Domain experts consistently underestimate how quickly AI can master their field and surpass them, because they mistake human difficulties for universal difficulty.
I think for a very long time we had this this almost nebulous way of thinking about page load times. And the team felt like it was finally time to come up with a more nuanced perspective around how we reason about performance.
you need to somehow internalize it and it has to be relatively effortless and automatic. It has to become automatic at some level and then you can move through life fairly smoothly in a socially very complex way.
we are systematically likely to overestimate our own individual awesomeness, and to underestimate the external power asymmetries that magnify our voices.
But now with Claude Code on my VPS in the last year, it just live edits on my production server, which sounds like it should go wrong but it just doesn't, it's very careful and only twice in 12 months messed up which meant my site didn't load for 10 seconds which is OK
Scalability is just like what mechanisms we have for dealing with changes in load. If load increases, how can we add computing capacity to a system, for example, so that the system still continues working?
generally, like you just want the the cost and the computing capacity to be roughly proportional to the load that you have. And at the low end, that means actually being able to scale down to something that is extremely cheap to run.
it required a different way of thinking and the cognitive load might be a little higher but the output is dramatic and we have seen our best engineer double their output.
As I’ve written about extensively, people consistently underestimate how many others in their country “believe” in climate change or support action on it.
A Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory study found that state-level load growth from 2019 to 2024 — including growth driven by data centers, manufacturing, and electrification — was associated with lower average retail electricity prices, not higher ones.
And Russians will hate me for saying this, and I probably will get a whole load of bots on the back of it, but the truth is, it is not the street fighting that destroys Sixth Army, it is the encirclement, the subsequent encirclement.
And so the great mistake of the past years was to forget how fundamental inflation was to the rise of the last political order and to profoundly underestimate how much inflation would change the current political order.
Until we develop better ways to bridge this gap - aligning what analysts understand with what is formally forecast - we'll continue to see the same pattern: reality consistently outperforming conservative predictions.
The only way you can make H2FC cars look cheaper than BEVs is to underestimate or ignore the cost of hydrogen production and infrastructure, socialise it, and then load the entire cost of grid build-out onto the marginal BEV.
In a sense, it’s not the impact hypothesis that is central to what I’m saying, it’s the Younger Dryas that’s central to what I’m saying. And the Younger Dryas required a trigger, something caused it.
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