Humans are humans are are shockingly simple, you know, uh, if you think about the experience you have with somebody that's just trying to cross the street, if, uh, you know, if the light doesn't turn, you know, doesn't say they can walk fast enough, they'll just keep hitting that button. That's the same experience they have on the internet.
The demand for inference is growing. So, like I don't think it's linearly growing. I think it might even be exponentially growing. But we haven't made our production of GPUs grow exponentially. That's like kind of a linear process. So as those lines intersect, there's going to be uh tightening.
by listing out all these jobs to be done, you know, really for the for the community journey and for advertisers as well, it became very clear where we could use agents, where we needed to be very focused in terms of building cross-functional teams around those jobs supported by AI tools.
we just assume that there's no upper bound on how long it might take for a message to go over the network. So, you send a message, it might arrive within 100 microseconds, or it might take 10 years.
The link between venture capital and evangelical Christianity was closer than I thought. They're not just analogous; they deliberately cross-pollinate.
These corner allocations create a distinct source of cross-market misallocation, separate from the aggregate quantity loss (the Harberger triangle) and from within-market misallocation emphasized in prior work.
A House of Dynamite. A very tough watch, but I thought this was fantastic as a tour of some of the different kinds of people who hold the fate of every single person on the planet in their hands every damn day. They’re tired, stressed, distracted, at cross-purposes with themselves, set in their ways, more celebs than leaders, and mediocre. And none of them have ever seen Dr. Strangelove? (A)
Um so I almost feel like because the internet is so terrible, we actually have to sort of like build really big models to compress all that. Uh most of that compression is memory work instead of like cognitive work. But what we really want is the cognitive part actually delete the memory
Although the cross-sectional relationship between national income and fertility is negative, the longitudinal relationship between national income and fertility is positive: economic booms create baby booms, economic busts create baby busts.
Decades of grading data; standardized test scores; cross-sectional, longitudinal, observational, and experimental studies; along with many other types of ancillary and convergent evidence, ultimately tell the same story: education can raise the absolute performance of most students modestly, but it almost never meaningfully reshuffles the relative distribution of ability and achievement
With AI, breakout times could conceivably be very short - it could be hours, minutes, or even seconds for some very specific but important change to occur.
However, with so many different software projects out there, each moving so rapidly and depending on and being used by so many other projects, it becomes practically-inevitable that some regressions "like that one" happen, almost constantly.
But, if you ever have a line item on your roadmap that says simplify onboarding, please please cross it out. It's not going to work because simplifying onboarding is an action.
In fact, even though growth in average infrastructure costs over time is documented, there is very little cross-national correlation between GDP per capita and per-km subway construction costs.
And there’s still a lot of impetus in the physics community to think that non-equilibrium physics will explain life. But I think that’s not the right approach. I don’t think ultimately the solution to what life is there, and I don’t really think entropy has much to do with it unless it’s entirely reformulated.
Sometimes people think that complexity or life or whatever is fighting against the second law of thermodynamics, fighting against the increase of entropy. That is precisely the wrong way to think about it. We are surfers riding the wave of increasing entropy. We rely on increasing entropy to survive.
I used to love to speculate on that question. I have realized since that I think it’s very poorly formed, and that people use extremely different definitions for what AGI is. So I think it makes more sense to talk about when we’ll build systems that can do capability X or Y or Z, rather than when we fuzzily cross this one mile marker.
The idea is that making changes in your life, especially when learning new skill sets, requires you to cross a moat of low status, a period of time where you are actually bad at the thing or fail to know things that are obvious to other people.
So we keep coming back to this answer of nature wants to increase information, but decrease entropy. So find order, but constantly increase the information scale.
When I talked about will GPT12 be AGI, my answer is no. Of course not. I mean, cross-entropy loss is never going to get you there. You need probably RL in fancy environments in order to get something that would be considered AGI-like.
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