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korrents.com
Forecasting can turn subjective regulatory judgment calls into objectively observable bets about the future.Their words
Forecasting could fill this role, turning subjective judgment calls into objectively observable bets about the future.
AI Superforecasting Should Transform The FDAastralcodexten.com
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Nathan Lambert Bluesky
A big problem with the AI forecasting discourse is that people ask “when will AI replace X job?” When in reality, AI will slowly replace a bunch of the sub-skills needed to do the job, but rarely all of them.
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16 September
10 September
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Many frontier lab employees, especially at Anthropic, are out of touch and this will impact their forecasting and/or descriptions of current AI events.
7 September
26 July
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And truth be told, it is way harder than you think. And but you you don't want your mind to be to be there. You want your mind to be, how hard can it be? And let the suffering come to you a little bit at a time.
4 June
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rather than thinking about individual forecasts like what me and Phil are going to do, rather looking at kind of like basically generating prediction markets, where you get aggregate forecasts, where you get like kind of wisdom of the crowd effects. And kind of the reason that I think this is because we have been famously terrible at forecasting.
27 February
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