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Venture capitalist and founder of Theory Ventures, previously a partner at Redpoint. Writes a near-daily blog on startups, SaaS metrics, data and AI.

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  Safely routing AI tasks to cheaper models requires accumulated observation of many prior task outcomes.

  Their words

  Routing to a cheap model is only safe if you know which tasks it clears, & that knowledge comes from watching ten thousand versions of the same work.

  The Harness Margin Opportunitytomtunguz.com

Creator of Ruby on Rails, CTO of 37signals, and creator of Omarchy.

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  There is no accumulated advantage in agentic coding: someone who ignored the whole of the past year could catch up to the frontier in two weeks.

  Their words

  There's not any accumulation, which is in some ways a great relief.

  youtube.com

Founded PSPDFKit in 2011 and ran it for a decade. Came back from a break to work on AI agents — the OpenClaw project, and OpenAI, joined in February 2026. Writes at steipete.me.

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  Clearing an agent's session is now often a disadvantage, because the accumulated context helps the model more than a clean start does.

  Their words

  And these days it's more like my sessions are topics. clearing the session sometimes even a disadvantage because there's so much information in there that helps the agent.

  Peter Steinberger: "Fun Is Velocity"youtube.com

Co-founder and CEO of OpenAI; previously president of Y Combinator.

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  In this era fluency with AI tools beats years of accumulated experience, so seniority is now a liability rather than an edge.

  Their words

  but I would I would bet that this generally will cut against many years of experience in favor of people who have a lot of fluency with the tools.

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Founder and editor-in-chief of MacStories, writing about Apple software, iPad workflows and automation since 2009. He co-hosts the AppStories podcast.

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  Lock Launcher

  Their words

  my favorite “launcher” app for iOS is a utility called Lock Launcher, which I’ve been using on and off for the last couple of years.

  macstories.net

AI researcher at OpenAI; built the poker systems Libratus and Pluribus and the Diplomacy agent Cicero, and works on reasoning models.

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  Humanity's advantage is accumulated shared knowledge rather than higher intelligence — and AI models, which vanish with their context window, have none of it.

  Their words

  it's not that humans have become smarter over it's not that they evolved to become smarter over, you know, the past 50,000 years. It's that humans are able to do a lot more today than they were back in caveman times because there have been billions of humans thinking for a long time and building off of each other's accumulated knowledge.

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Economist at Oxford's Global Priorities Institute; works on what advanced AI would do to growth, saving and the long-run economy.

From one piece The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there

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  Automating everything except the ballerina need not raise labour's share, because the marginal value of the automated stuff falls faster than its quantity rises.

  Their words

  then the quantity of everything that's not a ballerina, say, goes to infinity, but our the marginal utility in that stuff goes to zero faster than the quantity is rising.

  youtube.com

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  The share of income spent on things only a human can do will stay negligible, because new things to buy keep being invented faster than we satiate on the old ones.

  Their words

  but of course, that's not what's happened, because as we've accumulated more wealth and you know, more advanced machines and and so on, we've expanded the range of things other than singers to spend our money on, and the share spent on singers has stayed sort of negligible. Um so likewise, that's sort of my central prediction about how future unfolds, though I it could go either way.

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  There is an unsatiating reason to want wealth that has nothing to do with greed: a classical utilitarian wants resources in order to create new happy beings.

  Their words

  when I think about why it might be good to have a lot of wealth in the future as a good classical utilitarian, to me, the value is or at least one way you could have a kind of almost unsatiating uh utility function in in having wealth in the future is to create new happy beings, right? They just add to the total welfare of the world.

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Writer on learning and skill acquisition; author of Ultralearning and Get Better at Anything, known for the MIT Challenge and the Year Without English.

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  Expertise is an enormous accumulated library of small facts and skills, which is why no method can shortcut the sheer volume of learning it takes.

  Their words

  The boring truth is that expertise in most subjects is largely a matter of having an enormous library of knowledge and skill.

  scotthyoung.com

Founder and chief analyst of SemiAnalysis; reports on semiconductor supply chains, AI datacentre economics and what the chip export controls actually do.

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  Elon Musk can probably build the cleanroom for a million-wafer fab, but he cannot develop the process technology quickly, because that knowledge is accumulated rather than invented.

  Their words

  but I think he can build the uh clean room. It'll take a year or two. Maybe initially it won't be super fast, but then over time you'll get faster and faster at it. But then the really complex part is actually developing the process technology and building wafers. And I don't think he can develop that uh quickly. I think that has a lot of built-up knowledge.

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Co-founder of Superlogical, started in 2026 to build server-side terminal infrastructure; creator of Ghostty. Co-founded HashiCorp and created Vagrant and Terraform before that.

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  Chatbot interfaces are the wrong tool for meaningful coding work, because you are mostly hoping the model recalls the right answer and correcting it requires a human in the loop.

  OpenAIGoogle

  Their words

  Immediately cease trying to perform meaningful work via a chatbot (e.g. ChatGPT, Gemini on the web, etc.). Chatbots have real value and are a daily part of my AI workflow, but their utility in coding is highly limited because you're mostly hoping they come up with the right results based on their prior training, and correcting them involves a human (you) to tell them they're wrong repeatedly.

  My AI Adoption Journeymitchellh.com

Investment researcher and engineer who runs Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, writing on macroeconomics, currency systems and equity analysis.

From one piece Why Most Cryptocurrencies Won’t Accrue Value 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there

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  Utility blockchains that provide useful services tend not to accrue much long-term value to their coinholders, unlike a winning monetary protocol.

  Their words

  Utility protocols face heavy competition, and thus their value trends toward their marginal cost of operation.

  Why Most Cryptocurrencies Won’t Accrue Valuelynalden.com

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  Decentralized finance mainly converts custodial risk into technical risk rather than eliminating risk altogether.

  Their words

  While there is some utility value in DeFi, it basically lets users transform custodial risk into technical risk (e.g. bridge protocol hacks), which is not a free lunch.

  Why Most Cryptocurrencies Won’t Accrue Valuelynalden.com

Indian technology consultant and writer. Former editor of Beautiful Pixels; writes about Apple hardware and Mac software at nuclearbits.com.

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  CleanShot X

  Their words

  This is the best screenshot utility for Macs. You’d think how much can there be in a screenshot utility, and CleanShot X will still color you surprised.

  nuclearbits.com

Structural engineer and senior infrastructure fellow at the Institute for Progress; writes Construction Physics on why physical things cost what they cost.

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  Data centres and the grid that feeds them run on incompatible clocks: one is a two-year project, the other a multi-decade investment.

  data centersenergy

  Their words

  Utility companies see major electrical infrastructure as a long-term investment to be built in response to sustained demand growth.

  How to Build an AI Data Centerconstruction-physics.com

Neuroscientist at UC Davis; studies memory and wrote Why We Remember.

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  Memory does not simply decline with age — an older brain's job changes to passing on accumulated knowledge rather than forming new episodic memories.

  Their words

  about this idea that really when you’re older in most societies, your job is no longer to form new episodic memories, it’s to pass on the memories that you already have, this knowledge about the world, what we call semantic memory, to pass on that semantic memory to the younger generations, pass on the culture.

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American author of The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck and Everything Is F*cked. Writes essays and book reviews at markmanson.net.

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  A person's identity is essentially the sum of their accumulated associations and repeated habits.

  Their words

  Take the sum total of those associations and you get a person's identity.

  How to Conquer Your Biggest Fearmarkmanson.net