This is the first time a debate over whether a model ‘was AGI’ felt non-silly. I do not think it is AGI, and I would warn against the dangers of using that label prematurely, but I would not laugh at you for disagreeing.
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in this whole USA vs China thing OpenAI and Anthropic aren't relevant because they're positioned differently
them building better models doesn't hurt china at all
the competitor has to be
- american
- open source
- enough compute to do inference at scale
that can shift things
and they're creatively pursuing goals much like very ambitious aggressive power-seeking humans creatively pursued their goals And so there are just structural analogies here that make it silly to not talk about agents as having motives and goals.
But the the real theme of the talk is that rate of iteration separates success from failure. And if you can get a fast iteration loop, that really overcomes many other things you're going to run into. And this effect is so severe. I mean, if you can learn one thing every week and there's a competitor that's learning a thing every month, they will they will never matter.
But now, people know that, well, the risk of the status quo is actually extremely high. And so, even if there's risk in doing all the new things, well, this path also looks pretty dangerous. And so, I really think there's never been a better time for startups to to sell um and to have their products get adopted at, you know, pretty meaningful scale right out of the gate.
And so, we kind of realized at that point, too, that maybe it's not a great strategy to to place your your development platform bet on on technology that's licensed from a competitor.
the likelihood of inspiring someone to build a competitor was too high, and the return on sharing was too low to justify the exposure. That threshold has effectively collapsed to zero.
Some other comparison is like, Opus is like the coworker that is a little silly sometimes, but it's really funny and you keep him around. And Codex is like the, the weirdo in the corner that you don't wanna talk to, but is reliable and gets shit done.
the thing that is the biggest competitor for any new accelerator is kind of even the previous generation of Nvidia right I mean in a fleet what I'm going to look at is the overall TCO
But Google has never had that DNA of like, "This is a product we should sell." The Google Cloud, which is a separate organization from the TPU team, which is a separate organization from the DeepMind team, which is a separate organization from the Search team. There's a lot of bureaucracy here.
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