses to learn. That was true 25 years ago when this book was published, and it's probably twice as true today. (Just think about all the AI adoption metrics being rolled out — back to productivity mistaken for lines of code produced, only more elaborate. And expensive). What I like about this book is that Glass doesn't present anything new. Quite the opposite, actually. Rather, it's about research lessons that we all should know, but tend to forget. Ever had to do an estimate, or plan according to a requirements spec? Or maybe you thought that enough eyeballs make all bugs shallow? Then this book is for you. A great work by a fantastic author.
5 August
3 August
30 July
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Their words
I'd personally give a central estimate closer to 3.5C than Hansen's ~4.5C
Why Hansen may end up being right about 2026theclimatebrink.com
22 July
29 June
24 June
12 May
27 February
19 February
17 February
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Their words
Both estimates make me think that the concern about global energy demand for LLMs is over-blown.
30 August 2025
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Their words
However, the methods used to produce these estimates are debatable, and seem to have been chosen to give the maximum possible value for data center water consumption.
I Was Wrong About Data Center Water Consumptionconstruction-physics.com
23 July 2025
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Their words
My estimate is sort of 50% chance by in the next five years, so by 2030 let's say. So I think there's a good chance that that could happen.
1 July 2025
14 June 2025
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korrents.com
Formalising a proof in Lean currently takes about ten times the effort of writing it out: doable, but annoying.Their words
So right now I estimate that the time and effort taken to formalize it, proof is about 10 times the amount taken to write it out. So it's doable, but it's annoying.
5 June 2025
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Their words
But the most important metric, and we carefully measure it is, like, how much has our engineering velocity increased as a company due to AI, right? It's tough measure, and we rigorously try to measure it, and our estimates are that number is now at 10%, right?
1 November 2024
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Their words
For rich countries to maintain their working-age population ratios in 2050 through permanent migration (where each worker brings one dependent), Lant Pritchett estimates they would need to become 40-50% foreign-born.
28 October 2024
5 September 2024
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Their words
The U.S. Navy estimates that China’s shipbuilding capacity is 232 times our own.
7 May 2024
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Their words
In particular, suppose that our control evaluations directly estimate a less than 1% chance of catastrophe if our untrusted AIs are scheming, then the actual risk conditional on scheming is probably more like 5% to 20% due to the potential for failures in the evaluation.
13 March 2024
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korrents.com
Making American farms more productive shrinks cropland in the rest of the world by more than it adds at home.Their words
Nelson Villoria estimates that for every 1% gain in Total Factor Productivity (inputs required per unit of output) in the US, croplands in the rest of the world shrink by 0.7%.
20 February 2024
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Their words
You want to buy a company at a price that if you're wrong about what you think it's worth and it turns out to be worth 30% less, you paid a deep enough discount to your estimate that you're still okay. A big part of investing is not losing money.
1 January 2024
13 December 2023
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Their words, before
If I were forced at gunpoint to guess, I’d say that human-level AI seemed to me like a slog of many more centuries or millennia (with the obvious potential for black swans along the way).
Their words now
I was wrong, of course, not to contemplate more seriously the prospect that AI might enter a civilization-altering trajectory, not merely eventually but within the next decade.
25 October 2023
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Their words
Yet lime is a huge blind spot for economic historians, despite it increasing the productivity of what was still by far the largest portion of the economy: agriculture.
Age of Invention: Lessons from the Rise of Coalageofinvention.xyz
5 September 2023
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korrents.com
Biofuels have probably raised greenhouse gas emissions rather than lowered them, once the land they take is counted.Their words
They estimate that biofuels have increased emissions, not decreased them.
1 April 2021
20 October 2020
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