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Robin Hanson x.com
Huh, a LOT of math problems have substantial chances of being solved soon:
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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19 September
8 September
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Their words
Even if everyone tries as hard as is plausible, Chain of Thought monitoring will probably never be easier than it is now and will get harder over time. In a year, chances are very high it will not be able to serve the function it is currently being asked to serve.
31 August
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korrents.com
AI systems are not sentient, and the odds of them being sentient are vanishingly small.Their words
I am very much opposed to the view that the AIs are sentient, or might be sentient. I view that as a category error , and the chances of it being true are vanishingly small.
25 August
13 August
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korrents.com
Success in cultural and professional fields is driven more by chance and path dependence than by talent.Their words
much cultural success is stochastic (the experimental evidence suggests that talent only moderately predicts success in culture markets), and that path dependence shapes chances of success
22 June
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Their words
Allison Schrager is very good, including her new book Worth the Risk: The Seven Myths that Keep Us from Taking the Chances We Need to Take
1 May
7 January
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Recommendsaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Made to Stick: Why Some Ideas Survive and Others DieTheir words
The instant classic about why some ideas thrive, why others die, and how to improve your idea’s chances.
30 September 2025
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