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Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.

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  Quarterback sneak touchdowns mainly reflect the offensive line and opportunity rather than quarterback skill.

  Their words

  Sneaks are almost purely a result of the offensive line and/or opportunities.

  QBERT 2026 NFL quarterback ratingsnatesilver.net

Creator of Ruby on Rails, CTO of 37signals, and creator of Omarchy.

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  Falling birth rates make a society less able to be hopeful, because nihilism creeps in when people have no stake in the future.

  Their words

  I think this is one of the great tragedies of the moment, is the falling birth rates are making it more difficult for people to be excited about a more prosperous future that is difficult to get to. Because if we're planting trees of which our children will not sit in the shades, I don't know, maybe we should just make some lumber and burn it all down, right? I think there's a nihilism that can sneak into society much more easily when we are not DNA invested in the future

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Professor of international affairs at Johns Hopkins SAIS and co-author, with Abraham Newman, of Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy.

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  Silicon Valley's actual trajectory increasingly resembles Philip K. Dick's paranoid, hallucinatory fiction rather than the optimistic space-age visions of Asimov and Clarke.

  Their words

  Increasingly, it is looking much more like the one anticipated by the drugged-up 1960s oeuvre of Philip K Dick, filled with deranged billionaires, machines that claim consciousness, hallucinated worlds and political breakdown.

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Writer and artist, author of Steal Like an Artist; publishes a weekly newsletter and an annual list of the books he read.

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  Muybridge

  Their words

  I think this book is a contemporary masterpiece? A cartoonist at the top of his game, a perfect meeting of subject and medium, and beautiful book design by Drawn and Quarterly.

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Co-founder and chief scientist of Safe Superintelligence Inc., and previously co-founder and chief scientist of OpenAI.

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  Once AI starts to feel powerful rather than mistake-prone, every AI company will become far more paranoid about safety than it is today.

  Their words

  I do think that at some point the AI will start to feel powerful actually and I think when that happens we will see a big change in the way all AI companies approach safety.

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Founder of Telegram, and before it of VK.

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  Telegram's Secret Chats are the most secure means of communication today.

  Their words

  At the same time, if you were really paranoid, you think, I don't want to be screenshotted, I don't want to have any leaks, I don't even trust Telegram, I only trust code. Secret Chats are the best option. I believe is the most secure means of communication today.

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Co-founder and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. He wrote The Reformed Broker for over a decade, now publishes the Downtown Josh Brown newsletter, and co-hosts The Compound and Friends.

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  The Intelligent Investor

  Their words

  He has been a confidant of Buffett and Munger, a co-author with Daniel Kahneman, an editor on two revised editions of Ben Graham’s masterpiece The Intelligent Investor, considered to be the best book on investing ever written.

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