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Their words
I'm not sure they fully understood that it wasn't really about juicing their numbers, but about churn prevention.
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15 September
14 September
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korrents.com
Rising atmospheric water vapor raises the ceiling on how extreme rainfall events can becomeTheir words
So the increase in PWAT is not just a weirdo statistic. It is a statement about the ceiling on the worst rain events we can face.
The Atmosphere Just Set a Water Vapor Recordtheclimatebrink.com
4 September
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Their words
You should probably work on raising the ceiling, not the floor Enthusiasm matters! It's much easier to work on things that are exciting to you
21 August
14 August
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korrents.com
Longer device upgrade cycles are beneficial because they reduce e-waste, pollution, and churn.Their words
But either way, it's good that upgrade cycles are longer: it means less e-waste, less pollution, less churn overall.
9 August
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korrents.com
New technologies raise the ceiling for skilled practitioners instead of diminishing them.Their words
What actually happened each time a new technology was introduced is that the ceiling went higher.
3 August
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Their words
common failure mode is picking the tech that gives you the fastest early ramp, riding that steep curve, feeling like you're winning, projecting that, you know, steep slope into the future and feeling like the sky is the limit, and then hitting the plateau, and discovering that the technology path that you picked actually flattens out way before the performance that is required by your product.
22 July
15 July
26 June
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Their words
But what we're seeing today with the modern models is that 5.5 and other models can think for if you scaffold them reasonably well, can think for weeks even um before having performance plateau on some of these benchmarks. And so, the point at which they plateau is simply too far out to reasonably test.
17 June
4 June
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Their words
So, what you need is that basically demand to be bounded, like a hard bound, not even like a soft sort of like diminishing sensitivity. You need for them to eventually say, "I've had enough. I don't want to spend any more money." And for that money to not enter as investment.
14 May
13 March
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Their words
So to scale compute further right there's some different bottlenecks this year next year uh but ultimately by 2829 the bottleneck falls to the lowest rung on the supply chain which is ASML right ASML makes the world's most complicated machine i.e. an EUV tool.
11 March
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Their words
If you're a monolith, you're kind of hosed because I told you the ceiling's going up for what they can do, but it ain't ever going to hit your monolith. They will never fit in the context window and you're never going to be able to never in the next 18 months be able to tell a model go fix my monolith. You have to break it up.
4 March
13 February
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Their words
The the chatbot is already running into limitations of, you know, making it smarter doesn't really help the average consumer that much. But I don't think that's a limitation of AI models. I don't think that's evidence that, you know, the models are are the models are good enough and they're they're, you know, them getting better doesn't matter to the economy.
25 January
From one piece The surprising advice from a founder who built 2 unicorns | Jason Cohen (WP Engine) 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Every subscription business has a hard ceiling on its size: new customers per month divided by the cancellation rate.Their words
So let's suppose you add 100 customers a month and you have 5% cancellation. So 100 divided by 5% is 2,000. So a company like that will never have more than 2,000 customers.
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Their words
They actually had the budget and bought the stupid thing. Then they went through onboarding and invested their time etc etc. That is a crazy gauntlet that almost no one gets through.
18 September 2025
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Their words
what you are try like trying to do as a tool maker, as an infrastructure builder, um as a product maker is you want to make a uh tool that brings the floor up significantly, but doesn't constrain the ceiling. And that is extremely hard.
13 August 2025
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korrents.com
China faces a genuine, sizable output gap right now, not just a lower structural growth ceiling.Their words
I'm with the markets here: I believe in the output gap. The structural slowdown of the Chinese economy is an incredibly consensus view, and I believe in it too.
12 July 2025
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On changing their mind
I used to think it required more churn to get progress to stay on the leading edge of new stuff. And I wrote this before I experienced the indignity of the 2010s in the JavaScript community.
5 May 2025
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Their words
If I tried to pack a lot of information into a volume, more information than I could pack, let’s say, on the surface of a black hole, I would simply make a black hole and I would find out, oh, I can’t have more information than I can fit on the surface.
23 April 2025
22 March 2025
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korrents.com
Without hard skills of your own, your ceiling as a programmer is whatever the LLMs happen to be capable of.Their words
And so if you don't have those hard skills and you're not ultimately the driver at the end of the day, you're going to really find some hard times, and your ability to progress will be directly bound to how good the LLMs are.
19 January 2025
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Their words
Growth team can optimize. Growth can maybe lift it by 10, 15% maybe that's enough for you even that like is on the upper end of what growth team would be able to do if there is a slow down trajectory
2 January 2024
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Their words
Many other predictions have already been broken, as life expectancy has continued to rise.
14 December 2023
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Their words
Compromise, the advantage of compromise as a resolution mechanism is that it's low energy, but it doesn't lead to truth. And so in things like the height of the ceiling where truth is a noble thing, you shouldn't allow compromise to be used when you can know the truth.
28 November 2022
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