AI + coding is clearly the future. Right now many AI companies are heavily subsidizing the cost of AI-driven engineering. What happens when those subsidies disappear and pricing models change, after we’ve built development workflows that depend on AI at every step? 🤔
The craft of writing code will disappear. Yes, there are still Italian shoe makers around. But look at your feet. The craft of building software will be more important than ever.
And so basically everything that we can verify reasonably well with some feedback loop, the AIS are doing pretty well on. And that's sufficient to make AR and D go quite fast and to continue. But there's some parts of of developing uh aligned and safe AIs that are more subtle, hard to check, depend on, you know, detailed in the weeds things.
by making the sonic boom disappear entirely, we are able to put aside a question that had long plagued people talking about supersonic flight, which is how quiet is quiet enough? If there's no boom at all, there's nothing to argue about.
But there are now at least three randomized control trials that have shown that omega-3 status and B vitamin status interact and they're dependent on one another. So, if you give uh B vitamins to somebody who has elevated homocyine, you bring down their homocyine, but they have poor omega-3 levels, you don't see any benefit.
While there are certainly some benefits to these programs, YIMBYs are right to doubt that housing subsidies alone are a scalable solution to affordability challenges.
And even the cost issue with AI is probably going to be like once the subsidies start running out, which we're starting to see, I think that's going to be a really big issue where maybe all these companies that embraced AI programming are now going to like cut back on it.
So you know, just like internet, you can see some of them turn out to be very big like Amazon, like the Netflix and then some of them is kind of go sideways and disappeared or being acquired. And so I think to me is the same approach.
And you have to have a robust and resilient supply chain. You cannot just depend on one or two player in different geographical. And so, I think, you know, the more and more people going to realize making in United States is critical.
The governed have something the governors need: labor, tax revenue, military service, consumer spending. This dependency is the source of democratic leverage.
there I feel like in academia, I have the freedom to work on things that go against this commercial incentive of companies and say like, "Actually, no, I'm going to do what I think is right for the users."
I mean, I I I I do believe that that hybrid um human plus AIs will will dominate mathematics for a lot longer. It it's It will depend It will require some additional breakthroughs uh beyond what we already have.
I think the trillions of dollars a year market, maybe all of the national security implications and the safety implications that I wrote about in adolescence of technology can happen without it, but I I I also think we, and I imagine others, are working on it. And I think there's a good chance that that, you know, that we get there within the next year or two.
That, that gets into the whole arch of every app is just a very slow API now, if they want or not. And that through personal agents a lot of apps will disappear.
As with self driving cars, most of the early players in humanoid robots, will quietly shut up shop and disappear. Those that remain will pivot and redefine what they are doing, without renaming it, to something more achievable and with, finally, plausible business cases.
Because not having religion does not mean not having law or morality or sensitivity or consideration or love or any of those things. None of those things depends on religion, and those are the things which are important.
There's even a case to be made that those policies actually depressed the manufacturing share of GDP: by boosting output and capacity above where they would have been otherwise, subsidies probably contributed to the sustained decline in prices for China's manufactured goods over the past few years, weighing on their share of nominal output.
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